Saturday’s College Basketball Best Bets: Can Duke Cover Against Virginia Tech?

There are plenty of opportunities to cash in on Saturday during the college basketball conference tournaments. Let’s dive in with our college basketball best bets.

We’re one day away from Selection Sunday, so prepare for nets to be cut, for some confetti dreams to die, and for others to be fulfilled. And of course, get ready to cash some bets.

We ran through the Saturday conference tournament slate identifying our favorite bets from across the board. Our picks feature everything from moneyline bets and upset picks to more standard against the spread and Over/Under wagers.

For good measure, we’re even throwing in a three-leg parlay involving some compelling conference championship games.

Here are Saturday’s college basketball best bets based on the odds from our top-rated sportsbooks.

Saturday’s College Basketball Best Bets

• Moneyline: UCLA (+100 via DraftKings) vs. Arizona ★★★★
• Against the spread: San Diego State -2.5 (-110 via DraftKings, FanDuel) vs. Boise State ★★★★
• Over/Under: Texas Tech-Kansas Under 134.5 (-110 via DraftKings, FanDuel) ★★★★
• Upset: Alcorn State (+150 via DraftKings) vs. Texas Southern ★★★★
• Parlay: Duke -6 (-110) + UAB -3 (-105) + Villanova -7 (-110) = +595 (via DraftKings) ★★★★

SEE ALSO: March Madness Odds and Picks

Saturday’s College Basketball Picks

Moneyline: UCLA (+100)

Backing UCLA on the point spread is the better bet at DraftKings Sportsbook, as you gain 1.5 points while only going from +100 to -110 on the odds. But I’m comfortable and confident in the Bruins heading into this marquee Pac-12 Championship Game matchup with Arizona. The conference’s two best teams also rank among the nation’s top seven, according to KenPom.

In what could be a Final Four preview, UCLA and Arizona will look to break the tie following a season when each side recorded a double-digit win against the other. UCLA will use its more precise tempo to frustrate Arizona.

The Bruins boast a slightly better defense, according to the metrics, and they defend effectively while using their half-court style of play. The Bruins will not fall victim to the Wildcats’ attempts to speed them up and get the team out of its comfort zone.

UCLA should beat the Wildcats if it takes care of the basketball.

Against the spread: San Diego State -2.5 (-110)

The Mountain West Conference will make some noise during March Madness, but the league needs to determine a champion first. Despite Boise State winning the conference’s regular-season title, the San Diego State Aztecs rightfully enter Saturday’s championship game as the favorites.

San Diego State has earned KenPom’s highest ranking of any Mountain West team, checking in at No. 22. The Aztecs boast the No. 2 adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation, which could be problematic for a Broncos team that can struggle to score. So do the Aztecs though, and Boise’s adjusted offensive efficiency is far superior.

But San Diego State’s defensive intensity should help it overcome any of its offensive deficiencies on Saturday.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Over/Under: Texas Tech-Kansas Under 134.5 (-110)

Texas Tech and Kansas have produced some higher-scoring affairs this season, including 160 points during their last meeting. But I’m expecting a different type of contest in the Big 12 Tournament Championship Game on Saturday. There will be a defensive rock fight between two athletic and disciplined teams on that end of the floor.

The Red Raiders have been grinding defensively. Texas Tech held Iowa State to 41 points before limiting Oklahoma’s offense in a 56-55 semifinal win Friday. Though Kansas produced an outburst for 87 points against West Virginia, TCU’s defense challenged the school a bit more while holding the Jayhawks to 75 points on Friday.

The Red Raiders are a test on an entirely different level because of how KenPom’s top-rated defense is performing. Projecting a winner here is tough, but Texas Tech should ensure points are at a premium.

Upset: Alcorn State (+150 via DraftKings)

The recipe for upsets in small conference tournaments is two teams with a similar style meeting, and the hot-shooting squad prevails. In the case of the SWAC Tournament final, the definition of an upset can often be misleading.

If you’re looking to back top-seeded Alcorn State as the favorite against No. 2 Texas Southern on Saturday, the Braves’ performance during the conference slate would say you’re right. Yet Vegas says you’re mistaken.

The Braves are listed as four-point underdogs at DraftKings against a Texas Southern team that they edged out in the SWAC standings 14-4 to 13-5. Alcorn State also beat Texas Southern twice during the regular season.

The 75-72 and 73-72 scores of those games would indicate that another close contest is in store for Saturday with a trip to the Big Dance on the line. KenPom ranks Texas Southern more than 50 spots higher, and the metrics play a role in the point spread. But trust Alcorn to win once more after getting it done twice in this matchup.

Alcorn +4 is a four-and-a-half-star play for me, and I’m on the Moneyline here too. Neither squad rates very well offensively, but Alcorn holds a narrow advantage in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.

There’s also something on the Braves’ side that’s difficult to quantify: Luck. Alcorn is the No. 8 team in the nation in KenPom’s luck metric. That will continue for one more game on Saturday.

Take Alcorn State as the upset pick in our college basketball best bets.

Parlay: Duke -6 (-110) + UAB -3 (-105) + Villanova -7 (-110)

Duke players were walking off the floor after their semifinal win over Miami telling sideline reporters they wanted a shot at revenge over North Carolina the next day. But UNC then lost to Virginia Tech.

The Hokies are arguably fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives on Saturday in the ACC Tournament final, as many experts have put Virginia Tech squarely on the bubble.

Though the Hokies have everything to play for on Saturday, they would need to execute their game plan to perfection for a second straight outing to make up for the talent disparity. After a close call with Miami on Friday, Duke will look to take command of its situation heading into the Blue Devils’ final March Madness under Coach K.

The Hokies will play well, but not well enough to cover this line against Duke. Give me the Blue Devils by 8-to-10 points.

Next up is the Conference USA Championship Game featuring Louisiana Tech and UAB. The Blazers have been scoring like crazy to get into this spot. They dispatched Florida Atlantic and then broke 100 during an overtime win over Middle Tennessee State in the semifinals.

UAB beat Louisiana Tech 87-74 in its final regular-season game, and it hasn’t slowed down from that scoring pace during this conference tournament. UAB will cover the 3-point spread while keeping up the offensive intensity that’s made the Blazers successful recently. But I’m even more confident in UAB getting scoring into the mid-70s while helping the Over cash.

Lastly, how often do you see a team play the game of its life in March to come up with an unexpected upset, and then return the next day to lay an egg against another top opponent? That’s going to be Creighton on Saturday.

The Bluejays dominated top-seed Providence in the Big East semifinal on Friday. Everything went right for the No. 4 seed.

Meanwhile, No. 2 Villanova won a hard-fought game against No. 3 UConn to get here. As a top-12 KenPom team, the Wildcats’ eyes should be on the prize with supreme focus during their final tuneup before March Madness.

Creighton has earned its way into the tournament field as an at-large team, but their run through the Big East ends in convincing disappointment Saturday because the Bluejays will run out of gas.

Combined parlay odds: +595

Where to Bet on Our Best College Basketball Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

College basketball best bets made 3/12/2022 at 1:47 p.m. ET

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