What To Expect From The Bucs TE Room Now

Now that Rob Gronkowski has retired the Bucs tight end room just got a lot thinner. Gronkowski’s departure isn’t the only one from the Bucs 2021 tight end group. 2017 first round draft pick OJ Howard also moved on in free agency, signing a one-year deal with the Buffalo Bills. That leaves nine-year veteran Cam Brate and Cody McElroy as the lone holdovers from last year.

General manager Jason Licht has also tried to restock the cupboard through the draft this year selecting Cade Otton out of Washington with the first selection of the fourth round and Ko Kieft out of Minnesota in the sixth.

But what can we expect out of this group in 2022? How much of Gronkowski’s production can be replicated in the aggregate by this group? Let’s take a look at some of the numbers.

Less Movement Around The Formation

Last year Gronk was used all over the offensive formation per Pro Football Focus. While he lined up in-line as a traditional tight end on 55.9 percent of his snaps he was used as a slot receiver 123 times (28.7%) and even lined up out wide 59 times (13.8%). This is due to Gronkowski’s ability as a non-traditional weapon. Despite limited speed he was still a downfield threat who posed mis-match problems for almost any defender on the field.

Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs current crop of tight ends just don’t have the same physical skillsets to create similar mismatch issues for defenses. And while Cam Brate was used in the slot over 40% of the time last year, much of that was due to Gronkowski’s presence. With Otton missing much of the offseason due to ankle surgery, Brate is going to have to move into a more in-line role limiting the Bucs use of tight ends in the slot in 2022.

Less Targets

Gronkowski’s ability as a high-end receiving threat meant he was used as a primary target quite a bit. In 2021, Gronkowski was targeted 86 times on 384 routes run. That works out to a target on 22.4% of his routes. For comparison, Cameron Brate was targeted just 50 times on 319 routes (15.7%). Between Gronkowski, Brate, and Howard the Bucs tight ends ran 850 routes last year and received 156 targets.

That works out to an 18.3% target rate. Look for the routes to reduce to somewhere between 650-700 in 2022 as the Bucs focus less on 12 personnel and more on blocking when in that grouping. As for target rate I would expect it to fall more towards 17%. That works out to 110-120 targets.

Less Verticality

One of the things that makes Gronkowski so unique among tight ends was his ability to be a deep threat. Last year alone his average depth of target of 10.9 ranked second in the league among tight ends with at least 50 targets.  Where did Cam Brate rank? 13th with an aDOT of 7.8. Gronkowski was a unicorn. And you can’t replace unicorns easily.

A Step Back In Blocking

Last year Gronkowski registered a PFF pass blocking grade in nine of his 12 games played. In those nine contests only once was his grade below a 65 (mid-sixties is considered to be slightly above average in PFF’s grading scale). As a matter of fact, he had five games where his pass blocking grade was above a 70.  And across his career Gronk’s pass block grade has been above a 65 in eight of his 11 years playing.  Meanwhile, Brate posted a pass-blocking grade of 46.7 in 2021. And he has a grade over 65 in only two of his eight seasons.

Bucs TEs Rob Gronkowski and Cam Brate – Photo: Cliff Welch/PR

Meanwhile, Otton is known as a decent blocker in college. I even noted it as part of Pewter Report’s “Grinding the Tape” profile on him. And while I expect Otton to be a solid blocker at the NFL level, there is no way anyone can or should expect him to be at the level of Gronkowski in year one. Same goes for Kieft who was drafted singularly for his blocking prowess.

Losing a Hall-of-Famer while they are still operating at a high level will hurt any franchise. This is no different fort the Bucs tight end room now that Gronkowski is calling it quits. 2021 saw the Bucs tight end room produce 157 targets that generated 100 catches for 1,182 yards and 11 touchdowns. Expect 2022 to be a step back to a much more modest line. My projections for the room are 120 targets for 80 catches that produce about 725 yards and 6-8 touchdowns.

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