Moritz Seider’s Case as Calder Trophy Favorite: Why He’s a Value Over Raymond, Zegras

While scoring forwards have captured the imagination early, Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider should be under stronger consideration for the NHL’s Calder Trophy.

Player performance naturally tends to fluctuate over the course of an NHL season, and it seems that fluctuation quite notably affects first-year players. There have been some ups and downs for the leaders in the Calder Trophy race and the high-profile forwards at the top are now vulnerable to the rookie defenseman who offers more value across sportsbooks.

Here are the Calder Trophy odds for the top three contenders from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, PointsBet, and Barstool Sportsbook, and my top recommendation.

Calder Trophy Odds (Favorites)

Lucas Raymond, Trevor Zegras, or Moritz Seider?

Lucas Raymond (+250 via FanDuel)

Detroit Red Wings winger Lucas Raymond was +2500 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the Calder Trophy a couple of weeks before the season started. He threatened to leave all rookies in the dust when he tallied 21 points over 22 games to start his NHL career. That established him as an early favorite for the award.

However, Raymond has 11 points through 20 games since returning from the December schedule pause and his overall pace of 39 points in 51 games is on the lower end of the scale for forwards that have won the Calder Trophy.

Recommendation: Pass. There was an opportunity to grab value on Raymond very early in the season but now his value does not accurately reflect how other challengers have gained and even overtaken him for Rookie of the Year.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Treovr Zegras (+250 via FanDuel)

While Raymond was a longshot before training camp, Anaheim Ducks winger Trevor Zegras was a relatively popular option, priced at +550 on FanDuel. He had the second shortest odds behind only Montreal Canadiens winger Cole Caufield. Zegras started slowly, with five points through his first 13 games, but his production improved starting in mid-November and then he captured the imagination of the public with his highlight-reel setup to Sonny Milano in early December.

What an assist from Trevor Zegras to Sonny Milano pic.twitter.com/m5OjTWnNll

— Shayna (@hayyyshayyy) December 8, 2021

Zegras has 33 points in his last 33 games and is just one point behind Raymond in the rookie scoring race, despite playing in five fewer games. Nevertheless, he leads all rookies with 0.83 points per game and if he continues at that rate for 76 games (he has already missed six), that would be a 63-point season.

The last rookie forward to score at a lower rate and still win the Calder Trophy was Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon in 2013-2014.

One factor that probably helped Zegras’ case earlier in the season was that the Anaheim Ducks were surprisingly in a playoff spot, and that added credibility to his points total, but as the Ducks have faded, he loses the perceived edge of how meaningful his production might be. 

Recommendation: Zegras is preferable among the top two forwards but there is not great value to be found at this price.

Moritz Seider (+350 via FanDuel)

Priced at +1200 on DraftKings before the season started, Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider has been steadily reeling in the forwards as the season has progressed. As recently as early February, Seider was +600 on BetMGM but he continues to close the gap.

Not only is Seider tied with Florida Panthers forward for third in scoring among all rookies, with 35 points through 51 games, but he is a rookie defenseman logging 22:51 per game as the best defender on his team.

Moritz Seider: One-Man Penalty Kill pic.twitter.com/8LxT4kR2pL

— NHL (@NHL) February 10, 2022

Recommendation: If choosing one of the favorites for the Calder, Seider is the one offering the best value. His point production is close enough to the top forwards that the rest of his contributions should put him over the top.

Calder Trophy History

In the past 20 years, there have been 13 forwards, four defensemen, and three goaltenders win the Calder Trophy. There has been a tendency for voters to favor a high-scoring forward. That may be a function of the significance of the role that a rookie forward might play relative to a rookie defenseman.

It is also due to this award being voted on and votes are based on the perception of hockey writers who tend to get swayed by point totals. That isn’t going away but as Seider continues to hang near the leading scorers, the argument that a forward has a few more points is not going to hold water.

Eleven of the 13 forwards that have won in the past 20 years recorded more than 0.75 points per game. Zegras (0.83 PPG) and Raymond (0.76 PPG) are at the lower end of that range.

In the past 20 seasons, there have been five seasons in which a defenseman finished among the top four rookie scorers. In two of those seasons (Cale Makar in 2019-20 and Tyler Myers in 2009-10), a defenseman won the Calder Trophy. 

One more factor in Seider’s favor is that he plays a premier role on the Detroit defense. In the past 20 seasons, there have been eight instances in which a rookie defenseman played more than Seider’s 22:51 per game over more than 60 games. Since Myers won the Calder Trophy, the only defenseman to surpass those thresholds was the Dallas Stars’ Miro Heiskanen, in 2018-19. Seider’s rare usage ought to give him the opportunity to take home the Calder Trophy as a defenseman.

Where to Bet on the Calder Trophy

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

The post Moritz Seider's Case as Calder Trophy Favorite: Why He's a Value Over Raymond, Zegras appeared first on Picks.