Nuggets vs. Warriors Game 1 NBA Picks: Golden State Starts Title Push

A slight majority of the public bets against the spread are on the underdog Nuggets. Find out who we like with our Nuggets-Warriors picks.

The finale of Saturday’s NBA Playoffs quadruple-header features a Western Conference showdown between the 6-seed Denver Nuggets and 3-seed Golden State Warriors.

In all honesty, the fact that the Nuggets (37-45 ATS, 45-35-2 O/U) even managed to post a winning record this season is truly remarkable. After all, Denver has been playing without star guard Jamal Murray all season long. On top of that, Michael Porter Jr. has also been absent from the lineup for the vast majority of the campaign. The Nuggets still managed to finish sixth in the Western Conference and very nearly usurped Utah for the Northwest Division title down the stretch as well.

While Denver was busy making a run at the division late in the year, the Warriors (41-37-4 ATS, 35-45-2 O/U) found themselves on the defensive. After a torrid start to the season, Golden State hit a mid-season lull and fell back from conference frontrunners Phoenix and Memphis. The Warriors fell so far back, in fact, that they had to win each of their final five games just to beat out Dallas for the 3-seed. Over the course of the full 82-game regular season, injuries led to Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green playing a grand total of 11 minutes together on the floor.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s Western Conference playoff game between the Nuggets and Warriors (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbooks; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Nuggets vs. Warriors Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, April 16, 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Nuggets vs. Warriors Odds

Nuggets vs. Warriors Odds Analysis

The point spread has inched up one full point in the Warriors’ favor. After opening odds favored Golden State by 5.5-points, the Warriors are now laying a consensus line of -6.5. Interestingly enough, the public ATS ticket counts contradict the line move up to this point. Although it is a very slight majority, the Nuggets have attracted 52% of spread bets at the time of writing. Thus, Denver is shaping up as a public underdog ahead of this contest.

While the spread has increased in size, the total has actually shrunk a fair bit. Oddsmakers initially set the total for this game at 225.5. The NBA betting market has lowered the total by 2.5 points to a consensus of 223. Bettors can still find 223.5 available at select sportsbooks.

Nuggets vs. Warriors Picks

• Warriors -6.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ★★
• Under 223.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ★★★★
• Bones Hyland Under 11.5 Points (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★

SEE ALSO: NBA Best Bets for Saturday

Nuggets vs. Warriors Predictions

Warriors -6.5 (-110)

On the surface, it’s easy to see why so many bettors believe that the Nuggets are capable of covering as 6.5-point underdogs tonight. However, the fact that Denver is trending towards being a public underdog only reinforces a bet on the Warriors. Furthermore, the fact that the line has moved a full point against the ticket count is extremely noteworthy.

Make no mistake about it: Nikola Jokic does present a matchup problem for Golden State. The Joker is fully deserving of winning the NBA MVP Award for the second straight season based on how he dragged the Nuggets to a 48-win season. 

The problem for Denver is that, aside from Jokic himself, there is little else on the active roster in terms of reliable offensive playmakers. That issue will only be compounded by the fact that the Warriors are arguably the best defensive team in the NBA. In terms of efficiency numbers, Golden State’s 106.5 points allowed per 100 possessions was second-best in the league.

The fact that the Warriors were able to win five straight down the stretch and maintain the 3-seed is all the more impressive given that they did so without the services of Curry. Well, reports seem to indicate that this will change in Game 1. Curry is expected to be a go after missing the past few weeks with a foot injury. 

While the lack of continuity Golden State has dealt with all season is concerning, the various injuries have afforded other players, such as Jordan Poole, increased opportunities. The Warriors are a much deeper team than Denver, particularly when it comes to offensive capabilities. Betting against Jokic is tough, but the superior team will assert itself at home tonight.

Under 223.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

It’s a bit surprising that the total for tonight’s game has not fallen even lower. Under bettors should make sure to target FanDuel’s line of 223.5 which offers a half-point of value over the majority of sportsbooks in the market.

A huge portion of the rationale to bet the Under stems from the Warriors’ stingy defense. Couple the second-best defensive efficiency with a Nuggets team that is largely a one-trick pony on offense and it’s hard to envision a ton of points being piled up on that end of the floor.

From a tempo standpoint, neither team plays at an extremely fast rate. While the Warriors ranked 15th in pace, Denver averaged less than 100 possessions used per game this season. The fact that the Nuggets rely so heavily on Jokic offensively naturally works to slow down the pace of their games.

Despite this, the Nuggets actually averaged the tenth-most points scored per game this season. This was thanks to the remarkable efficiency of Jokic. Given how solid the Warriors are defensively, one has to imagine that will drop off a bit in this playoff series. 

One final tidbit to note is that two of three regular-season matchups between these teams saw no more than 215 total points scored. One of them was a particularly low-scoring 89-86 Nuggets win back on Dec. 28.

Hyland Under 11.5 Points (-115)

In rookie guard Nah’Shon “Bones” Hyland, the Nuggets have an under-the-radar talent that could develop into an NBA starter down the road. The former VCU standout has seen sporadic playing time throughout the season, undoubtedly benefitting from the absence of Jamal Murray. However, it is difficult to trust that Hyland will garner anything more than his season average of 19 minutes in tonight’s playoff matchup.

Playing time is just one of the concerns that Hyland will face in his quest to exceed tonight’s total of 11.5 points. The Warriors defense figures to have a hand in limiting the offensive output of all Nuggets players this evening

While Hyland actually did get Over 14 points in four of Denver’s final six games, it took a sharp increase in 3-point shot attempts for him to do so. Furthermore, the 17 points he scored in the season finale can be dismissed considering that the Nuggets sat the majority of their starters that night, including Jokic.

Hyland only averaged 10.1 points per game this season. Betting on a rookie to exceed that by nearly two full points in the first playoff game of his career is a recipe for disaster. Given how the NBA betting market is juiced to the Under, it is clear that this is the consensus opinion on the matter.

Where to Bet on Nuggets-Warriors Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Nuggets-Warriors picks made 4/16/2022 at 4:28 p.m. ET.

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