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Odds and Predictions for Which MLB Manager Will Be Fired Next

June 16, 2022
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We are barely two months into the 2022 Major League Baseball season, yet two teams have already fired their managers. The Philadelphia Phillies fired manager Joe Girardi after a dismal 22-29 start back on June 3rd. The Los Angeles Angels did the same with Joe Maddon four days later in the midst of a massive 14-game losing streak.

The Phillies subsequently won nine straight games immediately following Girardi’s dismissal, while the Angels’ results have been more mixed since they replaced Maddon with Phil Nevin.

There is already plenty of speculation with regard to which manager will be fired next. MLB betting sites favor the White Sox’ Tony La Russa, who has recently come under fire as a result of a few questionable in-game decisions. However, the Hall-of-Famer is far from the only big-league skipper currently sitting on the hot seat.

Next MLB manager fired odds can’t be found everywhere, but the good folks over at BetOnline have you covered.

Which MLB Manager Will Be Fired Next?

  • Tony La Russa (+400)
  • Dave Martinez (+500)
  • Scott Servais (+550)
  • Mike Matheny (+600)
  • David Bell (+800)
  • Don Mattingly (+800)
  • Mark Kotsay (+1000)
  • David Ross (+1200)
  • Chris Woodward (+1600)
  • AJ Hinch (+1800)
  • Brandon Hyde (+2000)
  • Derek Shelton (+2200)
  • Bud Black (+2500)

Tony La Russa (+400)

The White Sox’ decision to hire Tony La Russa before the 2021 season raised plenty of eyebrows. Now 77 years old, most believed TLR’s time in the manager’s chair had already passed. A full 10 years had elapsed between La Russa’s final year with the Cardinals and his first year back in Chicago.

The White Sox won 95 games and cruised to an AL Central title in La Russa’s first year, but they ran largely unopposed in an awful division in which no other team finished above .500. It’s been a different story so far this year, however. Chicago is a disappointing 29-31 as of this writing and third in the division, trailing Minnesota and Cleveland.

We know White Sox fans want to see Tony La Russa fired. Over the weekend, audible “Fire Tony!” chants could be heard emanating from the stands at Guaranteed Rate Field. This came just days after La Russa’s highly-curious decision to intentionally walk the Dodgers’ Trea Turner despite a 1-2 count. The next hitter, Max Muncy, proceeded to hit a three-run home run.

The White Sox’ roster hasn’t changed much. While they have dealt with a few important injuries, the team has still vastly underperformed compared to expectations. This was supposed to be the year Chicago established itself as a legitimate World Series contender. If the season ended today, La Russa’s White Sox wouldn’t even qualify for one of the three AL Wild Card spots.

La Russa’s +400 next manager fired odds do offer some upside, but it’s worth wondering whether team owner Jerry Reinsdorf will actually pull the trigger. The two men have reportedly been close friends for years, and Reinsdorf apparently felt guilty about firing La Russa after his first stint with the White Sox back in 1986.

Dave Martinez (+500)

Winning a World Series typically gives a manager a longer leash. Dave Martinez led the Nationals to the franchise’s first-ever title back in 2019 in a rather unexpected fashion. Washington snuck into the playoffs as a Wild Card before pulling off shocking upset wins over the Brewers, Nationals, Cardinals, and Astros in that postseason.

Things have gone south for the franchise ever since, however. Max Scherzer, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Hudson, and several other key cogs in the title team are gone. Stephen Strasburg has started just eight games in three years since signing a massive seven-year, $245 million deal after that World Series season. With the exception of megastar Juan Soto, there isn’t much going for the Nationals these days.

Washington was a seller at last year’s trade deadline, and one would imagine they’ll be sellers again this summer. There are even rumors about Soto’s potential availability, though the team’s brass has publicly shot those down. Martinez’s Nationals are just 23-41 on the year and seven games behind the fourth-place Marlins in the NL East.

The Nats aren’t necessarily trying to win this season, which would make firing Martinez in the middle of the campaign a questionable call. At the very least, they probably owe it to their World Series-winning manager to let him see out the rest of the term before determining whether to go in a different direction heading into 2023.

Scott Servais (+550)

The Seattle Mariners have not done much winning over the last 21 years. The team hasn’t even qualified for the playoffs since winning a league-record 116 games back in 2001. Seattle’s front office has been aggressively trying to build the team into a winner over the past few seasons, but the results haven’t come to pass.

