MLB picks Thursday 9/29: YRFI & NRFI best bets today – Guardians get shut down by Springs

Thursday’s in the MLB generally provide fewer games, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be had. By predicting if a run will be scored in the 1st inning or not, we only have to sweat through 6 quick outs for profit. It’s a great way to isolate a specific part of the game rather than sweating out all 3 hours. Despite the small slate of games, we have broken down the best spots to target for today.

Along with these early plays, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.

Let’s take a closer look at my 2 favorite YRFI/NRFI bets for today.

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Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox: YRFI (-120)

Let’s get things started with a play that came through for us in the opener back on Monday. There were only 4 games going on that day, and we still hit our YRFI play. The hitting conditions at Fenway Park in Boston have been superb, and this series has proven it. 

There were 22 runs scored in each of the first 2 games of the series and a run scored in the 1st inning of all 3 games so far. The Orioles are sending out rookie Mike Baumann to close out the series. After not pitching throughout all of July and August, he has been thrust back into the rotation. He even allowed a 1st-inning run to the Tigers just 10 days ago, and they are the lowest-scoring team in baseball. Now he gets a Boston lineup that boasts some of the league’s top hitters like Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts. 

The Red Sox are welcoming back Nathan Eovaldi even though they essentially have nothing to play for. Although he is supposed to be their top pitcher, he has not proven it this season. He hasn’t pitched in a month and a half, and even when he was healthy the O’s took advantage. Anthony Santander previously drove in Cedric Mullins for a 1st-inning run against Eovaldi, both of whom are still at the top of the lineup. Given all the scoring that’s taken place in this series already, trust the trend to continue on Thursday. 

Be sure to check out our Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox predictions

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians: NRFI (-140)

This is an absolutely ideal situation for an uneventful 1st inning. Right off the bat, conditions are perfect before either pitcher even takes the mound. There will be double-digit winds blowing in at Progressive Field in Cleveland for this game. 

The first pitcher that will do so is Guardians Cal Quantrill. He may not have the name recognition of ace Shane Bieber, but he is more than capable of handling this Rays lineup. It also helps that Tampa will be without all-star 2nd baseman Brandon Lowe. Quantrill hasn’t faced the Rays at all this season, but he has shut down some of the top lineups. That would include the AL-best Astros and Blue Jays in back-to-back starts, and Shohei Ohtani and the Angels just 2 weeks ago. He even kept the league-best Dodgers scoreless in the 1st inning earlier in 2022.

Rays starter Jeffrey Springs has an ideal matchup, himself. There’s no denying that the Guardians have come on strong as of late, which has helped them clinch the AL Central. However, they are terrible against lefties. They have the 4th-lowest OPS against such pitching this year. Springs has proven to be a great addition to the Rays’ rotation, and he has also been even stronger of late. This month alone he has held the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers and Blue Jays (twice) scoreless in the 1st inning. He kept the Guardians scoreless when he faced them earlier this year and should do so again tonight.

Be sure to check out our Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians predictions

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