2023 Day Two Prospects & Their Dynasty Range of Outcomes (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to the next article in our Dynasty Range Outcomes series where we will use historical data to break down some of the top prospects in the 2023 class. If you have not already checked out the series primer, be sure to give it a read. In that article, I outline the methodology and the data points for our analysis –  which include:

• Draft Capital
• Career Production
• Declare Status
• Weight

By using these data points, we can compile a list of players that have entered the league with a similar profile for each prospect. And by analyzing their similarities, we can project each player’s range of outcomes for dynasty purposes. If you are interested in a breakdown of some of the first-round prospects in this class, you can find that article on our site as well! 

Quick Note: You may have clicked on this article hoping to find a breakdown of Devon Achane. However, similar to Jahmyr Gibbs, Achane is a true unicorn. Over the last decade, we have not seen many day-two players with his combination of above-average production and smaller frame. The good news is that Achane is already gaining weight ahead of his rookie year per Miami Herald’s Daniel Oyefusi, who recently reported that he is now up to 192 pounds. At that frame, the closest comp I could find in my database is Giovani Bernard. Even that feels like a stretch as Bernard was about 10 pounds heavier, slightly less athletic, and more productive with North Carolina. Regardless, I still feel confident in Achane’s dynasty outlook despite the slight uncertainty within his profile.

Data Source: All metrics used in this article were sourced from cfbfastR, dating back to 2010 for wide receivers and 2013 for tight ends and running backs.

Jonathan Mingo – Carolina Panthers, WR

• Draft Capital: Day Two
• Declare Status: Non-Early Declare
• Weight: 220 pounds
• Career: 1.68 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt

Thresholds:

• Draft Capital: Day Two
• Declare Status: Non-Early Declare
• Weight: 210 to 230*
• Career: 1.43 – 1.93 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt

*Thresholds extended due to limited sample size

In a class filled with several smaller slot receivers, Mingo stands out as a more traditional prospect at 220 pounds. Despite this, you will notice that his player comps are less than ideal. This is partially due to his production profile, averaging a modest 1.68 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt and only a 20.7% Receiving Yards Market Share. However, as Scott Barrett has pointed out, Mingo struggled through injuries in his junior season and experienced a role change midway through his senior campaign. 

On the flip side, we want to see wide receiver prospects produce early in their collegiate careers as that generally leads to a much higher fantasy hit rate. Unfortunately, Mingo does not check that box as he only averaged 13.7% of his team’s receiving yards in his first two seasons. Therefore, looking at the list above, his comps leave much to be desired. Naturally, Michael Pittman Jr. offers some hope that Mingo could develop into a fantasy-relevant player. As for the rest of the list, we are looking at several day-two prospects who underwhelmed in the league. So while his landing spot could present plenty of opportunity, we may need to temper our expectations for Mingo’s dynasty outlook.

Josh Downs – Indianapolis Colts, WR

• Draft Capital: Day Two
• Declare Status: Early Declare
• Weight: 171 pounds
• Career: 2.66 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt

Thresholds:

• Draft Capital: Day Two
• Declare Status: Early Declare
• Weight: 161 to 181*
• Career: 2.26 – 3.06 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt

*Thresholds extended due to limited sample size

With a top-tier production profile, Josh Downs is one of my favorite day-two prospects in this class. His sophomore campaign was especially elite as he averaged an absurd 40.1% Receiving Yards Market Share and 3.49 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt. To put that into perspective, those numbers exceeded Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s breakout season in 2021.

Unfortunately, his list of player comps leaves us with more questions than answers as they were all recently drafted. On a positive note, we have seen glimpses of potential from each player. After the Jets’ bye week in 2021, Elijah was the WR8 in points per game before dealing with a couple of injuries that slowed down his career. Similarly, Rondale was on his way to a breakout campaign in 2022 (career-high 21.9% target share) before a groin strain ended his season early. In other words, we have yet to see their full potential as they have all struggled through a variety of injuries to start their careers. So despite the limited sample size, there should be some optimism for Downs as he will likely play an immediate role for the Colts in his rookie year.

Jayden Reed – Green Bay Packers, WR

• Draft Capital: Day Two
• Declare Status: Non-Early Declare
• Weight: 187 pounds
• Career: 2.09 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt

Thresholds:

• Draft Capital: Day Two
• Declare Status: Non-Early Declare
• Weight: 182 to 192
• Career: 1.77 – 2.40 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt

We already established in our series primer that non-early declare wide receivers have a lower fantasy hit rate, especially without a positive production profile to back up their draft capital. Despite being a five-year prospect, Jayden Reed did have a productive collegiate career which is why his outlook is a little more optimistic. In fact, Reed never had a collegiate season below a 24% receiving yards market share as he was an immediate producer dating back to his freshman year at Western Michigan. Therefore, if we compare his comp list to Jonathan Mingo’s, it becomes very evident that Reed is the better prospect. 

