UFC Best Bets Today: Top Picks for UFC Fight Night

A showdown between a pair of top-10 light heavyweights headlines the card on Saturday night when Thiago Santos chucks fists against Jamahal Hill in the main event of UFC Vegas 59. Read on for our UFC Vegas 59 best bets.

Hill is riding a two-fight winning streak that’s included consecutive first-round finishes, and he’ll try to burst into the division’s upper echelon at Santos’ expense. Once a terrifying figure at light heavyweight, Santos will be fighting to maintain his tenuous grasp on a place amongst the division’s elite.

Also on the card: A potential barnburner between Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal, and a pair of Ultimate Fighter finale bouts.

Here are our best bets for Saturday’s UFC Vegas 59 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UFC Vegas 59 Card & Odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

• Thiago Santos (+265) vs. Jamahal Hill (-320)
• Vicente Luque (-180) vs. Geoff Neal (+155)
• Mohammed  Usman (+230) vs. Zac Pauga (-275)
• Brogan Walker (+100) vs. Juliana Miller (-120)
• Augusto Sakai (+235) vs. Sergey Spivak (-280)
• Ariane Lipski (-180) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+155)
• Sam Alvey (+450) vs. Michael Oleksiejczuk (-600)
• Bryan Battle (-285) vs. Takashi Sato (+240)
• Terrance McKinney (-850) vs. Erick Gonzalez (+600)
• Jason Witt (+205) vs. Josh Quinlan (-245)
• Mayra Bueno SIlva (+115) vs. Stephanie Egger (-135)

UFC Vegas 59 Best Bets

• Fight Line: Vicente Luque (-170 via Caesars) ★★★★
• Upset: Mayra Bueno Silva (+115 via Caesars) ★★★
• Winning Method: Jamahal Hill by KO/TKO/DQ (-150 via DraftKings) ★★★★
• Prop Bet: Hill-Santos to end via KO/TKO (-280 via FanDuel) ★★★★
• Parlay: Silva (+106) + Luque (-188) + Hill vs. Santos to end via KO/TKO (-280 via FanDuel)

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

UFC Vegas 59 Top Picks

Fight Line: Luque (-170)

Luque is a bigger favorite at other sportsbooks, so there’s some definite value in backing him at -170.

Not only is “The Silent Assassin” a venomous finisher, but he sports an iron chin and can polish off his opponents with a torrent of strikes or a slick submission. Neal isn’t a bad fighter, but he’s just fallen short every time the 31-year-old has taken a step up in competition, with losses to Neil Magny and Stephen Thompson.

Luque throws with more volume, variety, and accuracy, and he should be able to piece together some flashy ferocious combinations punctuated with devastating leg kicks on Saturday night. He’ll win violently.

Upset: Silva (+115)

This pick hinges on Silva’s ability to keep the fight off the ground.

“Sheetara” isn’t a striking wizard, but she’s aggressive and lands more than three times as many significant strikes per minute than Egger. For her part, Egger is a judo specialist, and she’ll look to dump Silva on her head from the clinch while working from top control.

Despite her shortcomings as a defensive wrestler, Silva’s sheer striking volume and activity will carry her past Eggers. She won’t be able to match the Brazilian’s pace or output for 15 minutes.

Winning Method: Hill by KO/TKO/DQ (-150)

Unfortunately, Santos is merely a husk of the fighter who took Jon Jones to the limit back at UFC 239. “Marreta” is 1-3 since that fateful night against the greatest light heavyweight in history, with devastating knee injuries all but robbing him of his explosive power.

On the other end of the spectrum, the surging Hill is younger, faster, and there’s a lot more tread left on his tires. “Sweet Dreams” has roasted his last two opponents while scoring a pair of first-round knockouts, including a scintillating KO of Johnny Walker. Hill blasted Walker with a gigantic right hand, toppling the Brazilian like a mighty redwood. All that triumph needed was Hill screaming “timber” as Walker went crashing to the canvas.

Although I don’t expect Hill to run roughshod over Santos, he’ll close it out before the final bell.

This angle of Jamahal Hill’s knockout over Walker is NUTS pic.twitter.com/760sRoUzkA

— Spinnin Backfist (@SpinninBackfist) August 1, 2022

Prop Bet: Hill-Santos to end via KO/TKO (-280)

Three of Hill’s four wins inside the Octagon have come via KO/TKO, while Santos has logged 15 over his 22 career victories. One of these guys is taking a nap on Saturday night.

Hill is most likely to emerge victorious. But if Santos pulls off the upset, it would likely come via KO too. Injuries may have zapped much of his terrifying power, but Santos still hits ridiculously hard.

This one will finish early no matter who wins.

Parlay: Silva (+106) + Luque (-188) + Hill vs. Santos to end via KO/TKO (-280) = +328

Where to Bet on UFC Best Bets

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

UFC 277 best bets made on 7/30/2022 at 10:45 a.m. ET.

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