MLB Tuesday mega parlay (+1820 odds) 8/9: Back the Braves

We continue with the MLB week with a 16-game slate on Tuesday night. Many teams had Monday off which means a lot of series will start today, so what better way to celebrate Tuesday’s massive slate of games than with a four leg mega parlay! Let’s get right into it!

Phillies -1.5 (-108)

Braves -1.5 (+108)

Mariners ML (+116)

Twins/Dodgers alternate total under 7.5 (+122)

Parlay odds: +1820

For this parlay we are going with two favorites on the run line, one underdog on the run line, and one alternate total. Let’s break down each of the four legs one by one.

Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 over Miami Marlins (-108)

As displayed by their outburst against Patrick Corbin and the Nationals, the Phillies smash left-handed pitching. Philadelphia ranks 6th in OPS and 9th in wRC+ against lefty pitching this season, and their offense has never been hotter as they’ve scored 31 runs in their last 3 games. They will face Braxton Garrett of the Marlins, who has had a decent third season, but he hasn’t faced too many tough offenses yet. When he did face solid lefty hitting lineups like the Cardinals or Giants, Garrett got hit hard.

Zack Wheeler at home is a hard spot to ignore. The ace has a 1.58 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP in 62.2 innings at Citizens Bank Park this season. The Phillies have won 11 of Wheeler’s 20 starts this season, and 10 of those wins have come by at least 2 runs. When the Phillies win with Wheeler, it’s usually a big win since Philadelphia has won those 11 starts by an average of 3.81 runs. Back Philadelphia to continue smashing lefties and pick up a multiple-run win.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves -1.5 over Boston Red Sox (+108)

The fact that the Braves run line is plus odds is baffling. They did just lose the series to the Mets and got dominated by Jacob deGrom, but Rich Hill and the Red Sox are a much different level of competition. Boston has lost 4 of their last 5 games and nearly got swept by the Royals as nothing seems to be going right for the Red Sox. J.D. Martinez is 8 for his last 56 (.143), Jarren Duran continues to make the Sportscenter Not Top 10 in center field, and their bullpen has been terrible.

The Braves thrive against left-handed pitching, and they are gifted Rich Hill on Tuesday night. Atlanta ranks 2nd in OPS and 4th in OBP against lefties this season and have a 25-12 record against southpaw starters. Hill has made one start in the last month and allowed 4 runs and 6 hits in 3 innings. He’s completed 6 innings of work just three times this season which leaves a lot of innings for the Boston bullpen to eat, and since the all-star break, the Red Sox arm barn has a 7.15 ERA, the worst in baseball.

Seattle Mariners ML over New York Yankees (+116)

For being paid to be the teams ace, Gerrit Cole has not looked like it. In his last start against the Mariners, he allowed 6 runs and 7 hits in 6 innings. In his outing before that, the Royals scored 5 runs on 7 hits in 6 innings. Cole has been hittable recently, and the Mariners proved that in the Bronx, so I see no reason to pass up another opportunity to buy low on the Yankees. They were just swept by the Cardinals to extend their losing streak to 5 games before Monday night, and the road only gets tougher this week.

Luis Castillo was impressive in his Mariners debut as he allowed only 3 runs and 5 hits in 6.2 innings while also recording 8 strikeouts. That was his second start against the Yankees this season, and he has been dominant in both outings. The New York lineup has faced Castillo for 127 plate appearances and has not found success against the right-hander as they have a .206 batting average and a 25.2% strikeout rate. Castillo gives the Mariners a great chance of winning against the Bronx Bombers, so at plus odds, I’ll back Seattle to complete the upset.

Minnesota Twins/Los Angeles Dodgers alternate total under 7.5 (+122)

It will be a pitcher’s duel in Los Angeles as Joe Ryan will be opposed by Julio Urias. The last time Ryan started in Southern California, the Padres battered the ace for 10 runs on 8 hits, including 5 home runs in 4.2 innings. However, that was only the third time this season he has let up more than three runs in an outing. So as long as Ryan allows 3 runs or less, which has been in 82.3% of starts this season, this game should be low scoring from the first pitch to the last.

After the all-star break, Urias is 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 3 starts after beginning the season with a 2.89 ERA in 96.2 innings. In those three starts, the opposition is 13-for-69 (.188) against the southpaw. These two offenses are powerful, but both teams got the day off on Monday which gives an extra day for the bullpens to rest. This game should be low scoring from the start, so the alternate total under has a lot of value.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Dodgers

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