2023 Day Three Prospects & Their Dynasty Range of Outcomes (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to the next article in our Dynasty Range Outcomes series where we will use historical data to break down some of the top prospects in the 2023 class. If you have not already checked out the series primer, be sure to give it a read. In that article, I outline the methodology and the data points for our analysis –  which include:

• Draft Capital
• Career Production
• Declare Status
• Weight

By using these data points for each prospect, we can compile a list of players that have entered the league with a similar profile. And by analyzing their similarities, we can project each player’s range of outcomes for dynasty purposes. If you are interested in a breakdown of the day one and two prospects in this class, you can also find those articles on our site.

Because there are several day-three prospects in this class, I had to narrow down the list significantly. If a player is missing and you are interested in their potential range of outcomes, feel free to reach out on Twitter @FF_MarvinE. You will also notice that there are no tight ends highlighted in this article, simply because day three tight ends rarely break out for fantasy (3.4% early-career hit rates). And while everyone wants to point at George Kittle, he just happens to be one of the very few day-three outliers with a productive NFL career. The hit rates for day three wide receivers and running backs are also fairly low. However, we can at least isolate our sample size based on their declare status and production to improve our hit rates at both positions.

Data Source: All metrics used in this article were sourced from cfbfastR, dating back to 2010 for wide receivers and 2013 for tight ends and running backs. 

Kayshon Boutte – New England Patriots, WR

• Draft Capital: Day Three
• Declare Status: Early Declare
• Weight: 195 pounds
• Career: 1.75 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt

Thresholds:

• Draft Capital: Day Three
• Declare Status: Early Declare
• Weight: 190 to 200
• Career: 1.48 – 2.01 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt

Kayshon Boutte was widely regarded as a day-two pick heading into his junior year after averaging 26.2% of LSU’s receiving yards and 37.8% of their receiving touchdowns in two seasons. In fact, Boutte had one of the most productive true freshman seasons in this class, behind only Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, and Jayden Reed in Receiving Yards Market Share. As a result, many expected him to continue to lead LSU’s offense in 2022. Unfortunately, the opposite happened as he took a significant step back – setting career lows in a variety of production metrics to close out his collegiate career. While some of this can be attributed to LSU’s coaching changes and Boutte’s ankle surgery, it is still unfortunate to see his draft stock decline so dramatically.

Despite a disappointing final year, Boutte enters the NFL with an accomplished profile, in part thanks to his impressive early-career production. As a result, his comp list provides some optimism that he could break out despite being selected in the sixth round. The two names that stand out are Kenny Stills and Amon-Ra St. Brown. While St. Brown presents the peak of Boutte’s potential, we should not forget that Stills also produced multiple flex-level seasons in his time with New Orleans and Miami. Of course, being a day-three pick, the floor is fairly low as Boutte could struggle to find consistent playing time in a crowded Patriots offense. But assuming he is fully recovered from his injuries, Boutte is still one of the better low-cost investments in dynasty rookie drafts.

Xavier Hutchinson – Houston Texans, WR

• Draft Capital: Day Three
• Declare Status: Non-Early Declare
• Weight: 203 pounds
• Career: 2.01 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt

Thresholds:

• Draft Capital: Day Three
• Declare Status: Non-Early Declare
• Weight: 198 to 208
• Career: 1.70 – 2.31 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt

The Houston Texans were in desperate need of talent and upside on the offensive end of the field, even after adding Dameon Pierce in last year’s draft. And to no surprise, the Texans selected C.J. Stroud with their first pick, while also adding multiple receiving weapons in the middle-to-later rounds. One of those receivers is Xavier Hutchinson, a five-year receiver who played the majority of his career at Iowa State. What immediately stands out in Hutchinson’s profile are his athletic measurables at 6’2” and 203 pounds, especially in a class filled with smaller slot receivers. From a production standpoint, Hutchinson was heavily involved in every season at Iowa State, never falling below 2.00 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt or a 25% market share. However, the caveat to his production is that he was already a Junior when he joined the Cyclones. Before that, he played for Blinn College (JuCo), averaging about 18% of his team’s receiving yards.

As a result, when I isolate my database for players with a similar profile, Hutchinson’s closest comps leave much to be desired. Unfortunately, non-early declare players that never reached elite production in college rarely break out for fantasy football. To provide context, Hutchinson had a total of 15 comps in my database. To avoid overloading the graphic, the receivers highlighted above are ones drafted in round six. You might be wondering, what happens when we look at all 15 players? Do his comps improve? The most productive players on this list were Malcolm Mitchell and Romeo Doubs, who have averaged around six to seven fantasy points per game so far in their careers. The group as a whole has averaged around four fantasy points per game. In short, even though Hutchinson is tied to Stroud long-term, I would much rather invest in someone like Zach Evans or Kayshon Boutte in the later rounds of rookie drafts.

