The Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites to win their eighth World Series title and second since 2020. Let’s examine the movements in the MLB futures odds and determine if any picks are worth investing in right now.
The World Series odds have changed dramatically for both New York teams since the beginning of the season. The New York Mets were trading at +2000 when the market opened, and they’re now at +750. Meanwhile, the New York Yankees’ odds have dropped from +1000 to +400. Could we see a rematch of the 2000 World Series?
When it comes to playing futures markets, the when is just as important as the who. It’s seldom a secret who to bet on in any sport. However, timing is the key to maximizing the value of your portfolio of futures wagers.
Below, we track the movement of MLB futures odds and examine how to approach the current market (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).
2022 World Series Best Bets
- National League Pennant: Braves (+1500)
- AL West Division: Rangers (+10000)
World Series Odds
World Series Picks: Favorites
Dodgers
The odds of the Los Angeles Dodgers winning the World Series were +500 when the season began. If you were hoping to obtain a higher price, keep dreaming.
The Dodgers are deep, and they’re designed to win 100 games and another title. They’re currently trading at +450 through Caesars Sportsbook, which is in line with where the team should be positioned in the World Series market. The Dodgers’ World Series odds are unlikely to move considerably until the trade deadline if they make yet another splash.
World Series: +400
National League: +185
NL West Division: -1100
Yankees
The price on the Yankees winning the World Series continues to shorten as they keep extending their lead in the AL East. The Yankees were trading at +600 during the beginning of June, but now they’re down to +400 on DraftKings.
After opening at +200 to win the AL East, the Yankees now carry a -5000 price point in the most difficult division in baseball. With their World Series odds now trading at +400, I cannot say I love the Yankees as a postseason team after having heavily bet them to win the AL East.
World Series: +400
American League: +180
AL East Division: -5000
With the @Orioles' win tonight, every AL East team is .500 or better.
(MLB x @HankookTireUSA) pic.twitter.com/mvLq9Nrb80
— MLB (@MLB) July 13, 2022
Astros
With virtually no competition in the AL West, the Houston Astros' odds of winning the division have adjusted from -340 to -20000 over the past month. That’s significant, but it’s justified since Baseball Prospectus is giving the Astros a 99% chance of taking the division.
World Series: +500
American League: +215
AL West Division: -20000
Mets
Due to the Atlanta Braves' surge, the Mets have actually seen their odds of winning the NL East lengthen over the last few weeks. In early June, the Mets were -370 favorites to win the division, but now they are only -160 favorites. As long as starting pitchers Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom are at the front of the rotation, this will be a very dangerous team in the postseason.
World Series: +750
National League: +350
NL East Division: -160
Braves
At the beginning of June, we bought the Braves at +1500 to win the National League. This number is now long gone. The Braves have been revitalized by rookie starter Spencer Strider and outfielder Michael Harris, and they now have +425 odds of winning the National League. As all their numbers have tightened up to a point where their futures offer no value, the opportunity to bet on the Braves has passed.
World Series: +850
National League: +425
NL East Division: +135
World Series Picks: Contenders
Brewers
It is difficult to evaluate the Milwaukee Brewers since they are good enough to be a playoff team, but not good enough to be taken seriously to win it all. It seems that I am not the only one who holds this opinion, as the sportsbooks have adjusted their odds from +1100 to +1700 to win the World Series. Statistically, the -245 for the Brewers to win the NL Central is a better price than what should be offered, however, I am not personally interested in betting on their futures.
World Series: +1700
National League: +800
NL Central Division: -245
Blue Jays
Despite opening as the favorites to win the AL East at +175, the Toronto Blue Jays are now struggling to even qualify for the postseason. In my opinion, it is best to stay away from all Blue Jays futures at the moment, as they have already increased from +1000 to +1800 to win the World Series since the beginning of June.
World Series: +1800
American League: +650
AL East Division: +4000
Padres
After videos of shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. performing defensive drills leaked, I intend to get ahead of any moves on the San Diego Padres odds. As I believe this price will be much shorter once October arrives, I am placing a wager on the Padres to win the World Series at +1800. Additionally, I anticipate that the Padres will make a splash at the trade deadline as they were close to acquiring second baseman Jose Ramirez from the Cleveland Guardians during the offseason.
World Series: +1800
National League: +850
NL West Division: +800
Rays
This season, the Tampa Bay Rays do not seem to possess the magic we have come to expect from them, and it will only get harder as shortstop Wander Franco is expected to miss up to eight weeks due to injury. The Rays are priced at +3000 to win the World Series, and I expect this to increase in the upcoming weeks.
