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The Open Championship Odds, Picks and Preview 2022: Rory Reigns at St Andrews

July 13, 2022
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Open Championship week has finally arrived, with the 150th running of the event taking place at St Andrews, The Home of Golf. We preview the final major of 2022 with our top Open Championship picks based on the odds at our top-rated sportsbooks.

St Andrews Links hosts The Open Championship for the 30th time. The historic 150th running of golf’s oldest and most storied major concludes the 2022 major season, with the beginning of the FedEx Cup Playoffs just under a month away.

Xander Schauffele shot up the oddsboard with his victory during last week’s Scottish Open, his second straight win on the PGA Tour. He joins Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Scottie Scheffler as the consensus betting favorites for The Open at St Andrews.

Scheffler seeks his second major championship of the year after winning the Masters in April. Justin Thomas (PGA Championship) and Matt Fitzpatrick (U.S. Open) will also be looking for their second major wins of the season.

Meanwhile, Collin Morikawa will defend his 2021 Open Championship win at Royal St. George’s. And Tiger Woods is chasing his fourth Claret Jug, and third at St Andrews.

Below, we look at the odds for the favorites and contenders, and the values and longshots for the 2022 Open Championship with our PGA Tour futures picks.

The Open Championship Info

When: Thursday, July 14 – Sunday, July 17
Where: St Andrews, Scotland
Defending champion: Collin Morikawa (Royal St. George’s)
How to watch: Golf Channel, NBC

St Andrews Course Profile

Par: 72
Length: 7,305
Greens: Fescue

The winning scores during the last four runnings of The Open at St Andrews have ranged from minus-14 to minus-19, with Woods firing both figures. Zach Johnson won at minus-15 in 2019 after a playoff over Marc Leishman and 2010 Open champion Louis Oosthuizen.

The Old Course is relatively short and very flat. Harsh Scottish winds and deep pot bunkers pose the biggest threats. The firm greens can also play extremely fast, helping to force drivers out of the hands of the Tour’s longer hitters who hope to hit the putting surfaces from the tee. All but four holes feature a shared double green, and rain can make the fescue rough extra difficult.

Seven of the 14 par 4s are shorter than 400 yards and range from 348 to 397 yards. The par 3s check in at 175 and 174 yards, with the par 5s playing to 568 and 618 yards.

Winds in St Andrews this week are expected to range from 14 to 18 mph. There’s a chance of rain on Friday and Saturday.

The Open Championship 2022 Odds

Open Championship Odds Analysis

Schauffele surged up the board with his second consecutive win last week. Many of our top sportsbooks priced him at +2200 prior to the start of the Scottish Open. In response, most books have significantly raised the odds on Rahm and Scheffler, who remain at No. 3 and No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), respectively.

Jordan Spieth and Shane Lowry are also among those whose odds have been boosted this week, relative to their world rankings. Viktor Hovland, who's ranked ninth in the world, goes the other way with a share of just the 16th-best consensus odds.

Tiger, who opened at +6000 to win The Open, was offered as high as +8000 via PointsBet as of Monday morning. He's among the biggest liabilities at most sportsbooks, even after withdrawing from the PGA Championship and U.S. Open due to lingering injuries.

Open Championship Key Stats

  • Strokes gained: tee-to-green
  • SG: approach
  • SG: around-the-green
  • 3-putt avoidance
  • Birdie or better percentage
  • Par 4 efficiency: 350-400 yards

We can't rely on course history this week since St Andrews last hosted The Open in 2015, with previous events in 2010 and 2005. However, the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship plays two rounds at St Andrews every year. Recent winners of that event include Danny Willett, Victor Perez, and Tyrrell Hatton (2016 and 2017).

The short par 4s are the key efficiency metric to consider. That's a yardage range we rarely look at for PGA Tour events held on North American soil. Tee-to-green, approach, and around-the-green are our top strokes gained statistics this week, with iron and wedge play top of mind.

While putting is extremely important at the Old Course, three-putt avoidance is much more standardized and predictable than SG: putting.

Open Championship Picks

Who Will Win the Open Championship?

McIlroy (+1000)

McIlroy has played The Open Championship at St Andrews only once. He tied for third as a 21-year-old in 2010.

The 2014 Champion Golfer of the Year missed the 2015 Open at St Andrews, but he proceeded to finish T-5 or better in each of the next three runnings of the event. While he didn't make the cut in 2019 and tied for just 46th in 2021, McIlroy finished no worse than eighth in the first three majors of 2022. The winner of the RBC Canadian Open has logged six other top-10 finishes over the past calendar year while rising from No. 9 to No. 2 in the OWGR.

