Zurich Classic of New Orleans Odds, Picks, and PGA Tour Preview: Any Value Beyond Super Teams?

We preview the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and look for potential value picks other than the favored super team of Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland.

TPC Louisiana in Avondale, LA hosts the Zurich Classic of New Orleans this week. The PGA Tour’s only team event holds a prime spot on the schedule, and that has helped draw out some of the top golfers on the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).

While world No. 1 and newly jacketed Masters champion Scottie Scheffler has paired up with Tour veteran and fellow Texan Ryan Palmer, all eyes will be on the marquee team of American Collin Morikawa and Norwegian Viktor Hovland.

Lots of stars at TPC Louisiana this week for Zurich Classic, but none bigger than this guy:#Tripod pic.twitter.com/YeKkJrQ5Nb

— Brentley Romine (@BrentleyGC) April 18, 2022

This team event is the fourth-to-last tune-up for the PGA Championship. The second major of the year will be played May 19-22 at Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, OK.

Here are my top outright picks for the 2022 Zurich Classic of New Orleans at TPC Louisiana.

Zurich Classic of New Orleans Odds

Zurich Classic of New Orleans Odds Analysis

Hovland and Morikawa are the consensus favorites while entering this week fifth and second, respectively, in the OWGR. They're two of the biggest young stars in golf, and the pair will surely draw plenty of betting action despite the risk associated with the low odds. Their implied win probability ranges from 11.11% at BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook to 13.33% at DraftKings Sportsbook.

There isn’t much differentiation in the market this week. BetMGM is looking most favorably upon reigning Zurich Classic of New Orleans champions Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith. Though they won last April and Smith has notched two solo wins since, Leishman has largely been struggling in 2022.

DraftKings has posted the lowest number of the week on the Palmer-Scheffler team. Palmer won this event with Jon Rahm in 2019, and he's now paired up with the new world No. 1.

Zurich Classic of New Orleans Format

The best ball format will be used for rounds one and three of the team event. Each player plays his own shots on each hole, and the lowest score on the hole is the team’s score. The second and fourth rounds will be played under alternate shot.

If there’s a playoff—as there was in 2020 with Australians Leishman and Smith defeating the South African duo of Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel—the format will alternate for each needed extra hole. The playoff will begin under alternate shot and then switch to best ball for the second hole, and so on.

The 80-team field will be cut to the top 33 (and ties) after the first two rounds.

A win in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans counts as an official PGA Tour victory for both team members. However, no world ranking points are awarded.

Both members of the winning team will gain entry to the PGA Championship, The Players Championship, Sentry Tournament of Champions, and all invitational events. They won’t be granted automatic entry to the Masters, U.S. Open, or The Open. Each winner will also receive 400 FedEx Cup points.

TPC Louisiana Course Profile

TPC Louisiana is Pete Dye-designed course that's a par 72 and plays to 7,425 yards. Sand bunkers and water hazards are plentiful, yet low scores are extremely achievable. Smith and Jonas Blixt won this event in a playoff at -27 in 2017. Meanwhile, Smith and Leishman’s winning score of -20 was the highest over the four runnings of the Zurich Classic as a team event.

Four of the 10 par 4s are shorter than 400 yards, with four others ranging from 450 to 500 yards. All four par 3s exceed 200 yards, with a long of 221. The four par 5s are attackable while ranging from 548 to 585 yards.

Our key stats for this week are:

• Strokes gained: Off-the-tee
• SG: Approach
• Par 4 efficiency: 350-400 yards
• Par 3 efficiency: 200-225 yards
• Birdie or better percentage

Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

• Hovland and Morikawa (+800 via Caesars)
• Joaquin Niemann and Mito Pereira (+2500 via DraftKings)
• Davis Riley and Will Zalatoris (+3600 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here.

Who Will Win the Zurich Classic?

Hovland and Morikawa (+800)

Hovland and Morikawa have combined for seven PGA Tour wins since the start of 2020. The 24 and 25 year olds will now tee it up at TPC Louisiana for the first time. They enter the week averaging 1.19 and 1.42 SG: off-the-tee, respectively, and more than 0.80 SG: approach per round for the season.

While it's almost always unwise to bet a +800 favorite in a standard golf event, the team format lends itself to backing heavier favorites than usual. We're also getting decent value with the odds at BetMGM and Caesars early in the week. Anticipate the +800 to drop closer to the +650 opening number at DraftKings, which already seems to have the expected public betting action worked into the price.

Niemann and Pereira (+2500)

Niemann and Pereira, both from Chile, are also playing TPC Louisiana professionally for the first time. It'll serve as an opportunity for Niemann, a two-time PGA Tour winner, to help Pereira earn his first Tour victory and some future exemptions.

Niemann has missed just one cut through five events since winning The Genesis Invitational in February. He was in early contention at the Masters before stumbling to a T-35 finish, but Niemann rebounded with a T-12 showing during last week's RBC Heritage.

Meanwhile, Pereira has logged four professional wins and has made the cut in six of nine PGA Tour events this year, with a top finish of T-13 at the Valero Texas Open.

Both are excellent iron players, and plays well anywhere.

Riley and Zalatoris (+3600)

We're looking to fade experience entirely this week and back another young pair of up-and-comers, with both Davis Riley and Will Zalatoris still in search of their first PGA Tour win.

Riley came close to victory as a runner-up during the Valspar Championship. His missed cut at the RBC Heritage last week was Riley's third through nine events to start the calendar year. However, he was a two-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020, and Riley has registered one other top-10 finish on the PGA Tour.

Zalatoris has taken a step back from his PGA Tour Rookie of the Year campaign in 2021. But he followed up a quarterfinal loss at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play with a T-6 at the Masters. He also lost in a playoff to Luke List during the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this campaign.

The price at FanDuel is higher than what other books are offering. Pounce on that number, as Riley and Zalatoris are +2800 to win at Caesars

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Picks made on 4/18/2022 at 6 p.m. ET.

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