Rangers vs. Lightning Game 6 NHL Picks: Tampa Bay Looks to Close Out Series at Home

It’s do-or-die time for the New York Rangers as they travel to Amalie Arena to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Final on Saturday night. Read on for our Rangers-Lightning picks and predictions.

After the Rangers and Lightning each won their first two games at home, Tampa Bay bucked the trend on Thursday night, stealing Game 5 at Madison Square Garden. Mikhail Sergachev notched a goal and an assist, and Andrei Vasilevskiy made 24 saves to secure a 3-1 win. The victory gave the Lightning a 3-2 series lead with a chance to close it out at home on Saturday night.

Can Tampa Bay book its third straight ticket to the Stanley Cup Final? Or will the Rangers live to play another day?

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s Eastern Conference Final showdown between the Rangers and Lightning (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Rangers vs. Lightning Game Info

Date: Saturday, June 11, 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBC, Sportsnet, ESPN, TVAS
Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL

Rangers vs. Lightning Odds Analysis

With the lion’s share of the cash coming in on the Lightning, the -175 opening line has moved slightly to -190 over at DraftKings. Those looking to back the desperate underdogs can grab the Rangers as high as +160.

The goal total is set at 5.5, with the Over paying out at +125, while the Under will net you -145. Four of the five games have hit the Under, so there’s definite value in backing a low-scoring affair.

Rangers vs. Lightning Picks

• Lightning (-190 via DraftKings) ★★★★
• Under 5.5 (-145 via Caesars) ★★★★
• Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 shots (+110 via FanDuel) ★★★★

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Rangers vs. Lightning Predictions

Lightning (-180)

The Rangers left the door open a crack, and the Lightning kicked it off the hinges. Gone is the seemingly fragile Tampa team that struggled through the first two games in New York, as it's been replaced by the battle-hardened squad that hoisted Lord Stanley’s Cup the past two seasons.

The Lightning have been the better team at five-on-five, posting a 55.17 Corsi for percentage and 60.31 expected goals-for percentage. In fact, the Lightning have outplayed the Rangers in all situations, registering a 60.43 expected goals-for percentage and 53.85 Corsi for percentage.

Of course, the back-to-back champs can always be completely thwarted by a Herculean effort from Igor Shesterkin, but he’s been great thus far, and Tampa is still on the precipice of another trip to the finals.

I expect the Lightning to close this series out at home, where they’ve racked up a beastly 33-9-6 record between the regular season and playoffs.

Under 5.5 (-145)

This series hasn’t taken too many trips to the red-light district. The two teams have combined for 5.4 goals per game and topped the five-goal plateau just once through five games. In fact, since teaming up to find the back of the net eight times in Game 1, they’ve scored only 19 total goals (4.75 per game).

It doesn’t hurt that Shesterkin has rebooted brick-wall mode, boasting a .933 save percentage and 2.81 goals-saved above average during the series. Vasilevskiy hasn’t been a world-beater for Tampa, but he’s been solid between the pipes, posting a .914 save percentage and 0.29 goals-saved above average.

We’ll likely see another close, low-scoring game with the series on the line.

Kucherov Over 3.5 shots (+110)

Kucherov is tattooing goaltenders with frozen rubber this postseason. The Russian sniper is averaging 4.2 shots per game against the Rangers and has launched four-plus shots on goal three times in five games. With his knack for consistently opening up an impromptu shooting gallery, I expect Kucherov to direct at least four shots on goal in a potential series-clinching game.

Where to Bet on Rangers-Lightning Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Rangers-Lightning picks made on 6/11/2022 at 7:48 a.m. ET.

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