Zach Evans – Los Angeles Rams, RB

• Draft Capital: Day Three
• Declare Status: Early Declare
• Weight: 202 pounds
• Career: 1.21 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play

Thresholds:

• Draft Capital: Day Three
• Declare Status: Early Declare
• Weight: 197 to 207
• Career: 1.02 – 1.39 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play

Similar to Boutte, Zach Evans’ stock has fallen significantly over the last two years. After ranking as the third-best running back prospect in his high school class, Evans quickly emerged as the lead running back at TCU. His sophomore year was particularly impressive, averaging an elite 2.01 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play and over 10% of the team’s receiving yards in six games. Despite his breakout season, he would surprisingly transfer out of TCU, joining Ole Miss in his final campaign. And while many expected Evans to build off a productive sophomore year, his numbers declined significantly across the board. His Scrimmage Yards per Team Play fell to 1.14 while playing behind a true freshman in Quinshon Junkins, who emerged as the RB1 midway through the season.

While his drop in draft capital reduces the likelihood of a meaningful role at the next level, if I had to take a chance on a late-round running back, Zach Evans would be at the top of the list. Not only did he display elite efficiency and production in moments throughout his collegiate career, but he is also an early-declare prospect – which we have seen break out at a much higher rate in the NFL. As you can see above, his closest comps provide plenty of optimism that he could develop into a fantasy-relevant running back. While Mark Walton and Travis Homer highlight the low floor that comes with day-three capital, Joseph Randle and Devonta Freeman were productive when given the opportunity. Freeman was especially elite, producing multiple RB1 campaigns in his career. And with Cam Akers set to enter free agency after this season, the Rams could turn to Evans as their lead running back if he can showcase the potential we saw in his time at TCU and Ole Miss.

DeWayne McBride – Minnesota Vikings, RB

• Draft Capital: Day Three
• Declare Status: Early Declare
• Weight: 215 pounds
• Career: 1.84 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play

Thresholds:

• Draft Capital: Day Three
• Declare Status: Early Declare
• Weight: 210 to 220
• Career: 1.56 – 2.11 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play

Sometimes all a running back needs to succeed for fantasy is a path to opportunities.

This brings us to DeWayne McBride, who has an excellent path to production after the Vikings recently parted ways with Dalvin Cook. While Alexander Mattison is the favorite to lead their backfield, I would keep an eye on McBride in both dynasty and redraft leagues. In his three years at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, he absolutely dominated as their lead running back. He finished his final two years with over 2000 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns, averaging an impressive 2.05 Yards per Team Play in 24 games. As a result, when we factor in his declare status, his closest comps are actually quite intriguing. Marlon Mack is by far the most accomplished player on the list, producing multiple top-24 seasons before an Achilles injury slowed down his career. Similarly, Devontae Booker was a backup running back for most of his time in the league, though he did showcase an ability to produce when given the opportunity in 2021. So while McBride’s chances of breaking out as a seventh-round pick are fairly slim, he is still an intriguing pick in dynasty drafts due to an impressive college production profile and a path to opportunity with the Vikings. 

Roschon Johnson – Chicago Bears, RB

• Draft Capital: Day Three
• Declare Status: Non-Early Declare
• Weight: 225 pounds
• Career: 0.80 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play

Thresholds:

• Draft Capital: Day Three
• Declare Status: Non-Early Declare
• Weight: 220 to 230
• Career: 0.68 – 0.92 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play

The Chicago Bears have one of the most difficult running back corps to project after David Montgomery decided to leave in free agency. As of today, they have a depth chart that consists of D’Onta Foreman, Khalil Herbert, and Travis Homer. In addition, they also selected Roschon Johnson out of Texas with their fourth-round pick. While he is now considered a running back in the NFL, Johnson only recently transitioned to this position. Before his time at Texas, he was a quarterback at Port Neches–Groves High School. However, due to a variety of injuries at the position, Johnson was given the opportunity at running back in his true freshman season with the Longhorns. Unfortunately for Johnson, he was never the RB1 – playing behind Keontay Ingram in 2019 and then Bijan Robinson in his final three seasons. As a result, he never eclipsed a 30% rushing share or 1.00 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play in any of his four seasons with Texas. While it may be easy to dismiss his lack of production due to Bijan’s presence on the team, it should still be concerning that he never broke out and only averaged 5.8 yards per touch in his career. As a result, the graphic above paints a disappointing picture as none of the running backs listed ever emerged in the NFL. So while there could be a reasonable path to opportunity if Herbert or Foreman are unable to seize control of the backfield, I am tempering my expectations based on Johnson’s limited profile coming out of Texas.