USA vs. Canada Olympic Women’s Hockey Picks: Rivals Battle for Gold

The gold-medal matchup was foretold far in advance, the same as it ever was. And yet a women’s hockey final between Canada and USA remains a compelling matchup. Here is a look at our picks for the USA-Canada Olympic women’s hockey gold-medal game.

Canada has been in demolition mode during this tournament, reaching double digits in two wins against Switzerland as well as in victories against Finland and Sweden. Canada also won 6-1 against Russia and 4-2 over the USA.

That win should give Canada confidence going into the gold-medal game, but it was also a game in which USA outshot Canada 53-27. That is not especially sustainable for a team to require 50-plus saves from its goaltender.

While Team USA has been similarly dominant in terms of controlling play, the team has not been finishing like the Canadian team, exceeding five goals just once, in an 8-0 win over Switzerland.

A struggling power play and that lack of finish is a challenge that USA will have to overcome if its to take the gold medal.

Here are my picks and predictions for Wednesday’s Olympic women’s hockey matchup between USA and Canada (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, BetRivers; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

USA vs. Canada Game Info

Date/Time: Wednesday, Feb. 16, 11:10 p.m. ET
TV: nbcolympics.com, Peacock, CBC Gem
Location: Wukesong Sports Centre, Beijing, China

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USA vs. Canada Odds Analysis

The Canadians are a decisive favorite. Given how they have steamrolled through the Olympic tournament and their success against USA in the Rivalry Tour leading up to the Olympics, it shouldn’t come as a surprise. Moneyline prices range from -200 at BetRivers to -220 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Taking USA as the underdog on the moneyline pays +165 on BetRivers and can be found for +176 at FanDuel.

The puck line is more challenging because so many of the games between Canada and USA tend to be close. BetRivers has Canada -1.5 goals at +148 odds, while DraftKings is offering USA +1.5 goals at -155.

For a more level ice surface, BetMGM has Canada minus a goal for -105, while USA plus a goal goes for -115.

Most of the sportsbooks have the total at five. BetMGM has the Over at -111 and Under at -115. FanDuel has pushed the total to 5.5, offering the Over at +128 and the Under at -158.

USA vs. Canada Picks

• Canada ML (-200 via BetRivers) ★★
• Under 5.5 (-158 via FanDuel) ★★★

SEE ALSO: Finland vs. Switzerland Olympic Women’s Hockey Bronze Medal Game

USA vs. Canada Predictions

Canada ML (-200)

While Team Canada did win the head-to-head matchup in the preliminary round, that massive shot differential in favor of the United States could raise some doubts. There is not a massive difference between the two teams and the shot totals have been much more even in other games, but Canada has been emerging victorious more frequently.

Considering the results from the six games in the pre-Olympic Rivalry Tour in addition to the first matchup between the teams in Beijing, Canada has won five of the past seven games. That might sound lopsided, but two of the wins for Canada came in overtime and one of the wins for the United States was in overtime. Five of the seven games have been decided by one goal and the other two games were decided by two.

Canada’s dominance in the Olympics is reflected by having the top six scorers in the tournament.

Team USA has great top-end talent as well, but they have not been as productive in this tournament. While USA has seven forwards scoring at least a point-per-game through the first six games, the top scorer has been Hilary Knight, who has nine points, which would be tied for eighth on Team Canada.

Losing veteran forward Brianna Decker to a broken leg in the first game of the Olympics adds to the challenge up front for Team USA, so they will need their leaders – Amanda Kessel, Alex Carpenter, Kendall Coyne-Schofield, even defender Savannah Harmon – to rise to the challenge offensively. It would be a shock if this game was a blowout, so timely scoring is likely going to play a significant role in the outcome.

Canada and USA always seem to play close games. Over the past four months or so, Canada has had the edge when it comes to squeezing out a victory, so that’s the side to take once again.

Under 5.5 (-158)

When Canada took a 4-2 decision against the USA in the preliminary round, that was the only time since the start of the Rivalry Tour, that a Canada-USA game reached six goals. In the Rivalry Tour, the totals were four, five, five, one, three, five.

Goaltenders Ann-Renée Desbiens for Canada and Alex Cavallini for USA have played well in these Olympics. That’s further reason to suspect that the gold-medal game is not going to suddenly become a high-scoring affair.

While Canada and, to a lesser extent, Team USA can fill the net against lesser teams, their head-to-head games end up as tight-checking battles. Both teams know that a gold medal is ultimately at stake whenever they head to an international tournament, so the teams tend to fight for every inch of ice. That leads to lower-scoring games and nudges this one towards the Under.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

USA-Canada picks made 2/14/2022 at 5:47 p.m. ET

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