Who Will Win the 2022 US Open? Golf Experts Debate Their Top Picks

As part of our preparations for the 2022 US Open at The Country Club in Brookline, MA, our golf betting experts debate their favorite picks to win based on the odds at our top-rated sportsbooks.

Sportsbook Review has previewed the 2022 U.S. Open along with offering up our fantasy golf power rankings and longshot picks. Below, golf betting experts Esten McLaren and Jon Metler will look past Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, and Scottie Scheffler to campaign for their top picks to win the U.S. Open.

US Open Odds

Who Will Win the US Open?

McLaren: Schauffele finally shines through

Golf handicappers love to preach weekly about how Xander Schauffele isn’t worthy of his pre-tournament odds to win. I’ve long been among that group. After all, the 28-year-old hasn’t won a solo PGA Tour event since 2019 and hasn’t won a full-field event since 2017.

So why back the five-time PGA Tour winner to get that long-anticipated victory in a major? Well, Schauffele has defeated elite fields at the 2017 Tour Championship, 2018 WGC-HSBC Champions, and 2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions. Most importantly, he hasn’t finished worse than T-7 in five career appearances at the U.S. Open.

Schauffele is also one of only a handful of golfers in the field for the 2022 U.S. Open with competitive experience at The Country Club in Brookline, MA. He competed in the 2013 U.S. Amateur (won by Matt Fitzpatrick) and made it to the third round. We’re getting Schauffele at odds as high as +2200 to win this week. Ranking sixth or seventh by the odds at most books, it’s a number to back based on his past excellence in the U.S. Open.

Metler: Value too high on Morikawa

We are not betting on who has come close to winning a major championship in the past few seasons, but rather on who actually possesses the ability to win the U.S. Open and that is why I prefer to back Collin Morikawa at +3200 on FanDuel.

There is no reason for me to back someone like Schauffele in the hopes that he will win a major championship when I could pick up an extra 10 dollars of value and back someone who has proven they can win on Sundays in a major championship.

Watch the putt that wins Morikawa #TheOpen and names him the Champion Golfer of the Year!

Watch live reaction on Sky Sports The Openpic.twitter.com/W2rNA2Dlmo

— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) July 18, 2021

Morikawa has won a major championship in each of the past two seasons, which is something that you cannot say about many golfers trading at a price higher than +3000. You can actually say that about no golfer trading at a price higher than +3000, other than Morikawa.

Schauffele finished T-7 at last year's U.S. Open, so how can we ignore Morikawa, who finished T-4, and is a proven winner in contrast with Schauffele?

McLaren: Morikawa missing a key piece

I thought we weren’t supposed to be worrying about what happened last year? If we are, we should point out that Morikawa’s T-4 finish at Torrey Pines followed a missed cut in the 2020 U.S. Open and a T-35 placing in 2019. Not all majors are alike, and the conditions for the U.S. Open are routinely the most difficult of golf’s four biggest championships.

Since we’re sticking to the present, Schauffele is entering the 2022 U.S. Open in a much better form, especially for major championship golf. Though he has slipped outside of the top 10 of the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), the 2020 Olympic gold medalist has 12 top-20 finishes and just two missed cuts in 19 events since the summer games.

Morikawa may have snuck his way back to a fifth-place finish at the Masters, but he missed the cut against an elite field at The Players Championship, tied for just 55th at the PGA Championship, and missed the cut against another major-caliber field at the Memorial Tournament in his latest event. Though still an elite iron player, Morikawa has been lost on and around the putting surfaces. That’s a one-way ticket to a missed cut at The Country Club.

Metler: Trust in Morikawa's Sunday expertise

The current form of Morikawa is worrying, but this is what allows us to get an enhanced price point of +3200 to win this week. We have seen time after time that Morikawa has the ability to defeat any field on any golf course when his game is on. That is a trait I am seeking before investing my money.

It is not my goal to find someone who makes the cut or finishes inside of the top 20, but rather I am trying to add an outright winner to my portfolio for the U.S. Open, and Schauffele has not yet demonstrated that capability.

In this case, a potential missed cut does not scare me away from Morikawa because I understand what I could be buying in the event that his putter gets hot and he brings the same level of play to The Country Club that we have seen in the past.

Sundays at a major championship aren't for everyone, but Morikawa has proven that he can handle the bright lights. In his previous two victories at The Open Championship and the PGA Championship, Morikawa shot a 66 and a 64, respectively, on the final day.

You would rather give up $10 to have Schauffele's current form than Morikawa's proven track record of winning major championships?

McLaren: Schauffele best fit for the course

I’m not giving up anything, only taking the best price on the golfer I think is going to win the U.S. Open and his first major.

Morikawa leads the PGA Tour this season with a final-round scoring average of 67.44 but Schauffele ranks right behind in third at 67.90. At the Memorial Tournament, Schauffele fired a pedestrian final round of -2, but he led the field that day with a jaw-dropping 5.57 strokes gained: approach. Again, Morikawa missed the cut with a horrendous 1.99 strokes lost per round around the green. He’ll need more than for his putter to get hot in Brookline.

Schauffele’s form for The Country Club doesn’t end there. He’s ninth on Tour this season in bogey avoidance, 12th in SG: approach, 30th in SG: around-the-green, tied for seventh in par-4 efficiency: 450-500 yards, and tied for fourth in 3-putt avoidance. He ranks well ahead of Morikawa in each of those key stats for this week other than SG: approach. Morikawa is just 182nd of 204 qualified golfers in SG: around-the-green.

One of the biggest reasons why The Country Club still packs a punch to this day are its small greens.@JordanSpieth explains to @ScottWalkeronTV why precision, always critical in a #USOpen, is even more important this week.

Course Insights are in collaboration with @DeloitteUS. pic.twitter.com/QH5Mg2hozA

— U.S. Open (USGA) (@usopengolf) June 13, 2022

Coupling this excellent all-around play, which is essential for the U.S. Open, with Schauffele’s modicum of experience at The Country Club, has me anticipating the breakthrough the golf world and oddsmakers have long expected. He was priced at around +1600 prior to the start of Round 1 last year, so the heightened odds present plenty of value.

Metler: All about upside

Schauffele may be slightly better than Morikawa in all of these statistics you outlined, but you are paying for it with the lower odds. The form he has over Morikawa is the reason why you are receiving only +2200 on Schauffele while I am receiving +3200 on Morikawa. 

In my opinion, these statistics do not justify avoiding Morikawa this week at the U.S. Open, especially at a price of +3200. As golf is a game of highs and lows, I believe Morikawa is being priced off of his low, which provides us as bettors with a great opportunity to capitalize on the boosted odds. 

While Morikawa may be struggling around the greens, his average of 0.82 SG: approach and 0.63 SG: off-the-tee will serve him well at The Country Club, especially since his SG: off-the-tee is based primarily on accuracy rather than power. For an additional +1000 odds, I would rather take the proven winner in Morikawa and hope he is able to be average on the greens than take Schauffele at +2200 with the better statistics.

Where to Bet on the 2022 U.S. Open

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

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