The M’s added Robbie Ray, Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker, and Adam Frazier to the mix this past winter after a promising 90-72 season a year ago. Things got off to a decent start with an 11-6 showing through 17 games, but the season has taken a turn for the worse ever since. Seattle is just 17-28 since, and they’ve fallen to fourth place in the AL West behind Houston, Texas, and Los Angeles.

Scott Servais has been in the Mariners’ managerial post since 2016, which actually makes him the longest-tenured skipper in the AL West. The team announced last September that he had been rewarded with a multi-year contract extension, which would make firing him now look rather awkward.

Servais’ +550 next manager fired odds are quite appealing, however. This team just can’t seem to get out of its own way. I certainly don’t think Servais is to blame, but, at some point, the Mariners are going to have to shake something up. Typically, the manager is the one that absorbs most of the blame.

Mike Matheny (+600)

There’s no telling what the Royals’ front office had in mind coming into the 2022 campaign. Their decision to hire Mike Matheny in 2020 following his tumultuous stint in the same job in St. Louis was a questionable one. Since winning the World Series in 2015, Kansas City has not enjoyed a winning season.

There are a few intriguing youngsters on the Royals’ roster, but a 20-41 record means this team will likely be selling by the time the trade deadline rolls around. Their status as a last-place club in a division that also features the Detroit Tigers is pretty embarrassing. Most of the Royals’ problems are in the pitching department, and that’s not likely to turn around any time soon.

Because we don’t really know what the team’s front office had in mind with regard to expectations prior to the season, it’s hard to say whether Matheny’s job is definitively at risk. The team certainly hasn’t made any strides in his two-plus years in town, but they’re also firmly entrenched in the middle of a rebuild. I’ll pass on Matheny’s +600 next manager fired odds, for now.

David Bell (+800)

The Reds won 83 games last year and quietly finished above .500, yet the team’s brass decided they weren’t actually trending in the right direction. Cincinnati hosted a fire sale over the winter that resulted in all of Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos, Wade Miley, Sonny Gray, and Amir Garrett skipping town.

What was left was Joey Votto, Jonathan India, and a largely dreadful major-league roster. Cincinnati got off to a predictably awful 3-22 start, though they have played more respectable baseball ever since. Regardless, the Reds are still 23-39 and alone in last place in the NL Central as of this writing.

Manager David Bell certainly isn’t to blame for the team’s collapse. Cincinnati has been a respectable club since he was hired in 2019, and the roster with which he’s now stuck just isn’t good enough. No manager would be able to mold this team into a winner, so Bell presumably isn’t in any real danger, as of now.

Fade Bell’s +800 next manager fired odds.

Don Mattingly (+800)

The Marlins seem to be a team on the rise. There is all sorts of up-and-coming pitching talent waiting in the wings, and Miami added a few veteran pieces to the puzzle this past winter. The Marlins are still only fourth in the vaunted NL East at 28-32, but this squad is trending in the right direction.

Things would have to go terribly wrong in a hurry for manager Don Mattingly to be fired any time soon. Barring an Angels-style collapse, Mattingly looks safe, for now.

Mark Kotsay (+1000)

As is the case with several other managers on the list, Oakland’s Mark Kotsay doesn’t look like a very good bet to be shown the door. The A’s were another team that blew it up this offseason, with Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Mark Canha all having left for greener pastures. Even longtime manager Bob Melvin bolted to take the vacant gig in San Diego.

Kotsay was hired to oversee yet another rebuilding project in the East Bay. This team is dismal at 21-42, but they were always going to be dismal given the talent and youth on the roster. Kotsay isn’t going anywhere.

David Ross (+1200)

Speaking of fire sales, the Cubs held their own last year when Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez were traded ahead of the deadline. Those players were at the heart of the Cubs’ memorable 2016 World Series run, yet Chicago ultimately decided against signing any of them to long-term deals.

David Ross, another member of the title-winning team, has been on the job since 2020. Chicago hasn’t done a whole lot of winning since he was hired, but he also hasn’t been put in the best position. Don’t be surprised if the fire sale continues this year with the likes of Willson Contreras, Kyle Hendricks, and others potentially on the trade block.

If you want to bet on the next manager fired, the other Chicago-based skipper is the better choice.

