Welcome into a brand new segment here in the DFS pass – player props! If this is something you’d be interested moving forward in the DFS Pass, shoot me a DM on Twitter and let me know your thoughts. Let’s dive in!
The Super Bowl is the most heavily bet event in the United States, and watching the big game is always a ton of fun if you have a little bit of skin in the game. While the Fantasy Footballers brand isn’t known for betting, player props are the easiest way to gain an edge in sports betting because it is so closely related to fantasy football. When betting player props, you’re analyzing matchups, trends, injuries, etc – just like you do when you’re setting a DFS or a redraft fantasy lineup. Before diving into my favorite player props for Super Bowl LVI between the Los Angeles Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals, let’s take a quick look at general strategy around prop betting.
Prop Betting Strategy
1. Unders hit more than overs.
Based on statistical data, unders on player props hit at about a 55% rate vs. a 45% rate for overs. This is important to note because the general public likes to bet for things to happen rather than against things to happen. There’s nothing better than watching the final drive of a Bengals game knowing you only need 10 more yards for Ja’Marr Chase to hit his receiving yards prop. But, in reality, unders are generally more profitable, and that’s because betting books tend to adjust the lines knowing that the general public will bet the over if given the choice. One major other reason that unders hit at a higher rate is that we simply can’t predict injury. There’s nothing worse than needing one more reception from Will Fuller and boom, he’s out with a hamstring issue.
2. Books don’t adjust quickly enough for injury news.
Most people out there betting big money are primarily betting Vegas sides and totals. As a result, if there’s an injury to a relatively significant player, the book is likely to adjust the spread before adjusting prop lines. As a result, if you’re into player prop betting, it’s really important to monitor injury news. One easy way to do that quickly and efficiently is on Twitter. You can set alerts for whenever Ian Rapoport or Adam Schefter tweet. Now, they do tweet A LOT so I get it if you don’t want all of those notifications, but it can be super helpful, especially in the regular season.
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