In the MLB futures markets, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites to win their eighth World Series title and second since 2020. In this article, we will examine the movements in the MLB futures odds and determine which picks are worth investing in.
Since the beginning of the season, the World Series odds have changed dramatically for both New York teams. In the initial opening of the market, the New York Mets were trading at +2000 and are now trading at +550. The New York Yankees, on the other hand, have seen their opening odds drop from +1000 to +425. Could we possibly see a rematch of the 2000 World Series in 2022?
When it comes to playing futures markets, the when is just as important as the who. It is seldom a secret who to bet on in any sport, however, timing the when is the key to maximizing your portfolio of futures bets.
Below, we track the movement in MLB futures odds with our top futures picks for the 2022 MLB season (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).
2022 World Series Best Bets
- New York Mets (+550 via Caesars Sportsbook)
World Series Odds
World Series Picks: Favorites
Dodgers
The odds of the Dodgers winning the World Series were +500 when the season began. If you were hoping to obtain a higher price, keep dreaming. The Dodgers have depth and are designed to win 100 games and another World Series title. Since the middle of July, the Dodgers' odds of winning the World Series have decreased even further from +450 to +370. In contrast to the +450 we saw a month ago, the +370 is much shorter than the Dodgers should be priced.
World Series: +370
National League: +175
NL West: OTB
Yankees
After opening at +200 to win the AL East, the Yankees now carry a -3500 price point in the most difficult division in baseball. With their World Series odds now trading at +425, I cannot say I love the Yankees as a postseason team after heavily betting them to win the AL East in the regular season. The Yankees are BetMGM's biggest liability since they account for 15.2% of tickets and 21.3% of the handle in the World Series market.
World Series: +425
American League: +175
AL East: -3500
Astros
With virtually no competition in the AL West, the Houston Astros' odds of winning the division have been sitting at -20000 for quite some time. It is a significant adjustment to their odds, but it is justified since Baseball Prospectus projects the Astros as having a 99% chance of winning the division. While I consider the Astros to be one of the best teams in baseball, I do not like the price of +450 they are trading at right to win the World Series.
World Series: +450
American League: +175
AL West: -20000
Mets
Per FanGraphs, the Mets are the favorites to win the World Series, although they may not be the favorites at the sportsbooks. According to FanGraphs, the Mets have a 17.6% (+468) chance of winning the World Series, while the Dodgers have a 16.8% chance. I favor backing the Mets due to the presence of starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom at the top of the rotation, and even though I would like to think a better price will be available in the postseason, I am not convinced it will be the case as the Mets are expected to get a bye. It is likely that the +550 we are seeing at Caesars is the best price you will find on the Mets for the remainder of the season, so I am investing in them at this price.
World Series: +500
National League: +235
NL East: -1100
Jacob deGrom is officially BACK.
pic.twitter.com/CEYbDp3xTG
— MLB (@MLB) August 7, 2022
World Series Picks: Contenders
Braves
At the beginning of June, we bought +1500 odds on the Atlanta Braves to win the National League. This number is now long gone. The Braves have been revitalized by rookies Spencer Strider and Michael Harris II, and they now have +550 odds of winning the National League. One of the biggest drawbacks to investing in the Braves' futures is that they will not receive a first-round bye as the Mets have completely seized control of the NL East.
World Series: +1200
National League: +550
NL East: +800
Blue Jays
Since the Toronto Blue Jays are one of the most popular teams among bettors, their odds have consistently been lower than they should be to help mitigate potential liabilities. According to PECOTA projections, the Blue Jays should be trading at +2757 to win the World Series, yet the best price you can find is +1500 at Caesars. The Blue Jays' odds do not offer much value at this time, so I am looking elsewhere in the World Series market.
World Series: +1300
American League: +550
AL East: +2000
Padres
At the beginning of July, we were able to jump the market and secure a futures price on the San Diego Padres at a higher number in anticipation of a splash at the trade deadline. I am not interested in buying the Padres at the current odds of +1400, but if I didn't have the Padres already in my pocket, I would buy them at +1400. The Padres are being unfairly portrayed as the Dodgers' little brother, which is creating value for their odds. According to FanGraphs, the Padres should carry a World Series price point of +1165.
