2-Point Conversion: Brady, Bucs Offense Comes Alive

It’s time for Scott Reynolds’ post-game 2-Point Conversion column, which offers two big statements, asks two probing questions and makes two bold predictions. The Bucs rallied from a 14-0 deficit to beat the Panthers, 30-24, and win the NFC South division title for a second straight season. Tampa Bay improved to 8-8 on the season thanks to monster games from quarterback Tom Brady and wide receiver Mike Evans, who teamed up for three deep touchdowns.

2 BIG STATEMENTS

STATEMENT 1: Brady, Bucs Offense Comes Alive To Win NFC South Title

Tom Brady picked a heck of a week to play his best game of the year. Coming off three consecutive games with two interceptions apiece, there were some who were beginning to doubt if the 45-year old quarterback could still play at a high level, especially with the faltering offense being the main culprit in the team’s 7-8 record.

But Brady delivered a masterpiece in a 30-24 win over the Panthers that delivered the Bucs their second-straight division title. He completed 34-of-45 passes (75.6%) for 432 yards with three touchdowns and no turnovers. Brady also ran for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter to help seal the victory. Perhaps more importantly, Brady’s deep ball was back as he connected with Mike Evans on touchdowns spanning 63, 57 and 30 yards.

Brady’s 432 passing yards were tied for the most he’s thrown for since joining the Bucs in 2020, and the first time he’s thrown for three touchdowns in a game this season.

“Everything clicked this week. It wasn’t just those two, [it was] as a team – all the way around,” Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said. “Everything looked like it clicked in practice this week – we had three good days of practice. Again, [Brady] had more time to throw the ball downfield. People weren’t at his feet, [Brady] got it down there and Mike does what he always does when he gets single coverage.”

While the Bucs officially qualified for the playoffs as NFC South champions, Sundays’ game against the Panthers was essentially a playoff game. And it proved once again that it’s wise to bet on Brady when everything is on the line.

Evans finished the day with 10 catches for 207 yards and three touchdowns – all season highs. And Brady also connected with Chris Godwin nine times for a season-high 120 yards, including a 24-yarder.

“It felt good to make a lot of the plays that we know we can make,” Godwin said. “I still don’t think we’ve met our expectations yet, so I think it’s scary whenever we actually do. Again, this is a great step in the right direction. It’s something that we’ve been missing, and we really have to lean on this and build on this to make a nice playoff run.

“It’s hard to win in this league and it’s even harder to win your division, especially back-to-back times. It’s a blessing, but we still have work to do.”

Don’t bet against Brady, especially in the playoffs.

STATEMENT 2: It Was Only Fitting The Bucs Scored 30 Points For Arians

Tampa Bay inducted former head coach Bruce Arians into the Bucs Ring of Honor on Sunday, and it was only fitting that the team scored 30 points in its 30-24 win over Carolina. That victory clinched the NFC South division for a second straight year. And for the second time this year, the Bucs managed to score 30 points, which is significant.

The Bucs were 28-2 when scoring 30 points or more under Arians from 2019-21, including an impressive 23-0 mark from 2020-21 once Tom Brady arrived to play quarterback. Tampa Bay’s offense averaged 30 points per game from 2020-21 with Brady under center and Arians on the sidelines. But this year the Bucs are averaging just 18.5 points per game due to a lot of factors, perhaps one of which is Arians’ departure.

Trailing 14-10 at halftime, Arians implored the Bucs to victory and for their fans to cheer them on during his halftime induction speech. Tampa Bay missed a two-point conversion, missed a 53-yard field goal attempt, missed an extra point and had a field goal blocked, otherwise the Bucs could have scored more than 30 points against the Panthers.

Ironically, the only other game the Bucs have scored 30 points in this season was a Week 4 loss to Kansas City, 41-31. It’s rare that Tampa Bay loses when it scores 30 points or more over the past four seasons. Even more ironic is the fact that Arians was supposed to be inducted into the Bucs Ring of Honor for that game, but Hurricane Ian prompted the team to move the induction ceremony to Week 17 against Carolina.

2 PROBING QUESTIONS

QUESTION 1: Why Did Brady And Evans Finally Connect On The Deep Ball?

Tom Brady decided to take some hits and hang in the pocket more on Sunday. That was the difference in he and Mike Evans connecting on deep balls against Carolina. The offensive line did a fair job in protection on those three deep touchdowns, which covered 63, 57 and 30 yards, and Brady let it rip.

His throws were accurate, and Evans took advantage of single coverage and outraced Carolina’s defenders to the ball. Evans now has 10 career touchdowns against the Panthers, which ties the Falcons for the most TDs he’s had against a single team.