Naturally, the three players that stand out are Emmanuel Sanders, Diontae Johnson, and TY Hilton. And while Hilton presents the peak of Reed’s potential (multiple WR1 seasons), dynasty managers should be excited if he can produce multiple top-24 seasons similar to Johnson and Sanders. Of course, there is always a possibility that he never truly breaks out, struggling to find playing time just like Andy Isabella in his tenure with the Cardinals. But considering the upside that his profile presents, I do believe Reed is one of the better picks in the late second round of dynasty rookie drafts.

Zach Charbonnet – Seattle Seahawks, RB

• Draft Capital: Day Two
• Declare Status: Non-Early Declare
• Weight: 222 pounds
• Career: 1.39 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play

Thresholds:

• Draft Capital: Day Two
• Declare Status: Non-Early Declare
• Weight: 212 to 232*
• Career: 1.18 – 1.60 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play

*Thresholds extended due to limited sample size

Of course, the Seahawks had to ruin their backfield for fantasy purposes! 

Regardless, I still believe in Zach Charbonnet’s upside after an accomplished career at UCLA. And while Kenneth Walker will naturally limit his upside, Charbonnet can still be an effective flex option as the primary receiving running back for the Seahawks. Keep in mind, Seattle ranked 8th in the league in neutral situation passing rate (56.9%) on early-downs, which should continue as they also added Jaxon Smith-Njigba. If Charbonnet is on the field for those passing-down plays, he could provide immediate receiving production for fantasy.

If Walker were to, unfortunately, miss some time, we know that Charbonnet can carry the load based on his final two years at UCLA. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that his comp list includes several players – Eddie Lacy, Carlos Hyde, and Alvin Kamara – who were RB1s in their NFL careers. As for the middle range of outcomes, Charbonnet’s early career will likely mirror Charles Sims’, who was the primary receiving running back for the Buccaneers (11% target share) in his first two seasons. Therefore, I view this backfield as very similar to the Patriots in recent years. Walker will likely be the “Damien Harris” for the Seahawks, while Charbonnet could assume the “Rhamondre Stevenson” role.

Michael Mayer – Las Vegas Raiders, TE

• Draft Capital: Day Two
• Declare Status: Early Declare
• Weight: 249 pounds
• Career: 1.93 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt

Thresholds

• Draft Capital: Day Two
• Declare Status: Early Declare
• Weight: 244 to 254
• Career: 1.64 – 2.22 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt

One of the biggest surprises in the NFL draft was seeing Michael Mayer drop into the second round. Despite the slight decline in draft capital, Mayer still projects to be one of the best TEs we have seen in recent history. In fact, his 1.93 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt ranks 4th among drafted TEs over the last decade. As a result, his comp list is fairly short since we rarely see a tight end with such an accomplished production profile.

Naturally, Maxx Williams is the name that stands out as he never broke out in the NFL. However, keep in mind that Williams was an elite prospect coming out of Minnesota who unfortunately struggled through a myriad of injuries early in his career. On the other hand, Hunter Henry would present the top range of outcomes, finishing as a TE1 in points per game in four of his first six seasons. As I mentioned in my breakdown of Dalton Kincaid in last week’s article, tight ends usually break out in their second campaign. So while I am confident in Mayer’s long-term outlook, we need to temper our expectations for his first season with the Raiders.

Sam LaPorta – Detroit Lions, TE

• Draft Capital: Day Two
• Declare Status: Non-Early Declare
• Weight: 245 pounds
• Career: 1.61 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt

Thresholds:

• Draft Capital: Day Two
• Declare Status: Non-Early Declare
• Weight: 240 to 250
• Career: 1.36 – 1.85 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt

Sam LaPorta was quietly one of the most productive tight ends in this class, leading in college receiving yards market share at 25.2%. Coupled with early second-round draft capital and an outstanding landing spot, LaPorta could be a difference-maker for dynasty managers sooner rather than later. As for his comp list above, Jonnu Smith presents the lower range of outcomes, averaging a 9.7% target share and producing one TE1 season in his six-year career. Ideally, we would much rather see LaPorta produce similar to Ertz, who was an elite receiver for Philadelphia for many seasons. Even for Ertz, we saw him start his career rather slow before becoming a consistent TE1 (points per game) in seven of his last eight campaigns. Therefore, as I mentioned in the previous segment, we need to remember that tight ends take a while to acclimate to the league. In fact, we saw this most recently with Trey McBride, who coincidentally played behind Ertz for most of his rookie year. Regardless, I am still willing to invest in LaPorta, who projects to be one of the best long-term values at his current dynasty ADP.