Ride or Die: The Fantasy Footballers Predictions for Week 13

New name, same great segment. “Ride or Die” pits The Ballers against each other with three players to meet a certain number each week. Each Baller will pick the player to “Ride” or “Die” with the stat, similar to a “prop” bet.

Each week I will be here to recap where each of the Ballers took the wheel or gave a nice tuck and roll out of the vehicle for each one. Of course, I’ll weigh in as well and we’ll keep score throughout the season so you can see how smart I really am.

As always, let me know if you’re jumping in the passenger’s seat with me or think I’m driving the crazy train here or on Twitter: @KurtKnowsBest.

“Ride or Die” Scoreboard

What’s a contest without keeping score? For the second-straight week, I find myself sitting at the top of the mountain, going 3/3 on predictions. Andy joins me on top from last week with a perfect stretch. Mike & Jason both got two of three correct. What matters the most is the season total, where Jason has a healthy lead.

To hear the entire “Ride or Die” segment, listen to the November 30 episode of the podcast: Ride or Die + Crucial Start/Sit Decisions, TNF Preview

Alvin Kamara (NO) at Tampa Bay: 10 Fantasy Points (Half-Point PPR)

It has been an up-and-down season for fantasy managers who decided to invest in Alvin Kamara. Kamara had a stretch from Week 5 to Week 11 where he was only outside of the top 24 once, but those are the only weeks this season he’s been a top-24 option. Kamara is averaging just 7.2 fantasy points in half-point PPR formats over his last four games, so the 10 fantasy point line is a fair one to be set here.

Andy decided to “Die” on this prediction solely based on his lack of belief in the Saints’ offense against the Buccaneers’ defense. Tampa’s defense is currently giving up the 4th fewest points to opposing fantasy RBs.

Jason and I are going to “Ride” with Kamara this week, just based on the amount of involvement that the RB is sure to have. Last week Kamara saw 14 opportunities (seven carries, seven targets) but only managed four fantasy points. There hasn’t been a game this season where Kamara has seen fewer than 12 opportunities.

Amari Cooper (CLE) at Houston: Top-12 Fantasy WR

Amari Cooper has been one of the more surprising fantasy assets this season, currently sitting as the WR8 on the year. Of course, all of that has been with Jacoby Brissett at QB.

Both Andy & Jason are going to “Die” on this prediction. The Big Shimmy worries that we aren’t sure which receiving option He Who Must Not Be Named will target, so there’s a bigger layer of risk involved than just playing Amari Cooper. I’ll join the Ballers here solely based on the fact that Amari Cooper has stunk in all four true road games the Browns have played this season. In those four games, Cooper is averaging 4.6 points and a weekly ranking of WR69.

Tyler Lockett (SEA) at LA Rams: To Score a TD

Mr. Hot Lockett has been on quite a tear for fantasy managers this season, finishing as WR21 or higher in 45% of  Seattle’s games. Lockett has six TDs in the Seahawks’ last seven games and is currently riding a four-game TD streak.

Andy looked into his TD crystal ball and did not see a TD for Lockett this week, so Jason followed suit and both decided to “Die” on this prediction.

I’ll take the “Ride” with Lockett getting into the end zone. The Rams’ defense has given up five passing TDs in their last three games, while the Seahawks continue to throw the ball 30+ times in each of their last four games.

Kurt’s Bonus Picks

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) vs Buffalo: 100+ Total Yards

Rhamondre Stevenson has been nothing but an elite RB option for fantasy managers this season since taking over a true lead role in this Patriots offense. Since Week 3, Stevenson hasn’t finished outside the top 24 and has been inside the top 16 eight times. Sitting as the current RB11 on the season, Stevenson may be the mid-round RB grab that wins teams championships in a few weeks.

Hitting the total 100-yard mark for Stevenson will depend on how much work he gets in the passing game. Through 11 games, Stevenson has only topped 100 total yards four times this season. The Bills have given up more defensively than we’re used to over the last month. In fact, Buffalo has allowed an opposing RB to top 100 total yards twice in their last five games.

I’ll “Ride” with Stevenson on this prediction.

A.J Brown (PHI) vs Tennessee: To Score a TD

A little revenge narrative for A.J. Brown in Week 13 as he takes on his former team. Brown has hit a cold streak after finishing inside the top 24 WRs six times in his first eight games. Over the last three weeks, Brown hasn’t been inside the top 30, despite catching a TD in Week 12. Part of the reason that Brown’s production has been lackluster is due to the lack of targets coming his direction. Brown saw seven or more targets in each of the Eagles’ first eight games, but hasn’t seen that many balls come his way in a given week since.

Tennessee’s defense presents an opportunity for Brown to get back on track, mainly due to their ability to stop the run consistently. The weeks that Brown hasn’t been a great fantasy option are the weeks the Eagles lean on the running game. When you add in the narrative that Brown will want to prove to Tennessee they should have just paid to keep him in Nashville, I think there will be extra motivation for Philadelphia to get him the ball.

Brown is a “Ride” for me this week.

Deshaun Watson (CLE) at Houston: Top-12 QB Finish

It may be a little bit icky, but Deshaun Watson is an intriguing fantasy option based on the offensive weapons that are set up around him in Cleveland. Despite not playing in nearly two full seasons, Watson walks into an offense that is 5th in the NFL in rushing yards per game and has a proper lead WR who’s playing great in Amari Cooper. All in all, things should be set up for Watson to succeed quickly if he’s anything like what we remember from his 2018, 2019, and 2020 QB5 finishes.

Despite the optics, Houston’s defense is a really tough matchup for fantasy QBs. The Texans have only allowed two QBs to finish inside the top 12 on a given week and have an average QB fantasy finish of QB16. For fantasy managers who’ve held Watson this long, I think waiting another week will be worth it.

I’ll “Die” on this prediction.