Observations: Phillies’ Ugly Start Sets Tone in Blowout Loss

In a stunning development, the Phillies will not close the season with a 111-0 record under Rob Thomson.

Perhaps this reality comes as a surprise, especially with the way the Phillies had been playing lately. But their perfect surge was due to pause at some point, and Sunday was the day.

Poor defense, a generous group of pitchers that combined to issue 11 walks (and a hit batter), and a quiet lineup that was just 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position led to a thorough 13-1 beatdown that exited the competitive stages by the sixth inning.

In other words, after nine straight games in which the Phillies seemingly fired all on cylinders, all cylinders remained totally quiet throughout their failed bid for a 10th straight win.

It happens, and because it happened Sunday, the Philles will have to wait at least a few more days to take another crack at reaching their high-water mark of two games over .500 this season.

Let’s jump into some observations following what was a total clunker.

Bizarre Defensive Miscues Set Tone

For a nine-game stretch, the Phillies’ typically suspect defense mostly stayed out of its own way.

It did not get out of its own way during a mess of a first inning Sunday, one that set the tone for a mistake-filled loss.

Just how bad was it?

The Diamondbacks put up three runs during a 40-pitch first inning despite recording just one hit and going a collective 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position.

So, yeah, pretty bad.

After Arizona started the game with a walk and single, Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suárez induced a weak grounder to third base.

Instead of simply tagging the lead runner for an easy out, or immediately going to second for a force out (and perhaps an outside shot a double play), Alec Bohm picked option three — none of the above.

He hesitated, passed on the tag, and threw late to second base.

Alec Bohm hesitates and doesn’t record an out pic.twitter.com/uceUetZCub

— Brodes Media (@BrodesMedia) June 12, 2022

Coaches talk all the time about having a plan before the ball is put in play, and it didn’t look like he had one. It seemed like he failed to immediately process the situation and hesitated his way out of a sure-fire out.

His mistake would be compounded two plays later when Arizona’s Pavin Smith hit the 10th pitch of his at-bat back to Suárez .

What appeared to be a potential inning-ending double play turned into a two-run error after J.T. Realmuto somehow failed to handle the throw home.

What should have been an inning ending double play turns into two runs for Arizona pic.twitter.com/Yyk4wkqiWz

— Brodes Media (@BrodesMedia) June 12, 2022

In real time, it looked like Realmuto was caught off guard by the ball coming home and didn’t recover. He looked slow to get in front of plate and out of sorts all the way through the play’s completion.

Whatever the case, it was a truly bizarre sequence and one that obviously can’t happen.

What’s the Word?

Much like his start against Arizona, Ranger Suárez’s season has been hard to describe. Unfulfilling is probably the best word I can find at this point.

For the fourth time in five starts, Suárez failed to complete five innings. He has completed six innings in just four of his first 12 starts.

That’s definitely concerning, although he probably deserved a better fate against the Diamondbacks.

While he began his afternoon by issuing a walk before surrendering a softly hit single to instantly get himself into a jam, he also got those two aforementioned grounders that could have resulted in double plays.

If either play gets made, maybe he has a different afternoon. Maybe he doesn’t use 40 pitches to get the game’s first three outs and we’re talking about how he was able to bear down, find his footing and turn in a quality start.

Such a hypothetical is all fine and well, but Suárez also certainly deserves his share of blame. Following his only start of the season in which he didn’t issue a free pass, he walked four Diamondbacks hitters over just 4 1/3 innings of work.

Suárez’s latest uneven effort continued a troubling big-picture trend. After issuing just 2.80 walks per nine innings a season ago, he’s now up to 3.94 walks per nine innings this season.

Pair his increased walk rate with a diminished strikeout rate, one that has seen a year-over-year decline from 9.08 to 7.43, and there’s at least some reason for concern moving forward.

In fact, a closer look at Suarez’s numbers show some other troubling trends, including slightly diminished velocity Sunday (his sinker and fastball were both down 1.5 mph from season averages) and significantly higher contact rates across all four of his pitches.

Here’s a look at the whiff percentage on each of his pitches over the last two seasons:

• 2021: slider (40.9%), four-seam fastball (22.8%), changeup (40%), sinker (22.8%)
• 2022: slider (27.6%), four-seam fastball (21.6%), changeup (31.9%), sinker (12.9%)

The decreased in whiff rate on the sinker and changeup are most problematic because the two pitch types account for 71.3% of his pitches thrown this season.

Unsurprisingly, he has experienced a significant jump across a number of key stats:

• 2021: 1.36 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .192 BAA
• 2022: 4.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .268 BAA

Welcome Back, At Least For Now

Reliever Jose Alvarado was recalled from Lehigh Valley on Sunday morning. In the seventh inning, he found himself back on the mound at Citizens Bank Park with the Phillies trailing by seven runs.

The task for Alvarado was simple. Just throw strikes.

After allowing a lead-off single, he issued a pair of walks to promptly load the bases.

Following a well-timed double play, it appeared he might dance his way out of trouble, but he then surrendered a two-run single.

Alvarado, who holds an 8.36 ERA this season, threw 17 total pitches. Just eight of those pitches were strikes.

The Phillies were encouraged with Alvarado’s results in four scoreless appearances with the Iron Pigs. He allowed just two baserunners (one hit, one walk) over four innings of work while striking out five.

Those results, however, did not translate during his first appearance back, and after yet another unimpressive performance, it’s worth wondering how much longer the Phillies will keep trotting him out there.

And yeah, you can probably wonder the same about James Norwood, too.

Growing Pains?

One of the big storylines during the Phillies’ recent turnaround has been the team’s youth movement.

Alec Bohm has had some big hits, and more playing time for Bryson Stott has paid big dividends.

Things haven’t gone quite so well for Mickey Moniak.

After an 0-for-4 day that featured three strikeouts, Moniak is 3-for-21 with 10 strikeouts. He’s hitting just .143 with a .393 OPS this season.

Like Stott, perhaps Moniak just needs some more playing time to figure things out, but he has looked completely overmatched in a limited sample.

Probably more relevant is that Stott had entered the spring as an exciting top prospect, while Moniak basically entered camp as an organizational afterthought.

One of Thomson’s challenges in the coming days will be giving Moniak a fair shake while also putting his best lineup on the field. With Odubel Herrea posting a 1.036 OPS this month, it’s hard to argue the best lineup includes Moniak right now.

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