NFL Week 4 Weather Conditions (Fantasy Football)

There are a few problematic games this week with strong winds and rain. Philadelphia looks like the biggest issue with sustained winds in the 18-20 mph range plus rain. The matchup between Buffalo and Baltimore will also be ugly with sustained winds around 15 mph and rain, but I’m not seeing anything quite bad enough to have an impact on fantasy – so far anyways. Be sure to check back in because this article will be updated leading up to kickoff tomorrow.

Updates: 

Chicago Bears at New York Giants
Fantasy Impact: The winds will still be in the 15 mph sustained range, but it doesn’t look like we’ll see rain during the game. No fantasy impact for the weather.

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
Fantasy Impact: We’re bouncing back and forth with the rain. It looks like we’ll see rain for most of the game with some heavy rain coming down towards the end of the game. The quarterbacks in this game are obviously weather-proof, but the severity of the rain combined with 15 mph sustained winds is a hit against all receivers. Hopefully they can accrue fantasy points before the weather becomes prohibitive. Definitely sit Tyler Bass. Justin Tucker is tough to be against, but I’d look for another kicking option.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles
Fantasy Impact: There’s not much of an update here – he writeup still holds up, but winds will be 20 mph sustained for the entirety of the game.

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SUNDAY, OCTOBER 2ND, 2022

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints

9:30 AM ET // Tottenham Hotspur Stadium // London, England

Temp: 64°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 7 mph
Wind Gusts: 13 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

1:00 PM ET // Acrisure Field // Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Temp: 57°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 12 mph
Wind Gusts: 20 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Chicago Bears at New York Giants

1:00 PM ET // MetLife Stadium // East Rutherford, New Jersey

Temp: 52°
Precipitation: Rain
Wind: 17 mph
Wind Gusts: 36 mph

Fantasy Impact: Chicago is having some rough luck with weather so far this season. It’s going to be rainy, windy, and chilly for the entire game likely meaning more of the same for Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet. The only playable player on Chicago is Khalil Herbert.

The Giants also have a one-dimensional offense featuring Saquon Barkley. Aside from Barkley, no receiving options can be trusted with this weather. Daniel Jones‘ legs give him some appeal as a desperate start in superflex leagues.

I can’t imagine you have kickers from either of these teams, but find another option if you do.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles

1:00 PM ET // Lincoln Financial Field // Philadelphia,  Pennsylvania

Temp: 57°
Precipitation: Rain
Wind: 18 mph
Wind Gusts: 36 mph

Fantasy Impact: Winds are right at that point where they start to have a noticeable effect on passing. Jalen Hurts still offers a ton of fantasy value because of his rushing upside. He’s still a start along with A.J. Brown who is just too good to get tricky and sit even with the weather this bad. Devonta Smith is probably the biggest downgrade in this game where his deep targets are likely off the table.

It is going to be interesting to see how Trevor Lawrence handles the weather. Lawrence throws deep at a below-average clip so the weather may not completely torch his fantasy day, but he’s a risky start even in superflex leagues on the road in poor weather and facing a very good Eagles defense. As Lawrence goes, so does Christian Kirk. Kirk has been Lawrence’s favorite target and still see enough targets to justify a flex play. Travis Etienne may see a few more targets if pushing the ball downfield becomes difficult and it doesn’t hurt that the game script is likely to force Lawrence to throw but James Robinson should continue to get the bulk of the carries. No other receiving options should be trusted for the Jaguars.

UPDATE: The total of this game has dropped from 47 to 43.5.

Not optimal. #Eagles #Jaguars pic.twitter.com/6o35whw3p0

— John McMullen (@JFMcMullen) October 2, 2022

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens

1:00 PM ET // M&T Bank Stadium // Baltimore, Maryland

Temp: 55°
Precipitation: Rain
Wind: 15 mph
Wind Gusts: Up to 35 mph

Fantasy Impact: Similar to the JAX/PHI game, the rain and wind gusts might be a factor here. Expect remnants of Hurricane Ian to drench parts of the East Coast including Baltimore.

You’re starting all your major Buffalo pieces such as Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. On Baltimore, Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews are slam dunks. Temper some of your expectations. Per our own Matt DiSorbo who looked at weather trends over the last seven years, “Rain clearly has a negative effect on the passing game. When it’s raining, completion percentage goes down by nearly 3%, total game passing production falls by 45 yards, and .6 fewer passing touchdowns are thrown. In these conditions, teams attempt about two fewer passes per game (each).” You’re starting your studs but realizing the high-end outcomes might be out of reach this week.

However, with Gabriel Davis’ nagging injury woes, this is a potential tie-breaker between other options in our Start/Sit Tool. Rashod Bateman is a big-play threat. He’s in FLEX territory despite the wind concerns. The RBs might be leaned on a bit more but both are way outside the Footballers’ top-24 options this week.

Here’s a closer look at your game day forecast @BuffaloBills @ @Ravens in Baltimore. It is not ideal football weather. Expect clouds, showers, and gusts upwards of 35mph. #BillsMafia #GoBills pic.twitter.com/cbCFMLfRAa

— Mike Doyle (@wx_MikeDoyle) October 2, 2022

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

4:05 PM ET // Bank of America Stadium // Charlotte, North Carolina

Temp: 66°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 12 mph
Wind Gusts: 16 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers

4:25 PM ET // Lambeau Field // Green Bay, Wisconsin

Temp: 61°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 8 mph
Wind Gusts: 8 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8:20 PM ET // Raymond James Stadium // Tampa, Florida

Temp: 75°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 7 mph
Wind Gusts: 14 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

MONDAY, OCTOBER 3RD, 2022

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

8:15 PM ET // Levi’s Stadium // Santa Clara, California

Temp: 64°
Precipitation: None
Wind: 9 mph
Wind Gusts: 12 mph

Fantasy Impact: None

DOME GAMES

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions

1:00 PM ET // Ford Field // Detroit, Michigan

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

1:00 PM ET //  Lucas Oil Stadium // Indianapolis, Indiana 

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans

1:00 PM ET // NRG Stadium // Houston, Texas

Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons

1:00 PM ET // Mercedes-Benz Stadium // Atlanta, Georgia

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

1:00 PM ET // AT&T Stadium // Dallas, Texas

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders

4:25 PM ET // Allegiant Stadium // Paradise, Nevada