The Golden State Warriors, led by Stephen Curry, are currently considered the favorites to win the NBA Championship. In light of the NBA’s All-Star break, we review the current NBA title odds.
Compared to where they were during the preseason, NBA futures numbers have moved significantly. The Brooklyn Nets were the +225 favorites when BetMGM opened its NBA Championship odds, followed by the Los Angeles Lakers at +450.
Let us fast forward to the NBA All-Star break, when the Nets and Lakers are struggling to make the playoffs. Currently, the Lakers are just a -122 favorite to make the NBA playoffs.
The Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors currently account for 42.6% of the handle in this market at BetMGM, and the Suns are the biggest liability for the sportsbook.
While the NBA prepares for the remaining 20 games of the regular season before the playoffs, we take a look at some team’s current title odds in the futures market.
NBA Title odds at the All-Star Break
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(@BetMGM)
NBA Title Odds as of Feb. 21
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NBA Title Odds Futures Market
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors currently have a record of 42-17 and are the favorite to win the NBA title at every sportsbook, except for Caesars which has the Phoenix Suns as the favorite.
Through 59 games this season, the Warriors are first in the NBA in defensive rating at 104.6. This is the best defensive rating since the Milwaukee Bucks had a rating of 102.5 for the entire 2019-2020 season.
The Warriors are an organization that is not concerned with its regular-season record. Thus, the updated win total on FanDuel is noteworthy. Their win total is posted at 56.5, and I would suggest playing the Under (-106) on this number. FanDuel offers the best price on this futures wager, as the Under is juiced to -125 at PointsBet.
Phoenix Suns
A number of projection models favor the Suns over the Warriors, and Caesars concurs. They are the only sportsbook that currently has the Suns as the favorites to win the NBA Championship.
Over the NBA All-Star break, it was announced that Chris Paul will miss six to eight weeks due to injury. As a result of this timetable, Paul appears to be out for the remainder of the season and will join the Suns just before the playoffs.
In my opinion, the initial reaction would be to look at the Warriors' +650 odds to win the Pacific Division. However, I do not believe there are enough games left for the Warriors to catch the Suns even if they wanted to.
Paul's injury may result in the Suns losing games and deploying load management on other players. If they begin to lose, take advantage of this by shopping for longer NBA title odds on Phoenix.
Brooklyn Nets
With a record of 31-28, the Nets currently occupy the 8th position in the Eastern Conference standings. Due to the fact that the Nets are without Kevin Durant and we have yet to see Ben Simmons play, they cannot be judged by their current statistics.
In terms of their offensive and defensive efficiency, this team has very short title odds for a team with a net rating of just 0.2. This is because their odds are based solely on their potential.
As soon as Durant returns from injury and Simmons joins the Nets, this is a team you will want to evaluate quickly if you intend to purchase their title odds. Quick judgments will be made, and their odds will adjust accordingly.
SEE ALSO: NBA Awards Betting Trends
Milwaukee Bucks
With a record of 36-24 entering the All-Star break, the defending champions trail the Chicago Bulls by 2.5 games in the Central Division. In terms of efficiency on offense, the Bucks have performed a bit worse this season, as their offensive rating has declined from 116.5 to 112.5 compared to last season.
At +700, the Bucks' odds for the NBA title do not excite me, but I do believe they are the rightful favorites in the Central Division. Although the Bulls have a 2.5-game advantage at the All-Star break, I believe the sportsbooks are correct in positioning the Bucks as +110 favorites to win the division.
If you are considering supporting the Bucks for the remainder of the year, I would recommend investing in their Central Division odds at the +110 price point via DraftKings. PointsBet has the Bucks at -105; they were hovering around -120 just before the All-Star break.
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Philadelphia 76ers
In terms of net rating, the Philadelphia 76ers are currently ranked 12th in the NBA at 1.9. We will have to throw out most of the Sixers statistics very soon. This is due to the fact that they will have a brand new lineup thanks to the trade for James Harden.
Once the Sixers acquired Harden from the Brooklyn Nets, the futures market adjusted by moving the Sixers from +1100 to +700 to win the NBA Championship. In the event Harden's experiment is successful, bettors will be tempted to jump all over the +700 odds on the Sixers title odds. I fully understand the willingness of bettors to back the Sixers, but I believe there is another angle at play here.
At PointsBet, the Sixers are available at +400 to finish the regular season as the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. This is something that I believe the Sixers organization will value, as a way to justify acquiring Harden. This is an intriguing number for me, and I feel confident that they will beat the Heat for the top seed.
SEE ALSO: How Does the James Harden Trade Shake Up the NBA Futures Market?
Boston Celtics
Entering the All-Star break, the Celtics are one of the hottest teams in the NBA., and they are doing it on the defensive end of the floor. The Celtics have a defensive efficiency rating of 98.5 and a net rating of 16.6 in their last 15 games. The Phoenix Suns, who have won 14 of their last 15 games, have a net rating of 8.7.
You may be surprised to learn that FiveThirtyEight gives the Celtics a 34% chance of making the NBA Finals. This is the highest percentage among all teams in the Eastern Conference.
The FiveThirtyEight projection indicates that the Celtics should have odds of +194 to win the Eastern Conference. At the present time, this is not the case as you can find the Celtics at DraftKings and FanDuel with odds of +1100 to win the Eastern Conference.
Those of you who have not yet purchased the Celtics odds to win the Eastern Conference should do so immediately. This is the most valuable number among all the team futures currently available during the NBA All-Star break. Markets will adjust to the Celtics' recent performance in the coming weeks, which will shorten their odds.
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