MLB picks Monday 9/19: YRFI & NRFI best bets today – Edward Cabrera cruises through the Cubs

We went 2-0 yesterday, so let’s make it a profitable start to the week. There’s fewer games today, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be had. Teams are still battling for postseason berths, and we’ve even got a battle of aces up in Milwaukee. If you’re one who prefers not to sweat out a 3-hour long game, then these are the plays for you. By predicting if a run will be scored in the 1st inning or not, we can profit in just about 15 minutes. Despite the smaller slate, we’ve targeted the best spots to boost your bankroll. Along with these early plays, be sure to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.

Let’s take a closer look at my 2 favorite YRFI/NRFI bets for today.

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Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-140)

We’re not starting out with the earliest game of the day, but this is still the first of the evening games. Both the Cubs and Marlins are traveling down to Miami after wrapping up their weekend series yesterday. 

Right off the bat, that hinders early run production. The Marlins home of LoanDepot Park is a notorious pitcher-friendly stadium. It ranks 25th for runs and 26th for home runs. That’s a primary factor in why Miami has invested so much into their pitching staff. Although NL Cy Young-favorite Sandy Alcantara won’t be on the mound again, they have an incredible rookie making the start. Edward Cabrera looks to be on his way to elite status, and has been shutting down the league’s best lineups. He’s kept the Phillies, Mets, and Braves scoreless in the 1st inning in each of his last 3 starts. Cabrera also faced the Cubs to begin last month, and held them scoreless for 5.0 full innings. 

Such investment in their pitching staff is also why the Marlins lineup has been so terrible. They’re the lowest-scoring team in the 1st inning and have a terrible matchup tonight. The Cubs are starting lefty Wade Miley. He’s certainly no ace, but Miami gets even worse against lefties. They have the lowest OPS against such pitching this season, and it isn’t even close. In fact, they are the only lineup with an OPS lower than .600 against them. The combination of Cabrera on the mound and the Marlins lineup with a bad matchup should prevent any early action in this game. 

Be sure to check out our Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins predictions

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies: YRFI (-160)

Let’s pivot and root for some excitement in one of the later games tonight. That would be the Giants and Rockies heading out to hitter-friendly Coors Field. That’s what makes this price more expensive than usual, but it’s worth it. 

The thin air out in Colorado allows balls to fly out of the stadium, hence why it was the host of the home run derby last season. This is also about picking on Rockies starter Chad Kuhl. We targeted him for a YRFI play in his last start, and he delivered by allowing 3 runs to the White Sox. Prior to that start, he also allowed 3 runs in the 1st inning to the Brewers. Kuhl has been so bad lately that he’s allowed a 1st-inning run in 7 of his last 9 starts. That includes 3 different games allowing 3 runs in the 1 inning, and another allowing 5 runs. 

Along with his poor pitching, he’s also had his lineup support him in the early goings of games. That shouldn’t be too surprising as power-hitter C.J. Cron has the longest home run of the entire season at an incredible 504 feet. Better yet, he’s been moved up to the number 3 spot in the lineup. That means he’s guaranteed a 1st-inning at-bat against Giants starter Jakob Junis. He’s the last option in their rotation. He hasn’t been quite as bad as Kuhl, but he hasn’t been on fire either. Rockies leadoff man Ryan McMahon went 2-for-5 with an RBI the last time Junis was on the mound against them, so expect more early action tonight.

Be sure to check out our San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies predictions

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