Should The Bucs Change Their Run Game?

It took nine weeks, but the Bucs finally had a good rushing game!  Week 10 marked the first-time all-season Tampa Bay’s run game was able to generate a positive epa/play (0.0186). This means that this was the first game all season where each time the Bucs ran the ball, on average, they improved their chances of scoring. And while many will point to the volume of carries as the reason for the success I will point to a much different reason. I don’t think it was the number of runs, so much as the Bucs variation of runs that aided in their newfound success.

In football, run plays can be classified into eight different groups: man, inside zone, outside zone, power, counter, pull-lead, gap and draw. Many Bucs fans have heard of the Bucs traditional “Duo” scheme which would be classified under the “Man” umbrella.

Bucs Changed Their Mixture Of Runs

For the season here is how the Bucs have varied their run game through Week 9.

Now let’s compare it to Week 10 versus Seattle.

It may be difficult to read, so let me summarize some of the high-level changes. The Bucs increased their inside zone (from 15% to 26%) and power (10% to 16%), while reducing their outside zone (11% to 5%) and man (36% to 32%). And the changes seem to have made a significant difference in the effectiveness of the running game.

Bucs Ran Out Of Shotgun A Lot

When watching the game back one change becomes obvious in this game. The Bucs ran out of shotgun a ton – 16 of their 38 true rushing attempts came from the gun. And those runs generated a relatively neutral EPA/play (which is good considering running generally creates negative epa). Rookie Rachaad White in particular looked great out of the gun with a positive EPA/play on his seven carries. Here is a great example of one of those runs.

This is the second play of the third drive of the game. It is second-and-7 from the Tampa Bay 15. Here the Bucs are in 11 personnel with a 3×1 set from shotgun with Julio Jones and Chris Godwin in a tight split to the field. The Seahawks are showing a two-high coverage look. They ran this two-high about 70% of the time, almost baiting the Bucs to run as it generally meant the Bucs had favorable numbers in the box.

On this play the Bucs are +1 on the box count against Seattle’s over-front. They run a simple power run with center Robert Hainsey moving to the second level to get to the Mike linebacker while tight end Cade Otton pulls to the “B” gap and moves up to secure the strongside linebacker. Left guard Nick Leverett secures the three-technique and Hainsey is able to get enough of a push on a double-team before climbing that there is a hole the size of Munich opened up for White to bust through. For his part, White accelerates through the line quickly for 10 yards and a new set of downs.

Bucs Had Success When Pulling Otton

Tight end Cade Otton is far from a finished or polished product. As a rookie, he is still adapting to the size and speed of NFL defenders. While he could eventually become a consistently plus blocker, he is nowhere near that right now. But the Bucs can make things easier on him and put him in more advantageous positions to win his blocks more often. One way of doing that is by having him block on the move as a puller more often. From what I can see, he is far more confident and effective when he is pulling than when he is asked to secure a block from a stationary position.

On this second-and-8 Otton is going to pull along with right guard Shaq Mason from the strong side to the weak as the lead blocker on another shotgun run. Linebacker Cody Barton (No. 57) reads the direction of the run and immediately tries to fill at the end of the line anticipating the Bucs pulling the backside guard to take out the end man on the line (No. 51, Bruce Irvin).

With Mason accomplishing just that, Otton is now tasked with sealing the edge and taking Barton out. With momentum on his side, Otton attacks Barton, driving into his shoulders and successfully sealing the edge. This allows Leonard Fournette to cut up field inside of Otton for a 10-yard gain.

Here’s another one later in the game.

The Bucs went back to the same play moving in the opposite direction on another second-and-8. This time Otton is going to pull behind left guard Leverett to the right. While Leverett isn’t able to blow up the crashing edge, Otton is still able to provide Fournette with a hole by blowing up Barton once again. Confidence can be a real weapon for a young player in the NFL and it’s clear that Otton has a lot more confidence when he is blocking on the move as opposed to a rep like this.

This is a duo concept that goes nowhere. The reason it doesn’t go anywhere is because Irvin is able to easily dispatch Otton, who is attempting to block him one-on-one and penetrates to backfield to wrap up Ke’Shawn Vaughn for no gain. Irvin is a very good run defender who had a stellar game overall (as evidenced by his 75.7 Pro Football Focus run defense grade). The staple “duo” run concept the Bucs run requires their tight ends to be able to consistently block the end man on the line.

This is more often than not, large edge rushers who can out-muscle guys like Otton and Cam Brate. And it is often why an otherwise successful run play ends up doomed.

Bucs Most Efficient Run Continues To Be Counter

The only run scheme the Bucs have a positive EPA on for the season is counter. A play whereby the offense fakes as if they are going to run to one side, only to counter back to the other. It makes sense that Tampa Bay is relatively successful in this play call as their running game is fairly predictable in general. So, when they go for a fake the defense is typically taken off-guard. And that’s partly why the Bucs were able to rattle off this 29-yarder by White.

This is the third play of the Bucs eighth drive of the game. They had just picked up a first down and it was late in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks were once again in a two-high look, with seven defenders in the box the Bucs were at even numbers while Brady was under center from an I-formation.

Off the snap the Bucs offensive line was able to effectively down block Seattle’s three down linemen. The left edge Uchenna Nwosu was taken out of the play with the misdirection forcing him to slow and breakdown in case he was the front side defender. Tristan Wirfs was able to peel off his double-team just enough to knock Uwosu to the ground and prevent him from possibly chasing the play down from the backside.

That’s four defenders accounted for. Three are left plus a fourth in the form of safety Ryan Neal. Mason pulls from right to left to block Irvin coming from the right edge. Meanwhile, h-back Ko Kieft leads the way for White by sealing the edge by blocking linebacker Jordyn Brooks (No. 56) who was flowing to the play side.

The Bucs blocking scheme finishes with good second level blocks by Otton on Barton (again!) and Chris Godwin on Neal. All of this gives White plenty of room to use his vision and patience to bounce inside of Kieft and then outside of Godwin before turning on the jets. He is able to narrowly avoid a shoestring tackle by Tariq Woolen before manhandling Quandre Diggs, who took a terrible angle to the ball. That stiff arm earned White a pretty coveted award as well!

Bucs Can Be More Successful With A More Varied Approach

My hope is that offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich uses the mix of runs in this game as a template for the future. Now I want to be very clear, I am not advocating for this much volume (at least not on first down). But the Bucs were able to achieve some level of success on the ground by mixing in a more varied approach.

Personally, I would love to see the Bucs reduce their reliance on duo from 35%to more around the 20% mark with a corresponding uptick in inside zone (from 15% to 23%) and power and pull-lead moving from a combined 23% to 30%. Add in Rachaad White getting more of the inside zone looks due to his superior vision and continued increase in gun runs, and the Bucs could have a real-life viable running game.

There is a saying that goes “Variety is the spice of life.” Here’s to hoping that Leftwich continues to get spicy with the Bucs run game.