Warriors vs. Nuggets Game 3 NBA Picks: Denver Set to Strike Back

Down 2-0, the Denver Nuggets need to win Game 3 at home to have a chance in their series against the Golden State Warriors. Check out our Warriors-Nuggets picks.

Frustration is beginning to mount for the Nuggets, who are down 2-0 to the Warriors 2-0 with the series heading to Denver. Nikola Jokic was ejected from Game 2 after blowing his lid to officials, which is a testament to the stellar defense Golden State is playing.

Denver has managed a measly 113.3 offensive rating over the two games and will be in search of something more here. With a loss, the series is as good as over. Jokic will need to play his best game of the season, and the Nuggets will also have to slow down Golden State’s scoring.

Here are my picks and predictions for Thursday’s NBA matchup between the Warriors and Nuggets (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

SEE ALSO: Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves: Back Minnesota at Home in Game 3

Warriors vs. Nuggets Game Info

Date: Thursday, April 21, 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Location: Pepsi Center, Denver, CO

Warriors vs. Nuggets Odds Analysis

The Warriors opened up as slight -137 favorites, but the money has since steadily poured in on the Nuggets. Denver, initially a +115 underdog, now sits as low as +105 at BetMGM. FanDuel seems to have a large Warriors liability, however, offering Golden State at -142 and Denver at +120.

The total has dropped anywhere from one to two points from the opening line of 224.5.

Warriors vs. Nuggets Picks

• Nuggets +2.5 (-110) ★★★★★
• Under 223.5 (-110) ★★★★
• Nikola Jokic triple-double (+260) ★★★★

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Warriors vs. Nuggets Predictions

Nuggets +2.5 (-110)

I hate to use desperation as a tool for handicapping, but we can be sure Denver will put its best foot forward in an effort to remain in the series.

Though it’s been a struggle for the Nuggets, a 113.3 offensive rating isn't especially poor in a playoff series that hasn’t ever felt all that close. On top of that, Jokic hasn’t yet found his A-game and has been to the free-throw line only 10 times (that was, of course, the reason he was tossed in Game 2). He averaged a career-high 6.3 free-throw attempts per game this year. He took eight free throws on Monday and will need to get to the stripe at the same rate to give Denver a boost.

Meanwhile, the Warriors are shooting 53.6% from the field and 44% on threes. But they now have to travel to Denver, where they shot 33% from deep the last time they played.

Denver’s defense is too strong to let another explosive offensive performance happen again, and with shooting variance kicking in, Denver can get across the finish line here. 

Under 223.5 (-110)

The tempo of this series has been painstakingly slow. The two teams have played to a 94.25 pace rating so far, and though both games have gone Over in this series, it’s no thanks to the number of possessions.

Golden State is shooting at an unsustainable rate and is up against a defense that allowed a cool 111.5 points per 100 possessions during the regular season. Steph Curry is playing just over 20 minutes per game, and there's no reason to push him to play any more with a 2-0 series lead. There are too many reasons that offensive regression should come.

The back-to-back explosions on the offensive end from Golden State have pushed this number up and given us some real value.

Jokic triple-double (+260)

Jokic averaged a triple-double in two home games against Golden State this year, recording one and falling an assist shy of another. He's recorded six in his playoff career and had 19 during the regular season.

Had Denver shot better than 42.6% in Game 2, Jokic likely would have been close to another triple-double. He was passing out of double teams for the entire second half and recorded six assists in just 28 minutes with many others left begging with missed shots.

The rebounds will be there given the size of Draymond Green, and he’ll surely score at least 10 points. As is always the case with a Jokic triple-double, it will come down to how many assists he can rack up, and given the defensive attention he draws, the chances for helpers will come in bunches.

Where to Bet on Warriors-Nuggets Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Warriors-Nuggets picks made 4/20/2022 at 11:33 a.m. ET.

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