McIlroy is second on the PGA Tour in SG: tee-to-green, 13th in SG: approach, 47th in SG: around-the-green, fifth in birdie or better percentage, and tied for 13th in par 4 efficiency: 350-400 yards this season. He also leads all golfers with 2.96 true total strokes gained on the field per round across everyone's last 20 rounds.

The Northern Irishman didn't play the Scottish Open, but he was seen playing practice rounds in Scotland with Woods. He's a strong bet to end his seven-plus-year major drought, especially with the added value at PointsBet.

Zalatoris (+3000)

Will Zalatoris ranks third among all golfers with 1.97 true total strokes gained per round across the last 20 rounds. Oft-maligned for his putting, he's actually gaining 0.68 strokes per round with his flat stick in that time, and Zalatoris ranks a respectable 56th for the season in three-putt avoidance.

The 25-year-old withdrew from his first outing at The Open Championship in 2021, but he's finished T-8 or better in six of his seven other major appearances dating back to 2020. Zalatoris' odds to win The Open are his highest compared to the other majors in 2022, even though his price has dropped from a consensus opening of +6000.

Zalatoris also excels on short par 4s, ranking second on Tour in 2022. He leads both the PGA Tour and McIlroy in SG: tee-to-green and SG: approach, and ranks 25th in birdie or better percentage.

Take advantage of a price that's inflated due to Zalatoris' lack of experience in The Open.

Burns (+4500)

Sam Burns hasn't yet experienced success during golf's four biggest events. He's logged a top finish of T-20, which came during the 2022 PGA Championship. His first appearance at The Open resulted in a T-76 finish in 2021.

However, Burns is now a four-time PGA Tour champion, with three of those victories coming since the 2021 Open. He's averaged 2.03 true total strokes gained on the field across his last 20 rounds, with two top-five finishes over the 25-year-old's previous six events. He's third among all golfers with 0.97 SG: putting in that time, and 41st in three-putt avoidance in 2022. Burns is also 10th in birdie or better percentage and 12th in SG: approach.

Fox (+9000)

A two-time winner on the European/DP World Tour, Ryan Fox hasn't earned the name recognition of most contenders this week. However, the New Zealander has been playing excellent golf in 2022. He reached a career-best No. 46 in the OWGR, with a top-five finish in each of his last four DP World Tour events prior to a T-47 during the Scottish Open last week.

Fox has been gaining strokes in all key fields across his last six events, including 1.48 SG: tee-to-green and 0.81 SG: approach per round. He tied for 49th during the 2015 Open Championship at St Andrews while gaining a modest amount of experience at the venue.

We're getting the worst of a number that was as high as +15000 in mid-June, but the +9000 is still tremendous value given Fox's recent form.

What About Tiger Woods?

Odds for Tiger to win The Open began to plummet on Monday. He started the day with odds as high as +8000 via PointsBet, but his price fell to a market-best of +6600 via BetMGM as of Monday afternoon. If you want to bet on Tiger to win his 16th major, get in as soon as possible. His odds will keep dropping as the liability for sportsbooks grows leading up to Thursday morning.

Tiger and bettors are relying on his excellent history at St Andrews because he's been away from competitive golf since withdrawing from the PGA Championship. Though he missed the cut in 2015, Tiger tied for 23rd in 2010 after winning in 2005. The flatter walk will also be better suited to his surgically repaired legs and back than both Augusta National and Southern Hills.

FanDuel Sportsbook and PointsBet are offering +600 odds for Tiger to finish in the top 10 this week.

Recent Open Championship Winners

(Consensus odds prior to the start of Round 1)

  • 2021: Collin Morikawa (+3000)
  • 2019: Shane Lowry (+8000)
  • 2018: Francesco Molinari (+2500)
  • 2017: Jordan Spieth (+1200)
  • 2016: Henrik Stenson (+2500)
  • 2015: Zach Johnson (+8000)
  • 2014: Rory McIlroy (+1200)
  • 2013: Phil Mickelson (+1500)
  • 2012: Ernie Els (+4000)

Longshot Open Championship Winners

  • Lowry (+8000) 2019
  • Johnson (+8000) 2015
  • Darren Clarke (+15000) 2011
  • Louis Oosthuizen (+20000) 2010
  • Stewart Cink (+12500) 2009
  • Todd Hamilton (2004) Not listed - part of The Field

More Open Championship Picks

Where to Bet on the 2022 Open Championship

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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