World Series: +1400
National League: +700
NL West: OTB
Brewers
Statistically, the Milwaukee Brewers' odds to win the World Series and the NL Central are a good bet, as they are technically longer than they should be. As per the PECOTA projections at Baseball Prospectus, the Brewers should have a price of +2464 to win the World Series, and we are seeing them trade as high as +4000 at Caesars. As much as the numbers are on your side, there may be some human emotion involved as the Brewers traded reliever Josh Hader at the deadline, sending the wrong message to the clubhouse and the fan base. Although the odds are favorable, I will not be betting on the Brewers at this time.
World Series: +3000
National League: +1300
NL Central: +115
Phillies
Despite a rough start to the season, the Philadelphia Phillies have firmly established themselves as a contender in the NL playoff race despite the absence of reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper. It is starters Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler that make the Phillies so intriguing. Watch this price on the Phillies as the +3500 is the highest we have seen all season. If it gets higher, we might have to consider investing in them.
World Series: +3500
National League: +1500
NL East: +6000
White Sox
Even if the Chicago White Sox make the postseason, I have no interest in investing in their futures. The main reason is Tony La Russa and the other reason is Tony La Russa. In addition, I am not interested in betting on them to win the AL Central since their opening price and liability make their odds shorter than they should be.
World Series: +4000
American League: +1500
AL Central: +150
Mariners
The Seattle Mariners were trading at +12500 to win the World Series on July 1st, and now they are trading at +4000 after a winning streak and significant acquisitions at the trade deadline. When September arrives, the Mariners will have one of the easiest schedules in MLB, which leaves little doubt about their ability to reach the postseason. As a longshot play, the Mariners are quite attractive, but I am more interested in their odds to win the American League at +1400 than the World Series.
World Series: +4000
American League: +1400
AL West: +10000
Cardinals
In the race for the NL Central, the St. Louis Cardinals have made a big move on the Brewers. In the middle of July, the Cardinals were trading at +165 to win the division, but now they are trading at -140. In first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and thid baseman Nolan Arenado, the Cardinals have not one but two NL MVP candidates. If you are considering investing in the Cardinals' NL Central odds, the -140 on them is a little shorter than you would like to see.
World Series: +4000
National League: +1500
NL Central: -140
Rays
At this time, there is no value in purchasing futures on the Tampa Bay Rays. Even if they do make it to the postseason and make a run, you will always have an opportunity to jump on their bandwagon and buy a decent price on their futures. In contrast to the Blue Jays, their pricing will always remain high due to the fact that they have little to no liability.
World Series: +5000
American League: +1900
AL East: +18000
World Series Odds: Longshots
Twins
If you purchased the Minnesota Twins' opening numbers to win the AL Central at +800 back in April, you are sitting pretty. Those days are gone and the Twins have evolved into a serious contender for the AL Central and their +170 price point reflects that fact. According to FanGraphs, the Twins have a 39.2% chance of winning the AL Central (+155).
World Series: +7000
American League: +2500
AL Central: +170
Guardians
I am interested in only one futures market for the Cleveland Guardians, and that is their odds to win the AL Central. At +210, the Guardians are priced exactly as you would expect them to be in the market. Due to the close race between three teams for the division title, this is a very fluid market that should be closely monitored. There is a good chance that the odds for the Guardians will return to value at some point due to the liability of the Twins and White Sox.
World Series: +8000
American League: +3500
AL Central: +210
Orioles
It is August, and the Baltimore Orioles have a positive run differential and are in the running for a postseason spot, I cannot believe it. Due to the high opening price, their odds of winning the World Series and the AL remain very long. There is no need to buy the Orioles futures prices anytime soon. You will still be able to buy a decent number on the Orioles even if they make the postseason and appear to be making a run, so there is no reason to rush.
World Series: +20000
American League: +11000
AL West: +100000
Just going to leave this one here
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) August 10, 2022
Where to Bet on the World Series
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