Dean Kremer and Robbie Ray have both been in a groove of late, but can the pitchers keep it going to support their respective sides in this battle of sluggish American League foes? Check out our Orioles-Mariners picks.
The Baltimore Orioles are suddenly red-hot and are coming off a comfortable win in Seattle against the Mariners on Monday night. Baltimore will look to continue to climb up the AL wild-card standings with another strong performance on Tuesday.
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday’s game between the Orioles and Mariners (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Orioles vs. Mariners Game Info
Date: Tuesday, June 28, 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: Root Sports Northwest, MASN2, MLB Network
Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Weather: Indoors
Orioles vs. Mariners Odds
Orioles vs. Mariners Odds Analysis
The Mariners opened at -164 on the Moneyline and haven’t moved much at DraftKings, with the Orioles at +140. Around 64% of the cash wagered has gone on the underdog Orioles.
The total is set at 7.5 runs after a 9-2 Baltimore win on Monday. The public seems to believe another high-scoring affair could be in order, with 71% of the money wagered going to the Over. That’s in slight contrast to the tendencies of both clubs, with the Orioles at 34-39-2 on Overs and the Mariners at 35-38-2 on Overs.
Orioles vs. Mariners Projected Pitchers
Dean Kremer (2-1, 1.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs. Robbie Ray (6-6, 4.07 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)
Kremer has enjoyed some recent success in his third big-league season, posting 11 2/3 scoreless innings in his last two starts and allowing just one earned run over his last three starts (16 2/3 innings). His career numbers aren’t nearly as strong, suggesting he may be due for some regression.
Ray has allowed only 10 hits and two runs over his last three starts, lowering his ERA from 4.97 to 4.07 over that span. Several Orioles hitters, though, have tremendous career numbers against Ray, including Austin Hays (1.639 OPS, 12 plate appearances), Cedric Mullins (1.555 OPS, 9 PAs), and Ryan Mountcastle (1.067 OPS, 10 PAs).
Orioles vs. Mariners Picks
- Moneyline: Orioles (+140) ★★★★
- Run line: Orioles +1.5 (-145) ★★★★
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) ★★★★
- Player prop: Robbie Ray: Over 1.5 walks (+115) ★★★★
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Orioles vs. Mariners ML Pick
Orioles (+140)
The O’s have been rolling, and Mariners hitters don’t have much experience against the 26-year-old Kremer, which should be an advantage for the pitcher. Still, Kremer has been rather lucky recently considering his elevated WHIP.
When your ERA is nearly even to your WHIP, regression is likely. Even if it comes for Kremer in this matchup, though, the Orioles' lineup has a strong track record against Ray. That should aid in their ability to pull off this outright upset.
Orioles vs. Mariners RL Pick
Orioles +1.5 (-145)
If we like Baltimore outright, the run line is even more attractive. With the youth infusion arriving, the Orioles have won 11 of their last 16 games, losing by multiple runs only twice during that lengthy span.
Orioles vs. Mariners O/U Pick
Over 7.5 (-110)
Though I like Kremer to do enough to allow for a Baltimore win, I don’t think he carries his sub-2.00 ERA out of T-Mobile Park on Tuesday. With the baserunners he permits, some scoring is likely.
Where this game finds its legs Over the total is the history of the Orioles’ primary against Ray carrying over. Though Ray’s big arm often produces strikeouts in bunches, he’s susceptible to crooked numbers in the run column, too.
Orioles vs. Mariners Prop Bet
Ray Over 1.5 walks (+115)
Ray is averaging just over three walks per nine innings this season. As last year’s AL leader in innings pitched, he also tends to pitch relatively deep into games. Given the success several Baltimore hitters have had against him, Ray may get caught being too careful with these hitters. That should lead to at least a pair of walks allowed Tuesday.
Where to Bet on Orioles vs. Mariners Picks
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Orioles-Mariners picks made 6/28/2022 at 1:41 p.m. ET.
The post Orioles vs. Mariners MLB Picks: Can Both Starting Pitchers Keep Momentum? appeared first on Picks.
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