Best Sports Picks DFS DFS Pass DFS Pass – Pace of Play Pace of Play Week 6

NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 6 (Fantasy Football)

October 13, 2022
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Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. Over the last three years, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.

Each week I’ll highlight five game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.

A reminder on a simple metric I introduced last year: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.

  • 5– Back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
  • 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
  • 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
  • 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
  • 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals hovering UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.

For Week 6, I’ve split up each team’s implied totals, seconds per play, neutral situation pace, and combined that for a final GPS score.

Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I break down the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.

Normally, I would highlight 4-5 games each week but this slate isn’t one I’m trying to get too cute with. I’ll highlight

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) – O/U: 54

Sec/Play Neutral Sit. Pace Pass Rate Over Exp.
Team Implied Total
Buffalo Bills 7 9 1 28.3
Kansas City Chiefs 21 16 2 25.8

You might be surprised to see BUF/KC at only a 4.5 in our GPS Scores. Obviously, it’s the best of the week and easily two of the best teams in the NFL. They rank 1 & 2 in pass rate over expectation, top-2 inside the red-zone and we all remember their epic AFC divisional game from last year. So why not a perfect 5.0 Kyle? If I had to poke holes, Kansas City does not play nearly as fast as you like. Last year, these two teams met in Week 8 (also in Arrowhead) and KC stumbled with four turnovers despite taking control of the game clock. Tyreek Hill‘s absence has changed the way the offense functions. Mahomes’ propensity to throw deep has slowly gone from a league-leading 16% of his attempts in his MVP year to 26th in the league through five weeks.

Year % 20+ Att. aDOT YPA
2018 15.9% 9.5 8.8
2019 13.0% 8.7 8.3
2020 12.4% 8.9 8.1
2021 10.5% 7.6 7.4
2022 9.5% 7.9 7.4

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To give some context, Mahomes has completed as many 20+ yard pass plays (7) as Mitch Trubisky and only one more than Marcus Mariota or Jacoby Brissett. This is no knock on Mahomes. You could argue he’s been even better (#1 in EPA per passing play) with what he has but that he’s had to evolve with how defenses have attacked him (2 high safeties) and more zone looks league-wide. It is worth noting that Buffalo’s defense ranks #1 in explosive pass rate allowed. If I’m playing Mahomes, the options are a bit dicey outside of Travis Kelce. Marquez Valdes-Scantling finally had some life last week but Juju Smith-Schuster looks completely dusted running routes. I’m personally single-stacking Mahomes and hoping I connect on the right piece. Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran hot the first couple of weeks but inefficiency was always knocking on the door. The Bills are allowing the 2nd highest target success rate to the RB position if there is a chink in their armor.

The magic elixir for last year’s epic playoff matchup was the teams all but abandoning designed runs for the RBs. Kansas City (19 RB attempts) and Buffalo (13) are not committed to establishing it. In fact, 75% of the offensive plays in that game were in the hands of the QB (rush + pass attempts) which is why Josh Allen is such a cheat code. The best part about Buffalo’s passing game is they’ve diversified their approach this year. The screen game is starting to get worked in but the downfield bombs (especially those to Gabe Davis last week) get all the headlines.

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We’re paying up for him in cash but the ceiling you get access to is unreal. Double-stacking was not a plan I used to commit to but at this point, he’s supplying two viable Bills pass-catchers almost every single week. Last week, Davis caught the two long bombs, Diggs quietly went 8/102/1 and Khalil Shakir was the bargain play of the week. With Isaiah McKenzie back in the fold, you just have to give yourself enough combinations in large-field tournaments. Dawson Knox doesn’t look right but did log a limited practice on Wednesday. I’ll discuss Devin Singletary below in the dart throws section and how to handle him.

Stacking Options:

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) – O/U: 51

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Sec/Play Neutral Sit. Pace Pass Rate Over Exp.
Team Implied Total
Arizona Cardinals 10 25 19 28.3
Seattle Seahawks 24 19 17 24

This game is sitting above the 50-point total solely on the shoulders of their porous defenses. Ok, maybe that is a bit overexaggerated as Geno Smith has played lights out and Kyler Murray-led teams always find themselves in great game environments. But both defenses are exploitable with the Seahawks becoming a league punching bag each week. Seattle is allowing the most yards per play, most points per drive, and 2nd most expected points per pass attempt. Arizona isn’t much better on a per-play basis allowing the highest pass success rate and the 2nd most points per drive.

