Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 1 NBA Picks: Can Memphis Keep Pace With Experienced Golden State Squad?

The Golden State Warriors head to Memphis for the first game of their second-round series against the Grizzlies. They’ll need to exploit the Grizzlies’ lack of playoff experience to earn a road win. Check out our Warriors-Grizzlies picks.

The Memphis Grizzlies will play their first semifinal game since the grit-and-grind era on Sunday afternoon. With Steven Adams still in the health and safety protocols, they’ll do so behind a starting lineup featuring no one older than 26. The average age of their most recent starting five is just 23.2 years old.  

What the young squad possesses in hustle, it lacks in experience. That will be a problem against the Warriors, whose most recent starting lineup features three players who have been competing for NBA championships since most of the Grizzlies were in high school. Memphis’ inexperience was on full display in its opening-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves – between highlight dunks and hustle plays came frequent unforced errors and bad shots.

Here are my picks and predictions for Sunday’s NBA matchup between the Warriors and the Grizzlies (odds via BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game Info

Date: Sunday, May 1, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Location: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Odds Analysis

The Warriors opened as 2-point road favorites, and that’s where you’ll find them at most books. Despite having attracted 84% of the tickets and 84% of the handle, the books aren’t budging on this one. It makes playing Golden State feel like a bit of a trap, but I’m undeterred.

The total opened at 218 but has moved up to 219.5 and is as high as 220.5, depending on your book. Analysts expect a fast-paced, high-scoring series with plenty of small lineups, so that movement should not come as a shock. The Over has attracted 78% of the tickets and 92% of the handle. 

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Picks

• Warriors -1.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ★★★★★
• Over 219.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ★★★★
• Steph Curry Over 27.5 points (-110 via DraftKings) ★★★

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Warriors vs. Grizzlies Predictions

Warriors -1.5 (-115)

The Grizzlies played inefficient basketball against the Timberwolves in the first round. After a regular season during which they ranked fourth in offensive rating with 114.3 baskets per 100 possessions, the Grizzlies plummeted to 10th for the first round. They scored only 111.7 points per 100 possessions.

In contrast, the Warriors went from 16th in regular-season offensive rating with 112.1 points per 100 possessions to first. Their 121.9 points per 100 possessions in the opening round led the NBA by a 2.4-basket margin. Skeptics could argue that defensive play skewed these numbers, but Memphis’ and Golden State’s first-round opponents ranked 13th and 15th, respectively, in regular-season defensive rating. The Timberwolves gave up only half a point less than the Denver Nuggets.

With Golden State leading all playoff teams in postseason offensive rating and effective field-goal percentage, they’ll be hard to beat. Memphis ranked 11th in effective field-goal percentage with a rate of 51.9% to Golden State’s 60.8%. To cover, Memphis will need to take better shots and win in other four-factor metrics.

Though the Grizzlies lead the Warriors in offensive rebounding and free-throw rate in the playoffs, the Golden State boasts a lower turnover percentage. Further, though Memphis got to the charity stripe more often than any other playoff team, its own sloppy play led the Timberwolves to rank third in free-throw rate. The Grizzlies must limit their fouls this series - Jaren Jackson Jr. can’t play defense from the bench. 

As the first round made clear, the Warriors play smarter basketball. Look for them to earn a series-defining opening win over Memphis on Sunday afternoon.

Over 219.5 (-115)

We’ll start this series with two chalk plays. These teams surpassed this total in all but two of their 11 opening-round games. These squads combined to average 232.7 points per game in the first round, and though that’s a very imprecise metric to use, it suggests that this total has been set a bit too low.

Pace is the primary reason to target the Over. Memphis vs. Minnesota led all first-round series in pace with 102.9 possessions per game. Golden State vs. Denver ranked third with 96.7 possessions per game. Memphis ranked fourth in regular-season pace and declined to take its foot off the gas. Though the Grizzlies could probably minimize their mistakes by slowing things down, I don’t think we’ll see them make that shift in Game 1.

While it’s worth noting that these teams stayed Under this number in three of their four regular-season contests, including one overtime game, the Under went only 2-1-1, and the closing number was routinely higher than the one we’re getting now.

We’ll need a heavy dose of offense from Golden State for this one to go Over, but Memphis won’t be able to sustain its strong playoff defensive rating against any lineup featuring Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. The Warriors have scored 133.3 points per 100 possessions with those three on the floor in the playoffs. Golden State boasts seven of the 10 most efficient three-man combinations on offense, too.

Curry Over 27.5 points (-110)

Curry scored no fewer than 27 points against the Grizzlies in their three regular-season meetings. He racked up 36 against them in October, 46 in December, and 27 in January. And through five playoff games, Curry has stayed Under this number only twice - both in games when he played 31 minutes or less. Curry played 37-plus in his last two opening-round games, and that’s the exact kind of workload he should get on Sunday.

This number feels a point or two too low, but the books are likely keeping it down because of the limited role Curry played in the opening round and Memphis’ solid defensive play. While the first factor gives us an edge - Steve Kerr won’t hold Curry back in a much more competitive second-round matchup - the second is actually a cause for concern. 

After the opening round, Memphis boasts three of the best three-man combinations in net rating. The best of those lineups, which consisted of Jackson, Ja Morant, and Brandon Clarke, has allowed 34.9 fewer baskets per 100 possessions than it scored. The trio ranks 14th best in playoff defensive rating thus far. 

However, I don’t think any of those players have a good answer for either the Warriors’ offensive creativity or Curry’s sharpshooting accuracy. Golden State routinely found ways to scheme Curry open against Clarke in the regular season, and Clarke made some of the same mistakes over and over again. Curry may not have as much of an edge the rest of the series, but the Grizzlies won’t have time to adjust their defensive scheme for Game 1 on Sunday. The Grizzlies will go from lining up against one of the NBA’s most impulsive offenses to one of its most disciplined, and it’ll take them a game or two to catch up.

Where to Bet on Warriors-Grizzlies Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

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Warriors-Grizzlies picks made 4/30/2022 at 1:56 p.m. ET.

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