2-Point Conversion: Bucs HC Todd Bowles Called A Masterful Game

It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ post-game 2-Point Conversion column, which features two big statements, two probing questions and two bold predictions. The Bucs opened up the season as a road underdog, but came away with a hard-fought, 20-17 win against the Vikings at Minnesota.

Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense overcame a slow start, Chase McLaughlin nailed a 57-yard game-winner and Todd Bowles made all the right calls on defense – and took some big chances that paid off in a 1-0 start to the 2023 season.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1. Todd Bowles Called A Masterful Game

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles let out a big “YEAHHHHHHHHHH” in the locker room to celebrate his team’s 20-17 opening day win at Minnesota. And that was a well-deserved primal scream.

Not only did Bowles coach his ass off as a defensive coordinator with his unit winning the turnover battle 3-0 against the Vikings, but he switched up his zone coverages in the second half and shut down Minnesota’s Pro Bowl receiver Justin Jefferson.

Whether it was taking advantage of catching the Bucs in a double-corner blitz at the perfect time with a huge gain or winning on a route against Cover 3 with just Antoine Winfield Jr. as the single-high safety, Jefferson was a menace in the first half. He led the Vikings with seven catches for 138 yards at halftime.

But Bowles made adjustments and went away from the single-high safety look, opting for deeper coverages, such as Quarters (Cover 4) on occasion that was designed to provide help over the top and keep all passing plays in front of the defense to limit yards after catch. It worked, as Jefferson was held to two catches for 12 yards in the second half and the Vikings were outscored as a result, 10-7, over the last two quarters.

But beyond his role as defensive play-caller, Bowles excelled as a game manager, too. He took the right risks and his situational gambles paid off.

In the second half, Bowles went for it on a fourth-and-1 situation at the Bucs’ 32-yard line, and Baker Mayfield’s QB sneak proved to be successful. Bowles also eschewed going for it on fourth-and-3 at the Vikings 40-yard line, and trotted out Chase McLaughlin for a 57-yard field goal with 4:46 left. This backed up another Bowles’ gamble – cutting 36-year old kicker Ryan Succop, who was reliable inside of 45 yards but struggled beyond 50 yards, for McLaughlin’s bigger leg.

Bowles had a ton of confidence in his defense to hold a three-point lead with less than five minutes left in the game. That gamble paid off too in a quick three-and-out, with an excellent pass breakup by cornerback Carlton Davis III on a key third down.

After his defense got the ball back for the offense, Bowles approved a pass play on third-and-10 to pick up a first down with two minutes left and end the game, as opposed to running the ball and draining the clock a bit, but ultimately punting the ball back to Minnesota. Chris Godwin’s 11-yard catch sealed the win for the Bucs, so yet another Bowles gamble paid off.

“If you want to beat a team like that at their place in the first of the game, you can’t play conservative,” Bowles said. “We wanted to go for the win. We knew that going in. Dave [Canales] made a great call. Chris is very reliable. He made a great catch. Baker was playing a good ball game in the second half.”

In an interview in the Tampa Bay Times with Rick Stroud, Bowles admitted to feeling handcuffed last season while taking over for a suddenly-retired Bruce Arians in late March and having to inherit his staff – many of whom on the offensive side of the ball he disagreed with and ultimately fired. Now Bowles has the staff he wants playing the complementary style of football he wants and he’s coaching freer – and better – as a result.

It was a great start for the Bucs – and for their head coach – on Sunday.

STATEMENT 2. Baker Mayfield Is The Gritty QB The Bucs Need

As one member of the Bucs brass texted me after Sunday’s 20-17 opening day win, “It was not pretty, but it was gritty!”

That phrase perfectly summed up not only the play of the Bucs as a team on Sunday, but also of new quarterback Baker Mayfield.