From a pace perspective, there are a couple of routes to consider:

  • Cardinals finally takes the lead– Arizona has been one of the least efficient teams in the first half ranking dead last in EPA per play. They’ve played from behind so much but when they have had the lead in the 2nd half, they’ve been the most run-heavy team in the league. Eno Benjamin ($4600-DK) is the free square this week so you won’t be sneaking up on anyone but you also can avoid the ARI passing game in this scenario. We’ve yet to see him as a pure volume back and the team did sign Ty’Son Williams and Corey Clement as it looks like James Conner might miss. If this game hits the under, Eno + a Seattle pass-catcher makes a ton of sense.
  • Inefficient mess– Only one Cardinals game has hit the over this year but we keep seeing Arizona in these 50+ point games. Despite running the most total plays in the NFL, they rank dead last in explosive pass percentage keeping everything short and ineffective. Seattle will be working in Kenneth Walker behind a patchwork offensive line and a solid Arizona run defense ranked 12th rush DVOA according to Football Outsiders. In Week 11 last year in Seattle, we saw Russell Wilson and the Seahawks stumble their way to a 13-23 loss. If Seattle can’t run the ball effectively to open up play-action, you might be looking at a 40+ point game instead of 50.
  • Back-and-forth– This is what we all want and if you are stacking this game, you can only hope both offenses hum. If you haven’t noticed, Geno Smith has made relatively few mistakes this year ranking 4th in EPA per pass attempt with the highest completion rate over expectation in the league. But it’s not like everything is short. Seattle ranks #1 in explosive pass plays while Arizona’s defense ranks 31st. It is truly a dream matchup for Tyler Lockett who will be chalk city this week.

Nic Antaya/Getty Images

Stacking Options:

Correlation Plays That Make Sense

Instead of trying to give you convince why Zach Wilson on the road in Green Bay or rookie Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins can hold their own against the Vikings, I’ll highlight some simple correlation plays you could consider mixing in tournaments.

Aaron Jones/Allen Lazard + Breece Hall/Garrett Wilson

The Packers rank 30th in rush DVOA and Breece Hall is slowly turning into a megastar. He can do it-all and imagine if the Jets get down how much passing work he could see. On the other hand, the Jets are allowing the highest 3rd down success rate in the NFL and Aaron Jones is always due for an eruption. Normally, we wouldn’t like two RBs in the same game but these two are elite pass-catchers. I also like Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson if you’d prefer looking those directions.

Justin Jefferson/Dalvin Cook + Tyreek Hill

Every week I want Vikings in my lineup. They rank 7th in pass rate over expectation and run 3-wide at the 4th highest rate in the league. The Dolphins pass defense is giving up big plays “left, right, and center” to quote Jason Moore allowing the highest expected points per pass attempt. Tyreek Hill might be nursing an injury but he’s always a candidate to break the slate against a Minnesota team that doesn’t get pressure on the QB. Skylar Thompson may be a rookie but he also could go in full DGAF mode.

Mike Evans (as leverage)

I love Chris Godwin and plan on playing him in cash. But the ceiling outlier-type games usually belong to Evans. I’ll be chasing that in tournaments against a Pittsburgh defense allowing the highest fantasy points to the WR position.

Five Dart Throws to Consider

Note: In order to be considered a “dart throw”, these players MUST come in under five percent in accordance with our Roster Percentage Report.

1.  Betz mentioned this on Tuesday’s podcast but Devin Singletary does his best work in close games.

Just as we saw in Week 3 at Miami, there are scenarios where Singletary is a viable contrarian piece and you get massive leverage on the rest of the field that is stacking Bills. Playing Singletary against a Kansas City defense that ranks 30th in fantasy points to the RB position isn’t crazy.

2. Among the DSTs, I’ll take a shot on the expensive Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They rank #1 in adjusted sack rate and while everyone will want to play their offensive pieces, perhaps this is a week you pay up for the defense and get out of that game.

3. I hate even mentioning their name but the Seattle TEs need to be mentioned. Arizona ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to the TE position and Will Dissly has a penchant for catching TDs in big spots. Noah Fant leads the team in routes run and is a more explosive player. Consider mixing in either with Geno Smith, and Tyler Lockett if you want to game stack.

4. At WR, I want a long bomb from someone. The field will stay away from Pittsburgh options for the most part but perhaps this is the week we get some Kenny Pickett magic. Diontae Johnson is averaging 112 air yards per game but just hasn’t connected on a long bomb. I have him coming in under 5 percent on FanDuel.

5. Why not mention D.J. Moore? No one wants to play him but there is some chemistry with PJ Walker. I’ll take a chance in large field on a cheap WR who is talented.

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