Orioles vs. Mariners MLB Picks: Back Baltimore to Stay Hot on the Road

The road team has some excellent value in Seattle as the Baltimore Orioles take on the Mariners. Here are our Orioles-Mariners picks.

Believe it or not, the Orioles and Mariners are two of the hottest teams in baseball. Baltimore has four wins in five games while Seattle has won five of six. Despite both teams showing something of late, though, the lines are a bit skewed.

Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Monday’s game between the Orioles and Mariners (odds via Bet365, FanDuel Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Orioles vs. Mariners Game Info

Date: Monday, June 27, 10:10 p.m. ET
TV: Root Sports Northwest, MASN2, MLB Network
Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Weather: Indoors

Orioles vs. Mariners Odds

Orioles vs. Mariners Odds Analysis

Baltimore is a hot ticket, garnering 54% of the run line tickets and 60% of the run line handle over at DraftKings. Though they don't command as much on the Moneyline, the Orioles have still been taken on 39% of Moneyline bets and account for 45% of Moneyline handle.

It’s been one-way traffic on the total, with 72% of the bets and 76% of the handle on the Over 7.5. That’s pushed the number up to eight at a few books, including FanDuel.

Orioles vs. Mariners Projected Pitchers

Tyler Wells (5-4, 3.34 ERA) vs. George Kirby (2-2, 3.12 ERA)

Wells has done nothing but impress in his second big-league season. He owns a 3.34 ERA in 14 starts, lasting 64 2/3 innings in total. His strikeout rate is low at 15.3%, but he’s managed to pitch to contact excellently.

Kirby has done well to live up to the considerable hype around him entering his first big-league season. He's posted a solid ERA with a low 3% walk rate in nine starts and enters this one off of six shutout innings against the Oakland Athletics.

Orioles vs. Mariners Picks

• Moneyline: Orioles (+135 via Bet365) ★★★★★
• Over/Under: Under 8 (-112 via FanDuel) ★★★★
• Prop bet: George Kirby Under 0.5 walks (+130 via DraftKings) ★★★★

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Orioles vs. Mariners ML Pick

Orioles (+135)

To me, this line is a bit out of control. I know Kirby has been good, but his numbers would indicate he hasn’t been that good.

There’s the obvious 3.84 xERA which jives with his 3.12 ERA, but I’m not even talking about that. In fact, that’s a much better expected ERA than I’d anticipate. Kirby has struck out 23.3% of batters, which is barely above league average, and he owns a 43.2% hard-hit rate with a .408 xwOBA on contact. The latter two are not too becoming of a guy who pitches to contact, nor is a 10.1% barrel rate.

Baltimore has been solid this year with a 40.2% hard-hit rate, which ranks eighth, and an 8.4% barrel rate, which has the Orioles in the top 10. Anyone with contact issues is going to be a tough sell, especially at this price.

Orioles vs. Mariners O/U Pick (-112)

Under 8 (-112)

The Over has been a popular bet, but I’m not sold on the Mariners' offense. For all we just said about the Orioles’ ability to square up the ball, the Mariners are just 14th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and way down in last place with a 30.6% hard-hit rate on top of a mediocre 7.6% barrel rate.

Given those numbers and a borderline bottom-10 strikeout rate, you’d think the Mariners would be playing a lot worse over the last two weeks. They’re certainly not hitting the ball well enough to get to Wells, who has posted an excellent .346 xwOBA on contact and who has walked only 6.1% of hitters.

Seattle’s double-digit walk rate over the last two weeks would indicate it is very reliant on the free pass to generate offense, and I think this is going to be a tough night at the plate for Seattle. That should bring us Under.

Orioles vs. Mariners Prop Bet

Kirby under 0.5 walks (+130)

It’s true that Kirby may run into some issues, but he has been excellent at commanding the zone this year. While he has only gone three of his nine outings without issuing a walk, this is an Orioles team that has walked in fewer than 6% of its plate appearances over the last two weeks.

On top of this, a 7.3% walk rate for the season is nothing to be scared of. This is a diamond in the rough, and I think you’ll be very happy to take advantage of these plus odds. The Orioles will be swing happy here.

Where to Bet on Orioles vs. Mariners Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Orioles-Mariners picks made 6/27/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.

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