Men’s Wimbledon Final Odds and Picks: Novak Djokovic vs. Nick Kyrgios

A rivalry will be renewed on Centre Court at Wimbledon as a 20-time Grand Slam champion looks for his first career win over his challenger. Read on for our men’s Wimbledon final picks.

Novak Djokovic is the three-time defending champion at Wimbledon and he will go for Grand Slam No. 21 on Sunday against Australian Nick Kyrgios.

Kyrgios is well-known for his antics on the court, but he has let his play do the talking over the last two weeks. He is in his first career Grand Slam final and he will have the benefit of three days’ rest after advancing via a walkover in wake of Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal.

Here are my picks and predictions for Sunday’s Wimbledon final between Djokovic and Kyrgios (odds via Pointsbet, Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Men’s Wimbledon Final Match Info

Date/Time: Sunday, July 10, 9 a.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: All England Lawn Tennis & Croquet Club, London, England

Djokovic vs. Kyrgios Odds Analysis

There was a ton of movement with this line early, and no one could agree on a fair price for Kyrgios. He opened up at +320 at PointsBet – the first book to get odds out – and +375 at BetMGM. After reaching as high as +380 and sinking below +300, he’s settled down right around +300. The best price on Kyrgios is +310 at PointsBet and the best on Djokovic is -375 at BetMGM.

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Djokovic vs. Kyrgios Picks

• Kyrgios ML (+310 via PointsBet) ★★★
• Both Players to Win A Set (-130 via Caesars) ★★★★★

Djokovic vs. Kyrgios Predictions

Kyrgios ML (+310)

These odds imply that there’s just a 24.4% chance Kyrgios wins the Wimbledon final, which is just ludicrous. Never mind the fact that Djokovic has been made to work hard in his last few matches and has come out of the gate slowly in each of them, even a dialed-in and fully focused Djokovic should be around a -250 favorite in this match.

Kyrgios is truly playing like a top-three player on grass with a booming serve that has gotten him out of trouble all tournament long and made him near-unbreakable. He’s been crushing his backhand returns and I would anticipate his overly aggressive style making a long appearance in this one.

The types of players with the most success against Djokovic (or make a serious impact on the match) are those who swing big and hit through the master defender. Kyrgios is one of the most powerful players on tour and, like Jannik Sinner who took a two-set lead over Djokovic, has the ability to redline and just totally take the racquet out of Djokovic’s hands.

Never mind the fact that Kyrgios is 2-0 all-time against Djokovic, and that the Serb has yet to win a set over the Aussie. This line just doesn’t make much sense to me, and Kyrgios is the clear value.

Both Players To Win A Set (-130)

This is the smart way to play the final. I’d make the fair price on Kyrgios to take a set around -180, and the odds on Djokovic taking a set are astronomical. With that, this seems like an incredible deal.

As noted above, Kyrgios has yet to lose a set against Djokovic in their two meetings. While those two matches were in 2017, when Djokovic was just a notch below his best level, that history will surely help Kyrgios come out with the confidence needed to take a foothold in this match.

Aside from that, Djokovic has started slow in these championships, dropping the first set in each of his last two matches and failing to win the second set in two of the four prior to that. He’s turned it on late, but he’s sort of been in a fog early in matches. For whatever reason, the magnitude of the match simply hasn’t mattered. We’ve also seen this happen to Djokovic in Grand Slam finals over the last few years. He’s rarely come through convincingly in straight sets, so I don’t think we should expect him to against a force like Kyrgios.

Where to Bet on Djokovic-Kyrgios Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Djokovic-Kyrgios picks made on 7/8/2022 at 4:05 p.m. ET.

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