MLB picks Monday 8/22: YRFI & NRFI best bets today

One of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, but one swing of the bat can make or break your bet. There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well priced and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose.

There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like today, so let’s get right into it.

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Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies: YRFI (-120)

This pitching matchup should produce runs throughout the night. Luis Cessa will get the nod for the Reds and he will be opposed by the Phillies’ Noah Syndergaard. This will be Cessa’s 2nd start of the season as he has primarily been used in relief, but the Reds are shorthanded in the starting rotation ever since Hunter Greene went on the injured list. In 37.2 innings, Cessa has allowed 40 hits and 25 runs and opponents have a .276 batting average against him. In his one start earlier this year, opponents were 5-for-7 with 3 runs in the first inning. The reliever will have the tough task of facing Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm and JT Realmuto at the top of the Phillies order, and in their last 2 games Philadelphia has scored 5 runs in the first inning.

Cincinnati lost Joey Votto to a season-ending injury, but the top 3 in the Reds order has been swinging a hot bat of late. It will likely be Jake Fraley, Jonathan India, Donovan Solano and Mike Moustakas at the top of the Reds’ lineup, and those four combined to go 8-for-14 against the Pirates on Sunday. They will face Syndergaard, who has been horrendous in the first inning this season with a 7.64 ERA and a .282 batting average against. The wind will also be blowing out throughout the game which will only benefit the hitters. I think if there is a run scored in the first inning it will be from the Phillies, but the Reds’ top of the order isn’t incapable of scoring. I expect a run in the first frame in Philadelphia.

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins: NRFI (-113)

Sonny Gray has been one of the best first-inning pitchers in baseball this season. Through 18 starts, Gray has a 1.50 ERA and has limited the opponent to a .185 batting average in the first frame. He has allowed a first-inning run in just 3 of his 18 starts and just once in his last 13 starts. He will likely face Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia at the top of the Rangers order on Monday. In their careers against Gray, Semien is 2-for-9 (.222), Seager is 0-for-4 (.000), Lowe is 1-for-2 (.500) and Garcia is 1-for-2 (.500).

The only worrisome part of this bet is Cole Ragans. Texas’ No. 29 prospect has pitched only 14.1 innings at the major-league level, so there is some uncertainty around him. But I’m not asking him to throw a scoreless outing — just a scoreless first frame. Through his 3 starts, opponents are 3-for-12 against Ragans in the first inning. He will face a Twins offense that has been severely below average in the last few weeks, as they have recorded just 10 hits in their last 2 games. The top of the Minnesota order is one of the best in baseball, but in their last 7 games Luis Arraez is hitting .240, Carlos Correa is hitting .241 and Jorge Polanco is hitting .231. Ragans might get hit in this game, but it probably won’t be in the first inning.

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