Why Breece Hall Will Help You Win Your Fantasy League in 2022

The New York Jets traded up in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft to select Breece Hall with the fourth pick in the second round (36th overall). He already had a great prospect profile and now has the draft capital we like to see. Hall is currently drafted as the RB19 in the late third round of drafts. I think Hall will lead some teams to a winning season in 2022 and help bring home some Foot Clan titles. Let’s dive into why.

Prospect Profile

Breece Hall was a great prospect, and we will dive a little into that here. Check out Marvin Elequin’s Breece Hall profile in our 2022 NFL Draft Rookie Profile Series for a full breakdown.

Since 2014, NFL Next Gen Stats has given a 99 grade to six running backs, including Breece Hall. Next Gen Stats has given out 12 Elite grades, which is 90 or above. It’s safe to say that Breece Hall is in some elite company after receiving this grade.

Only four of the six running backs to receive the 99 grade have played an entire season. Hall is going into his first year, and there is also Travis Etienne, who was injured during his rookie season and also has league-winning upside in 2022 for similar reasons. Two of the four had a top-5 finish in their rookie season. Najee Harris finished as the RB4 last season, and Saquon Barkley finished as the RB2 in 2018. Nick Chubb finished as the RB16 in 2018 but did not get more than three carries until Week 7. Melvin Gordon struggled the most as a rookie, finishing as the RB50, scoring zero touchdowns on the season in 2015.

Now, if we look at the rest of the list, there were six running backs to receive an Elite grade between 91-97. Those running backs also had a lot of success, with 5-of-6 reaching a top-12 season in their rookie year. Dalvin Cook was the only one who didn’t reach that milestone because of a torn ACL in Week 4. If he weren’t injured, he would likely have also been in the top 12.

In total, 7-of-9 running backs to receive an Elite grade by NFL Next Gen Stats had a top-12 season in their rookie year. The other two running backs, Nick Chubb and Melvin Gordon, had a top-12 season the following year.

Here below, we have another bucket of names that Breece Hall falls into that were nearly all elite running backs. Scott Barrett points out that Breece Hall is among seven Power-5 running backs to have 145 yards from scrimmage per game across multiple seasons.

Since 2000, there have only been 7 Power-5 RBs to eclipse 145.0 YFS per game across multiple seasons:

+ Jonathan Taylor*
+ Breece Hall
+ Adrian Peterson
+ Christian McCaffrey
+ Dalvin Cook
+ Ka’Deem Carey
+ LaMichael James

* the only RB to do this more than twice

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) April 4, 2022

Strong Pass Catching Ability

We all love a running back who can be productive in the passing game on top of rushing volume, and Hall fits that role well. Hall flashed good hands and should have no problem producing in the passing game at the next level. The main concern that fantasy managers will have is Zach Wilson‘s tendency to push the ball down the field. Michael Carter averaged 6.4 targets in Wilson’s absence during Weeks 7-11 but only averaged 2.6 targets in games he played with Wilson at quarterback.

I typically expect good players to receive targets, and I believe Hall will be targeted enough to make fantasy managers happy. If anything, it should be good for Wilson to have a weapon he can rely on who can do more after the catch. Per the tweet below, Hall forced 14 missed tackles on receptions in 2021, leading the Big 12. I expect Hall to average close to four targets per game, which would have been 14th among running backs in 2021. I could also see him averaging more targets than that, though.

Breece Hall had 14 forced missed tackles on receptions in 2021…

Most among Big 12 RBs pic.twitter.com/O8Rheoke5J

— PFF College (@PFF_College) April 10, 2022

Explosive Rusher

With the ball in his hands, Breece Hall is explosive and shows excellent vision. Hall was right where we like to see a running back in explosive rush rate. Per data from Campus2Canton.com, Hall is right in line in year three of college with the likes of Saquon Barkley and slightly above Leonard Fournette and Jonathan Taylor.

Breece has been a dominant force in college football since 2019. Looking at the PFF College tweet below, you see that he is a dynamic and explosive rusher, leading in major statistical categories. He was a workhorse at Iowa St and excelled in the role.

Breece Hall since 2019:

3,920 rushing yards (most in P5)
2,310 yards after contact (most)
50 rushing TDs (most)
194 forced missed tackles (most)pic.twitter.com/tYQgsAKqAv

— PFF College (@PFF_College) March 31, 2022

As of writing this article, Week 1 of the preseason is wrapping up. We have a nice clip of Breece in action against the Eagles, where he displayed patience, vision, and explosiveness. He is a shifty runner who can bounce it to the outside, making a man miss, and then use his burst to pick up the first down and then some. This play is just a flash of what he can do, and I expect us to see similar plays throughout the NFL season.

Not Worried About Michael Carter or Playing for the Jets

Another concern fantasy managers have is Michael Carter stealing work from Breece. I’m not overly concerned about Carter taking enough volume to hinder Breece from being a top fantasy running back. First, Breece is the superior talent, both on the ground and through the air. The Jets seem to agree since they traded up in the second round of the NFL Draft to get him. Carter is not someone they heavily invested in either. He will be involved, but I think talent wins, and Breece will get the bulk of the volume. Carter may see some third-down work, but that does not mean Breece won’t see many targets. It’s so common nowadays that running backs split time, but when they are talented like Hall is, they can still produce significant fantasy numbers.

If you are worried about Hall playing for the Jets, D’Andre Swift taught us that we should not care too much about the team but rather focus on the player and their talent. I do not deny that situations can be important for fantasy, but it’s been proven that talented players can succeed in bad situations. Many fantasy managers were out on Swift last season because he played for the Lions. Saquon and Chubb have made impact on bad teams. Don’t let history repeat itself. Breece is a great talent, and we shouldn’t be too concerned that he plays for the Jets.

Playoff Schedule is Looking Good

We don’t want to look too far ahead, as a lot can change; however, per the Ultimate Draft Kit, Breece Hall currently has the easiest schedule on paper during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17). Hall will go against Detroit, Jacksonville, and Seattle. While you shouldn’t draft players just for their playoff schedule, Hall is uber talented, and the potential easy fantasy playoff schedule is just a bonus that may lead fantasy managers to some Foot Clan titles!

Conclusion

When you are in the third round of fantasy drafts, consider taking Breece Hall, as he has the potential to finish well above where you are drafting him if his current ADP stays the same. When you think about his potential and skill set, he is the type of player who can help you win your league, and that is the type of player I want on my team.