MLB Best Bets for Thursday: Matchups, Odds, Picks, and Predictions

Opening Day is upon us, and we’ve highlighted the odds, movements, and some of the MLB best bets for Thursday’s action.

Baseball being played in early April seemed impossible a month ago. But then Bob Nightengale gave us a glimmer of hope one evening. A new collective bargaining agreement was reached, the lockout ended, and baseball is resuming a week into April as a result.

Here are our MLB best bets for Thursday’s seven-game slate (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caesars Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thursday’s MLB Schedule and Odds

(Odds via Draftkings)

• Milwaukee Brewers (-190) vs. Chicago Cubs (+160)
• Cleveland Guardians (-120) vs. Kansas City Royals (+105)
• Pittsburgh Pirates (+155) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-180)
• New York Mets (-115) vs. Washington Nationals (-105)
• Cincinnati Reds (+155) vs. Atlanta Braves (-180) 
• Houston Astros (+100) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-120)
• San Diego Padres (-135) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+115)

SEE ALSO: MLB Risers and Fallers Entering Opening Day

Thursday’s MLB Best Bets

• Moneyline: Mets (-115 via DraftKings) vs. Nationals ★★★★
• Spread: Padres -1.5 (+115 via Caesars) vs. Diamondbacks ★★★
• Total: Pirates-Cardinals Over 7.5 (-112 via FanDuel) ★★★★
• Upset: Pirates (+155) ★★★★★
• Prop bet: Kyle Tucker to hit a home run (+490 via Caesars) ★★★★★
• To hit a home run Parlay: Kyle Farmer (+900) + Kyle Tucker (+490) + Andrew Benintendi (+850, all via Caesars) ★★★★

SEE ALSO: What Guardians Locking up Ramirez Means for MLB Futures Markets

Thursday’s MLB Top Picks

Moneyline: Mets (-115)

The New York Mets opened as -130 road favorites against Washington, but the line has since moved in favor of the Nationals. The Mets are now a -115 favorite after 56% of the tickets have been purchased on Washington.

That may be the result of the Mets starting Tylor Megill on Opening Day instead of Max Scherzer or Jacob deGrom. Megill may not be on their level, but he did manage 9.94 K/9 and a 3.92 xFIP over 18 starts in 2021.

Jump on the -115 price and back the Mets.

Spread: Padres -1.5 (+115)

The Padres opened as a -115 favorite on the run line against the Diamondbacks. The number has now moved to +115 for the Padres, with 73% of the cash backing Arizona.

The early money for several MLB games on Thursday has been going toward the underdogs. There’s clearly a consensus that the favorites are too heavily juiced.

It’s tough to be interested in this line at -115. But that changes with the move to +115.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Total: Pirates-Cardinals Over 7.5 (-112)

Let’s go against the public and take the Over on 7.5 in the Pirates-Cardinals game. The total for this contest opened at 8, but it’s since been bet down to 7.5, with 61% of the money on the Under.

The wind today won’t help Adam Wainwright and JT Brubaker, who are both mediocre at best. There will be 18-mph winds blowing directly out to right field, and that will benefit the left-handed hitters with two righties on the mound.

FanDuel is the only sportsbook posting a total of 7.5, so jump on that and play the Over.

SEE ALSO: Pirates-Cardinals Picks

Upset: Pirates (+155)

The Cardinals are -175 favorites, and there’s no shortage of wagers backing St. Louis against the Pirates. Currently, 86% of the cash and 87% of the tickets are on the Cardinals.

If the Pirates win 65 games in 2022, that would a winning percentage of 40.1 and a price point of +149. Wainwright and the Cardinals don’t appeal to me, so favor the Pirates at +155.

Prop bet: Tucker to hit a home run (+490)

Tucker homered in 30 of his 140 games in 2021. That’s 21.4% of his appearances, and we can therefore establish a buy point of +367 for him to hit a home run.

The +490 Caesars is posting on Tucker is well above that point, and it therefore represents tremendous value. The DraftKings number of +425 is also above that point, but it’s 65 cents lower than Caesars’ odds.

SEE ALSO: Astros-Angels Picks

To hit a home run Parlay: Farmer (+900) + Tucker (+490) + Benintendi (+850)

Based on his 2021 production, Farmer should be carrying a price point of +819 to hit a home run. However, Caesars is listing him at +900. He also displayed plenty of power this past season against left-handers, and the Reds will be facing Max Fried of the Braves on Thursday.

Tucker finds his way into our parlay for the reasons already outlined. Meanwhile, Benintendi should be carrying a price point of +801, but Caesars has posted him at +850.

SEE ALSO: Reds-Braves Picks

Where to Bet on MLB Best Bets

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

MLB odds and best bets from 4/7/2022 at 12:37 p.m. ET

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