Top College Basketball Expert Picks for Friday: Focusing on the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament

Friday’s expert college basketball picks highlight some late-night action between under-the-radar programs.

Our hoops experts select their top against the spread and Over/Under picks for Friday’s college basketball games (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and BetMGM; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Friday’s College Basketball Expert Picks

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College Basketball Expert ATS Predictions

Southeast Missouri State +16 (-110 via DraftKings)

It may seem like a foregone conclusion for many that we will eventually be looking at a Murray State-Belmont OVC Tournament final, as those two teams were the class of the conference all year long. However, we are factoring in that general public logic into our best ATS play. We're siding with the underdog in a heavy contrarian play.

Southeast Missouri State came the closest of any OVC team to handing Murray State its only league loss this season. The Racers escaped with a two-point road win over the Redhawks in the regular-season finale. SEMO was up 12 points with six minutes to play, as it used hot-shooting to build a big early lead.

The Redhawks are a dangerous team that plays at a breakneck tempo (13th-fastest in the country) and can shoot their way to a win over anybody. They are the OVC’s best team in league play from beyond the arc, connecting on 36.4% of their 3-point attempts. The Redhawks are susceptible in rim protection, but they can turn this game into chaos. That may be their best chance to upset the Racers.

Murray State is a lock for the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens the rest of the way, and it is possible it already has sights set on a third meeting with Belmont. Thus, SEMO is a live underdog after nearly upsetting Murray State in the last meeting. - Spector

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Belmont -4.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

Morehead State looks like the most plausible candidate to give the OVC a tournament champion that actually plans to stick around in the conference beyond this month; however, I expect Belmont to squash that hope on Friday.

Belmont (25-6, 15-3) doesn't have the juice for an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Two more wins over the weekend in Evansville, IN, represent the Bruins' only path. Friday's game with Morehead State (23-10, 13-5) will display clashing styles of play between Belmont's No. 78 adjusted tempo in the nation and Morehead's No. 299 pace.

The Bruins' ability to dictate the pace should be a big advantage. Belmont ranks 10th in the country in steals per game and will see an Eagles team that commits turnovers with frequency; Morehead State falls outside the top 250 in college basketball in turnovers per game. Though the Eagles scored only one win over the Bruins this season, Belmont has started to hit its stride since that game. Belmont won 11 of its last 12 games. The only loss was at Murray State, the Goliath of the conference.

The Bruins have arguably underachieved for much of this season, considering they returned nearly everyone from a strong roster the prior year. March is historically when Belmont puts its best foot forward. It should have the juice to do so on Friday in order to set up one last stab against the Racers in the OVC Championship Game. - Schaeffer

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College Basketball Expert O/U Picks

Buffalo-Kent State Over 145.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Buffalo is the third-highest scoring team in the Mid-American Conference, averaging 80.9 points per game. It faces a Kent State team that has won 11 consecutive games, scoring 77.5 PPG in that span, well above its 71.3 PPG season scoring average. In an evenly matched game that could come down to the final possession, we find more value in the total than this short point spread.

In this rematch, we are getting an under-inflated line as the first meeting between these teams totaled just 115 points. However, that slugfest is an anomaly between these teams, as at least one side topped 70 points in eight of their last nine meetings. 

Kent State’s usually solid rim protection looked vulnerable in the first head-to-head meeting, as it allowed the Bulls to shoot 65.5% from inside the arc. However, Buffalo was held way under its season scoring average because it shot just 7-for-30 from 3-point range and just 5-for-12 from the free-throw line. 

In addition, we look for a much better game from Kent State guard Sincere Carry, who was held to just nine points on 4-for-15 shooting in the first matchup. Carry scored at least 20 points in four of his last five games, including a 42-point outburst in one of the best individual performances of the season against Ball State. 

Though the Under cashed in eight of Kent State’s 12 road games, each team’s offense is playing too well entering this game to not expect a much higher-scoring game in this rematch. - Spector

Loyola Marymount-BYU Under 143 (-110 via DraftKings)

BYU takes on Loyola Marymount in their first match of the West Coast Conference Tournament needing to avoid a bad loss that would hamper its NCAA Tournament resume. As a 12-point favorite at DraftKings, the Cougars are clearly expected to handle business over the Lions. However, conference tournaments can be tricky beasts. If BYU has any trouble getting acclimated to the scoring environment early, I see this game staying well below the total. 

Loyola gave BYU all it could handle in an 83-82 win for the Cougars at LMU in early February. However, the Lions scored just 59 points in a 20-point loss to BYU on Feb. 24. The Cougars won that game 79-59 for a total of 138 points. In a neutral site in Las Vegas on Friday, I expect an outcome more similar to the second meeting between these two teams.

LMU posted 86 points in a win over Pacific in the 8-9 game on Thursday. My expectation for Friday would be that the Lions come out a little fatigued with their shooting touch. Back-to-back games throughout conference tournament weekends can wear on a team. Considering the lack of success the Lions had against BYU's top 75 defense in their recent meeting, I don't expect LMU to carry its end of the bargain in getting this game to hit the Over.

Even if BYU performs to its typical standard with around 75 points on Friday, I don't see Loyola Marymount reaching very far beyond 60 points in a game that finishes Under 143. - Schaeffer

Utah State-San Jose State Under 137.5 (-110 via Caesars)

When it comes to dark horses to watch for in conference tournaments next week, Utah State certainly fits the bill. Despite an underwhelming record in a loaded Mountain West Conference, the Aggies boast a top-60 overall efficiency rating according to KenPom. Along with ranking 71st in adjusted defense, USU is No. 48 in offensive efficiency.

That being said, the Aggies play at a pretty slow tempo, much like the majority of teams in the MWC. While they have been extremely efficient with their possessions, an average of 67.0 possessions per 40 minutes of gameplay ranks only 204th by adjusted tempo. Friday's opponent, the San Jose State Spartans, rank even lower at No. 268. 

As the armpit of the MWC, SJSU also predictability has very poor rankings in offensive (No. 252) and defensive (No. 298) efficiency. Friday is senior night at San Jose State, which would presumably heighten the level of play on defense, the side of the floor that is controlled by hustle and effort.

Combine this with a stingy Utah State defense and slow tempos both ways, and taking the Under makes sense. Note too that the line of 137.5 offers a half-point of value compared to other sportsbooks. - John

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