Like the rest of the offense, Mayfield started off the game dreadfully, passing for just 11 yards as the offense went 0-of-5 on third downs until finally getting into rhythm with a two-minute drill that led to a 28-yard touchdown pass to Mike Evans right before halftime. That tied the game at 10-10. After completing just 6-of-15 passes for 63 yards in the first half, Mayfield completed 15-for-19 passes for 110 yards and another touchdown in the second half.

But Mayfield did more than just become an efficient passer in the second half.

He threw a clutch, sidearm touchdown to rookie Trey Palmer in the second half. Mayfield dove headfirst into the pile for a successful QB sneak on a risky fourth-and-1 at the Tampa Bay 32-yard. He stiff-armed a Vikings defender on one run, and then dashed for a daring first down on another run down the sidelines. Then he made a money throw to Chris Godwin for 11 yards on third-and-10 to seal the opening-day win for the Bucs.

“Baker is gutsy,” Bowles said. “He’s tough. The guys stayed behind him. The great thing is, when he was having problems, he wasn’t turning it over. He was giving our defense [a rest], kept them in the game. He kept getting out, but he wasn’t turning the ball over. He stuck with it. He made some gutsy runs at the end, and the offensive line came through for him. The receivers showed up, and it was a great team win.”

Victories are tough to come by in the NFL. Players and coaches should never apologize for winning – no matter how it looks.

Mayfield and Bowles certainly won’t.

“Not the prettiest start by any means,” Mayfield said. “Great environment, like we expected, really loud. Like we talked about being ready for their blitz package, we were, but every time we’d check, they would. That’s kind of the story of what you saw in the first half right there. Just one of those things that’s kind of a chess match at that point, but luckily we were able to drive the ball a little bit in kind of a two-minute, hurry up situation before the half. Got Mike a touchdown and capitalized from there.”

Mayfield said that the effectiveness of the offense will only get better as the season goes along and the unit grows together. Remember, the starting offense only played three series together in the preseason finale.

“Absolutely, it will definitely grow,” Mayfield said. Playing against Brian Flores, it’s quite the challenge. He’s a defensive mastermind, so it was a good test for us for our first match. Yeah, we’re going to grow. We’re going to get better. Offensively we have a long way to go, but we’ll take all the wins we can get. It’s extremely hard in this league.”

This is how the Bucs will win in 2023 as they continue to learn a new offense and get in sync with a new offensive line, a new play-caller and a new QB in Mayfield.

Play great defense, play turnover-free football (or close to it) and grind out wins with a more balanced offense under Dave Canales.

“It was a good win, it was a gritty win,” Bowles said.

Indeed it was – with a gritty Baker Mayfield leading the way.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: Who Was The Bucs’ Best Defender vs. Vikings?

Rookie nickelback Christian Izien and had a great NFL debut with a nice open-field tackle and a sensational, game-changing interception at the goal line with 16 seconds left before halftime to prevent Minnesota from taking a 17-10 lead into halftime. That was probably the play of the game.

Free safety Antoine Winfield Jr. also had a huge strip-sack and fumble recovery, as well as two touchdown-saving tackles on Justin Jefferson.

But don’t overlook the play of inside linebacker Devin White, who is playing in his fifth-year option season.

White was assignment-sound, focused and was a sure-tackler on Sunday, leading Tampa Bay with 12 stops. White and Lavonte David, who finished with eight tackles against the Vikings, were exceptional at sniffing out screens at the line of scrimmage. For a player who wants $20 million a year when he hits free agency next year, White certainly made a strong opening statement towards that goal.

“He played fast,” Bowles said of White. “Him and Lavonte – they both played all over the field. If it wasn’t one it was the other one. They did a good job of finding the hider in bootlegs. They did a good job cleaning up plays that the defensive line set up for them. And they did a good job of flying around, period. Both of them had double-digit tackles. Both of them were all over the place I thought they really showed their leadership.”

QUESTION 2: Why Couldn’t The Bucs Run The Ball?