Chris Woodward (+1600)

The Rangers haven’t had a winning season since 2016, though it’s hard to blame manager Chris Woodward for that. This past offseason was the first in which the team’s ownership showed any sort of willingness to spend money. And spend they did, with the likes of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray all agreeing to big-money deals to come to Arlington.

So far, the results have been mixed. Texas is currently second in the AL West behind Houston, but their 29-32 record leaves plenty to be desired. The team is starting to turn things around, but punching a playoff ticket in 2022 was always going to be a tall order.

Woodward’s +1600 next manager fired odds do offer upside, but this MLB prop bet isn’t all that likely to cash.

AJ Hinch (+1800)

The Tigers’ decision to hire AJ Hinch prior to last season came with plenty of controversy following Hinch’s role in the Astros’ infamous sign-stealing scandal. However, Detroit has been among the worst teams in the American League for the better part of a decade now, and Hinch did enjoy tons of success during his stint in Houston.

The Tigers actually came into 2022 with some expectations after adding the likes of Javier Baez, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Austin Meadows this offseason. Unfortunately, those moves haven’t panned out. Meadows, after slugging 27 home runs last season for the Rays, is still searching for his first with the Tigers. Baez is hitting .188. Rodriguez will be sidelined indefinitely due to a personal issue.

Detroit’s 24-37 record has them fourth in the AL Central, and a playoff appearance looks less likely by the day. I just seriously doubt the Tigers would hire a manager with Hinch’s track record and give him this short of a leash. Rebuilding a franchise as downtrodden as this one takes time, and Hinch has only been on the job for a little more than a year.

Anything can happen – which makes Hinch’s +1800 next manager fired odds somewhat alluring – but I would be flabbergasted if the Tigers actually dumped him this early in his tenure.

Brandon Hyde (+2000)

The Orioles are yet another rebuilding team just now starting to promote their prospects to the majors. Adley Rutschman made his highly-anticipated MLB debut last month, and more kids are on the way. The O’s have some decent talent in the pipeline, with the highest-ranked farm system in the entire league.

Brandon Hyde is one of the more anonymous managers in the game, but that’s because the Orioles have been terrible for most of his time in town. Hyde is 157-209 since coming to Baltimore in 2019, though their 27-36 mark so far this season isn’t that bad. The team has done a fine job developing its young talent over the past couple of years, and Hyde will presumably get the chance to see it through.

Fade Hyde’s +2000 next manager fired odds.

Derek Shelton (+2200)

Derek Shelton’s Pirates are, essentially, the National League version of Hyde’s Orioles. Pittsburgh hasn’t posted a winning season since 2018, and they haven’t won a playoff game since 2013. The Pirates lost 101 games last year, as well.

The NL Central is pretty terrible this season, which is how the 24-37 Pirates find themselves in a respectable third place. They’re only 1.5 games ahead of Cincinnati for last, however, so a lot can change rather quickly here.

None of this likely has much impact on Shelton’s status as the team’s manager for the foreseeable future. There is nothing to be gained by showing him the door now.

Bud Black (+2500)

The Rockies have been treading water for years, but Bud Black is still among the most respected managers in the game. Colorado lost Nolan Arenado prior to last season and Trevor Story this past offseason, but that didn’t stop the team from deciding to splurge on free-agent Kris Bryant last winter.

Bryant said he believes he can help guide the Rockies back to respectability, but most of his first year in Denver has been marred by injury. Black and the Rockies are just 27-35 so far this year, which is good for last in the improving NL West.

The Rockies are a pretty aimless franchise at this point, and they’ve become known for their head-scratching choices over the past few years. As a result, Black’s +2500 odds to be the next manager fired do offer plenty of upside. I don’t expect him to be canned any time soon, but you never know with this team.

Best MLB Next Manager Fired Bet

As you can see, you’ve got plenty of options at your disposal when it comes to betting on which manager will be fired next. La Russa is a +400 favorite, but his ties to Reinsdorf could help him keep his job…for now.

If you’re not sold on La Russa, Scott Servais at +550 is probably the most logical alternative. The Mariners have been an abject disappointment so far in 2022, and someone will eventually have to take the blame.

I’ll rank my favorite MLB next manager fired bets as follows.

  1. Tony La Russa (+400)
  2. Scott Servais (+550)
  3. Bud Black (+2500)
  4. Mike Matheny (+600)
  5. Dave Martinez (+500)

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