World Series: +3000
American League: +1400
AL East Division: +7500
Red Sox
Considering that the Blue Jays are currently in a downward spiral and the Rays are currently dealing with an injury to their superstar shortstop, the Boston Red Sox appear to be in the best position to make the postseason from this group of teams. This is not something you would have said at the end of May, when the Red Sox were available at +8000 to win the World Series.
World Series: +3000
American League: +1300
AL East Division: +7500
Phillies
While the Philadelphia Phillies have turned things around since the firing of manager Joe Girardi, they are still outside the playoff picture in the NL. It is the fact that starters Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are at the forefront of their rotation that makes the Phillies so intriguing. Watch this price on the Phillies, +3500 is the highest we have seen all season, and if it gets higher, we might have to consider investing in them.
World Series: +3500
National League: +1600
NL East Division: +1900
White Sox
In polite terms, the Chicago White Sox are a disaster, and you should not place any bets on them as long as Tony La Russa is in charge. White Sox began the season as -200 favorites to win the AL Central, and if it weren't for their liabilities in the market, they would have odds higher than +165 at this time.
World Series: +3500
American League: +1400
AL Central Division: +165
Cardinals
I am closely monitoring the St. Louis Cardinals in the futures market. Their odds to win the NL Central have shortened from +260 to +165, while their World Series odds have moved from +3000 to +4000. They are receiving MVP-caliber performances from first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and third baseman Nolan Arenado, but could greatly benefit from additional pitching. The perspective you have of this team would be dramatically altered if the Cards were able to acquire an elite arm at the trade deadline. Should they be able to acquire some pitching, I would be very interested in purchasing their futures at these prices.
World Series: +4000
National League: +1700
NL Central Division: +165
Twins
If you purchased the Minnesota Twins' opening numbers to win the AL Central at +800 in April, you are sitting pretty. Those days are gone and the Twins have evolved into serious contenders for the AL Central and their -120 price point reflects that fact. According to PECOTA, the Twins have a 56.2% chance of winning the AL Central (-128).
World Series: +4500
American League: +1800
AL Central Division: -120
Giants
The San Francisco Giants' World Series odds have been all over the place. The Giants were posted at +2800 on Opening Day, and by the end of April, they had been reduced to +1500. It is now July, and the Giants are back up to +5000 in the World Series market. It is possible that the Giants will have to make a splash at the trade deadline if they wish to remain competitive for the NL Wild Card.
World Series: +5000
National League: +2500
NL West Division: +4000
Mariners
The Seattle Mariners were trading at +12500 to win the World Series on July 1, and now they are priced at +6500 amid a winning streak. In recent weeks, the Mariners have seen a significant adjustment to their futures odds across the board as they have been able to climb their way back into the race for the AL Wild Card. As the Mariners have one of the easiest schedules in September, you will want to pay attention to their odds of making the postseason at the end of August.
World Series: +6500
American League: +2500
AL West Division: +6000
World Series Odds: Longshots
Guardians
They technically still have a chance to make the postseason or even win the AL Central, but do the Guardians really have a chance? You know ownership is not going to be active at the trade deadline looking to acquire key pieces. It would not surprise me if the Guardians still finish the season in that 78-81 win range.
World Series: +11000
American League: +4500
AL Central Division: +475
Angels
When was the last time you witnessed a team collapse this hard after such a strong start to the season? Despite having two of the best players in the game in Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, the Los Angeles Angels find themselves once again on the outside looking in for the postseason. There was a time this season when the Angels were as short as +1800 to win the World Series; now, the Angels are +16000.
World Series: +16000
American League: +10000
AL West Division: +12000
Marlins
The Miami Marlins are in a difficult position since they are one of the better teams among the not-so-great teams, yet there is no futures market in which they can really win. Although they are building a solid young core of starting pitchers and Sandy Alcantara is one of the most exciting pitchers in all of baseball, I would not bet on their futures this year.
World Series: +18000
National League: +10000
NL East Division: +20000
Orioles
Following a winning streak, the Baltimore Orioles are now priced at +40000 after trading at +100000 to win the World Series. To capitalize on the Orioles, it would be best to consider their odds of making the postseason. Their odds of making the postseason were +4000 prior to their winning streak, but now they are at +1700. If you are interested in becoming involved with the Orioles, this is a great play.
World Series: +40000
American League: +20000
AL West Division: +10000
Rangers
According to the odds, the Rangers are out of the race for the AL Wild Card, but they are only one winning streak away from being in the mix. While I am not interested in the Rangers' futures to win the World Series or AL, there may be some value to be found in their odds to make the postseason.
World Series: +50000
American League: +25000
AL West Division: +14000
Where to Bet on the World Series
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The post MLB Futures Odds and Picks: Dodgers and Yankees Remain Favorites to Win the World Series appeared first on Picks.
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