There were a myriad of reasons why Tampa Bay struggled to run the ball effectively against Minnesota. The Bucs rushed for 73 yards on 33 carries (2.2 avg.) in the season opener after averaging just 75 yards per game last year with the league’s worst-ranked rushing attack.

So what has to happen for the Bucs’ ground game to be successful? Tampa Bay’s offensive line needs more time together to gel, as the entire unit only played together for three drives in the preseason finale. The tight ends need to make their blocks at line of scrimmage, too. The running backs need to hit the open holes, and when the holes are there they need to accelerate through them faster with a greater sense of urgency.

Yet head coach Todd Bowles was satisfied with the amount of carries the Bucs had, especially in the second, as it kept his defense off the field and fresher for the fourth quarter.

“I thought they were tough runs, considering the fronts they were playing, and they were taking it away, and they kind of had an extra guy every time,” Bowles said. “The run doesn’t always have to be pretty. If you can get 33 runs in, it keeps the defense off the field some, it keeps [the opponent defense] out there longer, and it keeps them honest. It keeps them off Baker some.

“It has a double-fold [effect]. The amount of carries are just as important as the yardage, if not more important. If we can stay with that and kind of stay balance it kind of keeps everybody in the game.”

When the Bucs went 0-of-5 on third downs to start the game, Bowles’ defense was getting gassed before halftime. They clearly had more time to rest in the second half as the offense went on a couple of long, sustained drives that resulted in 10 points – enough to beat Minnesota.

Keep in mind that Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores was brought in to fix the porous Minnesota run defense and deployed some very effective run blitzes, too. That certainly played a role in the lackluster rushing production.

But when it came to the team’s pass protection, Bowles was happy with the effort and the execution. Baker Mayfield was only hit twice and sacked once on Sunday.

“I thought they played tough,” Bowles said of the offensive linemen. “I thought they did a heck of a job considering all the looks they got. They were sending a lot of pressure all the time. They were almost blitzing every other play – if not every play almost. At least it looked that way.”

Generally speaking, the pass protection from the offensive line was quite good. The sack on Mayfield came on third-and-5 inside the Vikings red zone when Minnesota dropped eight defenders into coverage and only rushed three. That caused Mayfield to hold onto the ball while trying to find an open receiver.

Edge rusher Danielle Hunter was successfully blocked by right tackle Luke Goedeke initially, and Mayfield actually had two escape routes from the pocket, but saw linebackers underneath just past the line of scrimmage. Instead of fleeing the pocket to either scramble for yardage or throw the ball away, Mayfield actually backed up into Hunter for the sack instead of stepping up into the pocket and escaping. So the lone sack surrendered was more on the QB than it was on Goedeke.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: JTS Will Lose Starting Job With More Games Like He Had In Week 1

Sunday’s season opener was a disappointing game for Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. He had one tackle and one fumble recovery, and in this case, the box score scouting turned out to be pretty accurate. Tampa Bay’s former first-round pick was not very effective as a pass rusher, and still has too much finesse in his game.

Anthony Nelson played the fewest snaps (25) of any of the top four outside linebackers, and had three tackles and one sack. He was more impactful and played 14 fewer snaps than JTS played. Unless his play dramatically improves – and quickly – I could see Tryon-Shoyinka being replaced in the starting lineup by either Nelson or YaYa Diaby sooner rather than later. Perhaps by midseason.

PREDICTION 2: Bucs Improve To 2-0 By Beating Bears

The Bears looked awful in their opening-day, 38-20 loss at home to the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers. Justin Fields is still lightyears away from being a good NFL quarterback, as he lags behind other passers in reading defenses, going through his progressions, his accuracy and finding open receivers. Fields is a great runner, but the Bucs have the athletes and the speed on defense to corral, contain, and chase after him this Sunday.

The last time the Bears visited Raymond James Stadium, they lost 38-3 in Fields’ rookie season in 2021. This game will be closer, but still a Tampa Bay victory, as the Bucs move to 2-0 on season ahead of a big Monday Night Football game against the visiting Philadelphia Eagles.

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