“Those two teams play me with a lot of one high,” Evans said. “The Saints play me with a lot of two high. But the Panthers and the Falcons, since I’ve been in the league, have played me with more man coverage.”

But the key ingredient for the Bucs’ success with the deep ball was Brady’s willingness to hang in the pocket and let the deeper routes develop on Sunday. Brady has gotten rid of the ball faster than ever this season because he hasn’t trusted his protection up front. At times earlier this season Brady has gotten rid of the ball too soon and that’s forced some underthrows and some overthrows to Evans and others. And Evans has also dropped a few on-target deep balls this season.

Yet despite taking some sacks and some hits, Brady bought enough time for Evans to get deep and that patience in the pocket paid off big for Tampa Bay on Sunday.

QUESTION 2: Do The Bucs Want To Face The Cowboys Or The Eagles In The Playoffs?

This one is easy. Bring on the Cowboys.

Yes, the Eagles have had two weeks to clinch the NFC East division, but two losses with Gardner Minshew at the helm instead of the injured Jalen Hurts has put that quest in jeopardy. Philadelphia has lost two straight, including a game at Dallas, and that’s kept the Cowboys’ division title hopes alive in Week 18.

The Bucs have beaten the Cowboys twice to start the 2021 season and the 2022 season, and beat the Eagles at Raymond James Stadium in the first round of the playoffs last year. But it’s not just a recent 2-0 mark against the Cowboys that makes them the favored opponent. It’s the fact that the Eagles defense can get after the quarterback like no other team this year. Philadelphia already has 68 sacks to lead the NFL this season. That’s 16 more than the next closest team, New England (52), and 17 more than Dallas (51).

Bucs quarterback Tom Brady was sacked three times and hit eight more times against Carolina. Tampa Bay’s offensive line is banged up with left tackle Donovan Smith dealing with a foot injury that caused him to miss the Arizona game. While right tackle Tristan Wirfs is battling through an ankle sprain that forced him to miss three weeks.

Philadelphia has four double-digit sackers led by linebacker Haasan Reddick (16), defensive end Brandon Graham (11), defensive end Josh Sweat (11) and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (11). Fletcher Cox, another starting defensive tackle, also has seven sacks, which is more than any Bucs players has this season. With pass protection being a concern in Tampa Bay all season, the Bucs would rather face the Cowboys and have to worry about just one double-digit sacker, Micah Parsons (13), in the game plan.

2 BOLD PREDICTIONS

PREDICTION 1: Nelson Is Going To Earn A Big Pay Day In Free Agency

Outside linebacker Anthony Nelson is having another strong finish this season. Nelson, who has back-to-back strip-sacks in consecutive weeks, is now tied with Devin White for second on the team with 5.5 sacks behind Vita Vea’s 6.5. His three forced fumbles lead the Bucs, and Sunday’s strip-sack late in the fourth quarter led to a Tampa Bay touchdown that put the win over Carolina out of reach.

Nelson, who is in a contract year, now has 3.5 sacks and all three of his forced fumbles in the past six games. He’s had to play every snap during the last three weeks with Carl Nassib out, Shaquil Barrett on injured reserve for most of the year and backup Genard Avery recently being placed on IR. Nelson had five sacks last with three of them coming in the last three games of the year while getting more time with Jason Pierre-Paul being injured. At 6-foot-7, 270 pounds with his production as a rotational player, Nelson will cash in next March in free agency – either in Tampa Bay or elsewhere.

PREDICTION 2: Bowles Returns As Head Coach

This is an easy prediction to make, so I’ll take it. To all of the anti-Todd Bowles crowd, I hate to break it to you, but he’ll be back as Tampa Bay’s head coach in 2022. Bowles was likely going to return anyway, even if the Bucs didn’t win the division. The Glazers have always given their coaching hires two years to prove they can win and handle the job. Remember, even Lovie Smith got a second season in 2014 after going 2-14 following Greg Schiano’s 4-12 season in 2013. The Bucs didn’t even win a home game under Smith and yet he returned for the 2015 campaign.

Bowles will be back as the head coach in 2023 and won’t be on the hot seat due to winning the division in his first year and earning the automatic home playoff game that comes with it. The organization has identified the offense being the problem and that will be corrected moving forward next year – likely with a new offensive coordinator replacing Byron Leftwich and perhaps some assistants. Bowles inherited Bruce Arians’ coaching staff when he took over as head coach late in the offseason on March 30. He’ll get a chance to put his stamp on the coaching staff this offseason, and hopefully more points will follow in 2023.