2-Point Conversion: Bucs Defense Shows Growth In Loss

It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ post-game 2-Point Conversion column, which features two big statements, two probing questions and two bold predictions.

The Bucs fell to 3-2 on the year – yet still stay atop the NFC South division – after a 20-6 loss to the Detroit Lions. Tampa Bay’s offense sputtered and the running game couldn’t get on track, while the Bucs defense failed to help out with any takeaways for the first time this season. Still, there were some bright spots in Tampa Bay on Sunday – and it wasn’t just the glow of their bright creamsicle uniforms.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1: Bucs Defense Shows Growth In Loss To Lions

Jared Goff creamed (did you see what I did there?) the Bucs again by passing for 353 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Goff, who is in his third season in Detroit, completed 30-of-44 passes in helping the Lions win in Tampa Bay, 20-6, and improve to 5-1.

The former No. 1 overall pick in 2016 is playing at a Pro Bowl level and had the Lions averaging just under 30 points per game prior to Sunday. Even with the Bucs defense shutting down the run game, holding the Lions to just 40 yards on 22 carries, Goff was able to help Detroit convert 9-of-16 third downs by making the right, quick, decisive throws.

And when it mattered most, Goff was clutch, hitting Amon-Ra St. Brown for a 27-yard touchdown on third-and-13 right before halftime to give the Lions a 10-3 lead, and finding Jameson Williams downfield for a breathtaking, 45-yard scoring strike in the third quarter to push the score to 17-6.

Despite a day when Goff was nearly flawless, the young Bucs defense showed a lot of grit and growth as well. Not so much on third downs … especially third-and-long. But overall, Tampa Bay collected three sacks on the day and played really well against the run. The Bucs even held the Lions to 10 points below their season average.

It wasn’t just old man linebacker Lavonte David, who led the Bucs with nine tackles and a sack while continuing to beat Father Time. It was three of Tampa Bay’s youngsters along with the rock solid Vita Vea, who is playing at a Pro Bowl-caliber level, that really showed some promise.

Outside linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka had quality play against the run and also the pass, notching two hurries and a sack – his third of the season – against the Lions. With one more sack JTS will tie his single-season high, and is looking like a more consistent edge rusher this season under the tutelage of new position coach George Edwards.

“It was one of Joe’s more complete games, especially, in the run game,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said. “He had about three tackles and four assists, he had a sack to go with it, [and] got his hands on the ball here and there. Joe played a very good ballgame yesterday.”

Defensive tackle Logan Hall, the Bucs’ top pick in 2022, only had one tackle on the stat sheet, but he is becoming more disruptive and also registered a pressure against the Lions. Hall didn’t get pushed around much in the run game as he had earlier in the year. I’m hopeful there’s a chance we see Hall make some real strides by season’s end.

But the real youngster that showed a ton of potential was first-round pick Calijah Kancey, who played in his first full game since only seeing 11 snaps at Minnesota in Week 1 due to a lingering calf injury from training camp. Kancey recorded his first NFL sack and had four hurries to go along with six tackles.

“He’s disruptive,” Bowles said. “He fills out the stat sheet. [There are] some things he has to work on, some rust he has to work off, but we like where he’s at. He’s very disruptive.”

After the game, Kancey admitted that he has to make up for lost time after missing most of training camp, all of the preseason and the first month of the regular season due to his calf injury.

“It was great – still knocking off the rust,” Kancey said. “It’s kind of preseason for me, rather than the other guys that [have] been out there going and flying around.”

The big sin for the Bucs defense on Sunday was not creating any takeaways for the first time all year. Not winning the turnover battle appears to be the death knell for this Tampa Bay team that doesn’t have a lot of margin for error. So getting back to forcing fumbles and picking off passes against the Falcons on Sunday is a must.

As is another game where Tryon-Shoyinka, Hall and Kancey take a big step together towards their development.

STATEMENT 2: Baker Mayfield Had A Bad Game

The Bucs’ game plan was to lean on their passing game a little more against the Lions due to Detroit’s stout run defense. Tampa Bay is actually a better team in pass protection than it is running the ball. The only problem is that is Baker Mayfield played like he said he played after the game.

“I sucked today, we sucked today, it was awful – from the get go,” Mayfield said. “I mean, just – can’t play like that. We didn’t start fast, we didn’t pick it up in the middle, and we didn’t finish strong, so plain and simple we have to be better. The Lions are a good ball club. If we play like that, we’re going to lose every time. I think the defense and special teams did an amazing job yet again, and offense we just need to pick our [play] up –there’s really no other way around it.”

Mayfield had a tipped pass at the line of scrimmage that was intercepted in the first quarter to set up Detroit’s first field goal. Mike Evans was wide open downfield and he’s still running if he catches the ball. That was an 82-yard score that never materialized.

