3 Reasons The Bucs Might Disappoint In 2023

There’s a lot of negativity surrounding the 2023 Bucs. As soon as Tom Brady retired, it’s like the NFL world saw it as a chance to flip a switch and go back to treating Tampa Bay like the losing franchise it was for over a decade pre-Brady. In doing so, a lot of talented players are being overlooked and written off and the Bucs are being looked at as a team destined to tank for a top-five pick.

And yes, if you read the headline of this article, you’ve surely realized that there is more negativity ahead. This isn’t to say that the national view of the Bucs is correct by any stretch. It’s not to say they’re wrong. This is a team that figures to have a wide range of outcomes this season. The truth is, we don’t know until the pads come on and toe meets leather, as the great Gene Deckerhoff would say.

Yesterday, we outlined three reasons the Bucs might surprise in 2023. And if you’ll allow me to editorialize a little further on that point, I’d lean just a little more toward that side of things than I would the alternative. And this article isn’t being written to play to the ongoing negativity — it’s more of a way to point out some very real concerns that could stand in the way of Tampa Bay succeeding this season.

So, in the interest of evening everything out, here are three reasons the Bucs might disappoint in 2023.

Persistent Quarterback Questions?

Bucs QBs Kyle Trask, Baker Mayfield and John Wolford – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

There was always going to be a bit of a dropoff from Tom Brady to the Bucs’ next quarterback. And who will that quarterback be? It’s down to a competition between 2018 No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield and 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask. Mayfield feels like the favorite to win the job, but training camp and the preseason will go a long way in deciding things.

It’s not that neither Mayfield nor Trask is capable of getting the job done. Mayfield is only a couple of years removed from leading the Browns to 11 wins and their first playoff victory since 1995. Trask set SEC passing records in his final year at Florida in 2020 and has since sat behind the greatest quarterback of all time, biding his time to jump on the opportunity to lead the Bucs in the post-Brady years.

Add in the fact that Tampa Bay now has an offensive coordinator in Dave Canales who wants to make things easier on his quarterbacks, and you can see a path to success for whoever wins the quarterback job out of camp.

But there’s also the potential for this to go wrong. Mayfield, who is on his fourth team in a year and a half, could win the job out of camp and stumble out of the gates as the Bucs start the season at something like 1-4. Does the team then switch to Trask? What if he proves to be a wasted second-round pick three seasons after he was drafted and struggles himself? Does Mayfield come back in?

There’s a reality where neither quarterback is the quarterback of the future for this team. And a quarterback carousel would really damage the potential of this 2023 squad. If you’re seeing a lot of both quarterbacks by the time the regular season rolls around, it’ll probably mean bad things for Tampa Bay.

Uncertainty In The Trenches

Bucs DL Logan Hall – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The quarterback position isn’t the only one going through a state of transition this offseason. Both sides of the line of scrimmage are going to look different for the Bucs in 2023. The changes made were and are probably for the better in the long run, but the immediate results could be spotty while both the offensive and defensive lines really round into form.

Change on the offensive line was necessary. It was time to part ways with left tackle Donovan Smith after a rough 2022 season, especially given the cap savings that the move yielded. And given the scheme change, it made sense to offload a smaller guard in Shaq Mason. That trade saved Tampa Bay some additional cap space.

The result of those changes is an offensive line that looks to have new starters at four of the five positions. One of those may not count as Tristan Wirfs, an All-Pro talent, is moving from right tackle to left tackle. But other than him and Ryan Jensen at center, the offensive line is set to look much different. The left guard job is Matt Feiler’s to lose, while the right side may feature rookie Cody Mauch at guard and Luke Goedeke at tackle after his struggles at guard during his rookie season.

Quick throws and designed quarterback boots/waggles will help the offensive line, but it’s still a group with some questions. If it doesn’t come together and gel like the Bucs hope it will, that’s a fast track to the offense staying stuck in neutral yet again in 2023.

On the defensive line, Tampa Bay got much younger. The team needed that, but there are bound to be growing pains as that happens. Vita Vea will still man the middle, but he may be flanked by a rookie in Calijah Kancey and a second-year, unproven guy in Logan Hall.

There’s a little depth in Greg Gaines and Pat O’Connor, but this move to a younger, quicker defensive line could take some time to really pay off. If it does, the Bucs could deal with some struggles on the defensive side of the ball this season, which is supposed to be their strength.

The Bucs Are Banking On A Lot Of “Ifs”

Bucs WR Russell Gage and OLB Shaq Barrett – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

As talented as the Bucs are at different positions up and down their roster, they’re also heading into the season with a lot of “ifs.” At plenty of spots, Tampa Bay has talented players who can help the team make some noise if things break the right way. But that’s if things do break the right way. Consider these:

-If Shaq Barrett bounces back…
-If Joe Tryon-Shoyinka takes the next step…
-If Rachaad White turns into a true starting caliber running back…
-If Russell Gage or another No. 3 emerges…
-If Devin White puts his trade request behind him and plays at a high level…
-If they found a gem in Josh Hayes at nickel…
-If they found the right kicker to replace Ryan Succop…
-If Todd Bowles improves his game management…

Not all of these have to work out, but a fair few of them need to for the Bucs to get to where they want to go. The pass rush is certainly an uncertainty, as the team needs Barrett to return to form after tearing his Achilles and hitting the wrong side of 30. Tryon-Shoyinka has yet to establish himself as a clear No. 2, and this is the year he has to do it.

The nickel cornerback position is perhaps the other major question mark on this list. Tampa Bay drafted Hayes in the sixth round out of Kansas State and will hope he can assume the slot corner role as Antoine Winfield Jr. moves back to a full-time safety role. If it’s not Hayes, who could it be? Dee Delaney is in the mix too, but with either guy, there are going to be questions until proven otherwise.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin make up one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL, but behind them, it’s unclear who the Bucs can count on. Russell Gage can’t seem to stay healthy enough to be a reliable No. 3, while the rest of the depth chart features rookies and veteran David Moore.

That’s a long list of “ifs” in general, and the Bucs have to hope many of them fall in their favor. If very few of them do, Tampa Bay may be looking at a disappointing fall from where they have been during the last three seasons.