Opening NFL Week 15 betting lines, odds and spreads in Early Birds with Jared Smith

Week 15 of the NFL season is approaching, so it’s time to look ahead to the opening betting lines, odds and spreads. Our lead betting analyst Jared Smith offers insights into the lines and early betting takeaways for this week’s games.

Stock up: Lions vs Jets

This line opened Jets -3 on the lookahead last week and was one of the biggest movers at reopening after the dust settled on Sunday. The Lions looked legit beating the first-place Vikings by 2 scores and cashing our best bet of the week. Detroit’s offense had the 2nd highest EPA/play of any team so far this week and Jared Goff continues to look in sync with OC Ben Johnson. Goff hasn’t thrown a pick in 5 straight games and Detroit is averaging 32.2 points during that stretch.

Mike White took a beating in Buffalo and even spent some time in a nearby hospital after the game before eventually being cleared and traveling home with the team. Joe Flacco looked completely overwhelmed in relief, and would be a big downgrade if White can’t go. Robert Saleh’s defense showed fight against a talented Bills offense and held Josh Allen to just a 39.5% success rate on dropbacks. They will be challenged again this week against a Detroit offense that gained 6.7 yards per play against the Vikings on Sunday.

Market prediction: Mike White’s rib injury will be the catalyst here. If he trends in a positive direction, I can see this line pushing back slightly toward the Jets. If White can’t go, the Lions will likely close the favorite. White showed his toughness by returning to the game on Sunday, so I expect him to play if it’s just a matter of pain management. Keep a very close eye on the news out of Florham Park this week. 

Sell High: Ravens vs Browns

Baltimore was featured in last week’s “buy low” category, and now we’re hitting the sell button. Your luck can change that quickly in the NFL. Tyler Huntley was concussed in Sunday’s win over the Steelers and Anthony Brown did just enough to hold on for a slim 2-point win. The concussion protocol has been tricky since the Tua Tagovailoa situation earlier this season and it’s not a sure thing that Huntley suits up this week.

Deshaun Watson looked a little more like himself with a 51% success rate on dropbacks and I expect the Browns’ offense to get marginally better each week as Watson gets more comfortable. I was surprised to see the Steelers’ offense have so much success moving the ball against a stout Ravens defense, gaining 6.2 yards per play. It didn’t show up on the scoreboard due to 3 Pittsburgh interceptions in plus-territory, but I can see Cleveland’s offense having similar success down-to-down this week.

Market prediction: Cleveland opened as a 3-point favorite last week and the line didn’t budge at reopening on Sunday. If Huntley doesn’t make it through concussion protocol this week then this line will likely through that key number of 3 toward the Browns. If you’re willing to play concussion roulette and bet on Huntley playing, you’re likely to get some CLV (closing line value) on Ravens +3. 

Free Fall: Buccaneers vs Bengals

This line has moved a full 8 points from this summer when the Bucs opened as 5-point favorites at home. The Bengals reopened as 3-point road favorites on Sunday, which is also significant since the lookahead was -2.5 last week.

Cincinnati finished top 10 in EPA/play on both offense and defense and Joe Burrow finally got his first win over the Browns. The news wasn’t all good for the defending AFC champs, as they lost Trey Hendrickson to a broken wrist. Even without Hendrickson, DC Lou Annarumo is having one of his best seasons calling plays for the stop unit.

The Bucs got absolutely obliterated by Brock Purdy and the Niners in what turned out to be a double-edged sword. First of all, that game showed some serious flaws in a Bucs defense that is squarely outside the top 20 both pass rush and run-stop win rate. Secondly, what’s wrong with Tom Brady? Suddenly he looks his age, and the offense has failed to score more than 17 points in 3 straight games.

Market prediction: Considering how bad Tampa Bay looked on Sunday there’s really only one way for this line to move. Burrow and Brady seem to be trending in completely opposite directions and I doubt there will be a lot of love for the Bucs in the market this week.

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