Mayfield would also overthrow an open Trey Palmer twice downfield for potential touchdowns, and he underthrew two passes to Deven Thompkins that could have been big gains.

Yet, if Mayfield played like he played against the Saints where he threw a season-high three touchdown passes the Bucs could’ve very well triumphed on Sunday against Detroit.

Say what you want about Dave Canales’ play-calling, but Canales dialed up some open looks several times on Sunday. It’s up to Mayfield to connect with his receivers downfield and he didn’t do it.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: Is Luke Goedeke Really This Good?

Yes, the Bucs seem to have found their right tackle of the future in Luke Goedeke, who returned to his natural position where he played his final two seasons at Central Michigan. Goedeke is stronger this year thanks to an offseason lifting with Tristan Wirfs, and more confident than he was playing left guard as a rookie.

Goedeke has only surrendered one sack this year and that was in Week 1 against Minnesota Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter. But that sack was more on Baker Mayfield backing into Hunter than it was on Goedeke. Since then Goedeke shut down Philadelphia’s Haason Reddick, neutralized New Orleans’ Cameron Jordan and on Sunday he shut down Detroit’s, Aidan Hutchison. The Lions’ game-wrecker only had one pressure and that don’t come from Goedeke.

With more time at the position and some technique refinement it wouldn’t be crazy to think that Goedeke could develop into more than just a solid starter. Dare we say a potential Pro Bowler? Stay tuned.

QUESTION 2: Should The Bucs Replace Ryan Neal In The Starting Lineup?

Yes, why not? Ryan Neal has been a big disappointment so far in Tampa Bay. After recording a career-high 82 Pro Football Focus overall grade last year in Seattle, including an 84.4 coverage grade, the Seahawks curiously moved on from Neal in favor of adding Giants safety Julian Love instead. Did Seattle think Neal’s big year was a fluke? It sure seems that way.

PFF grades are subjective and need to be taken with a grain of salt, but through five games in Tampa Bay Neal is grading out with a 49.8 overall grade and a 48.4 coverage grade. In Sunday’s loss to the Lions, Neal struggled in coverage and finished with a 44 grade and a 43.6 overall grade. Neal was credited by PFF for giving up five catches for 84 yards, including a 45-yard touchdown to Jameson Williams in the third quarter. That score pushed Detroit’s lead to 17-3.

Despite being beaten initially on the route, Neal recovered and nearly broke up the pass. But Neal, who is on a one-year, prove-it deal in Tampa Bay this year, couldn’t make the play and Williams hauled in the crucial score. Is Neal a playmaker or a JAG – just a guy? Unless things turn around quickly he looks like the latter.

Perhaps it’s time that Dee Delaney replaces him in the starting lineup. Delaney, a versatile reserve defensive back, filled in for Neal for nearly the whole game at New Orleans and registered a 73.2 overall PFF grade against the Saints with a 70.3 coverage grade. Delaney also is tied for the team lead with two interceptions whereas Neal has yet to cause his first takeaway in Tampa Bay. Getting another playmaker like Delaney on the field would only seem to help the Bucs defense make more plays.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: The Bucs Will Have A Double-Digit Sacker In 2023

Bucs defensive tackle Vita Vea led the team with a career-high 6.5 sacks last year. Todd Bowles’ defenses typically have a double-digit sacker, but that wasn’t the case in 2022. Vea’s 3.5 sacks still lead the club with 12 games left and there’s a chance he could repeat that feat, perhaps with 10 if he can land 6.5 more sacks down the stretch. But Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is right on his heels with three and seems to be playing better this year.

Yet don’t be surprised if defensive tackle Calijah Kancey comes from back of the pack to claim the Bucs’ sack title by the end of the year. Kancey notched his first career sack on Sunday and played incredibly well. The Falcons offensive line has already allowed Desmond Ridder to be sacked 19 times through the first six games of the season, which is an average of three times per game. Look for Vea, Kancey or JTS – or all three – to add to the total on Sunday with a big game rushing the passer against Atlanta.

PREDICTION 2: The Bucs Will Beat The Falcons To Stop Atop The NFC South

I’m off to a roaring 5-0 start on my Bucs predictions this year, accurately forecasting Tampa Bay’s 3-2 start. I think the Bucs are the better team and will beat the 3-3 Atlanta Falcons at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday to increase their lead in the NFC South with a 2-0 start.

The Bucs recorded seven total sacks against the Falcons last year, including five of Marcus Mariota in Tampa Bay last year. Look for an improved Bucs run defense to put the clamps on a dangerous Falcons running game that features rookie Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. That will allow Tampa Bay’s pass rushers to tee off on Desmond Ridder and make the second-year quarterback try to beat the Bucs with his arm.