Mavericks vs. Suns Game 1 NBA Picks: Phoenix Back at Full Strength

Since Luka Doncic returned to the Dallas Mavericks’ lineup, all three of their games have stayed Under 200 total points. Does this stat make it worth fading a line move to the Over in Game 1? We discuss in our Mavericks-Suns picks.

The back half of Monday night’s NBA postseason doubleheader features Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals series between the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns.

Although they were without their superstar in Luka Doncic to begin the playoffs, the Mavericks (5-1 against the spread, 2-4 Over/Under) were still able to eliminate the Utah Jazz in six games. In many ways, the series was a lot more lopsided than the 4-2 final margin. Dallas effectively took away Utah’s primary offensive weapon: the 3-point shot. Superb defense and better than expected play from Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie powered Dallas to its first playoff series win since the franchise won the title in 2011.

The Suns (4-2 ATS, 4-2 O/U) also had to contend with a key player being injured in their first-round series. When Devin Booker exited Game 2 with a hamstring strain, the defending Western Conference champs suddenly found themselves in a dogfight with the No. 8-seed New Orleans Pelicans. Booker returned in Game 6, well ahead of his initial injury timetable, and Phoenix was able to eliminate New Orleans on the road. Chris Paul had a very strong series overall, but no performance topped his perfect 14-14 shooting effort in the clincher.

Here are my picks and predictions for Monday’s NBA playoff matchup between the Mavericks and Suns (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Mavericks vs. Suns Game Info

Date/Time: Monday, May 2, 10 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

Mavericks vs. Suns Odds Analysis

After the injury concerns faced last round, both the Mavericks and Suns come into their conference semifinals series fully healthy. As such, the NBA betting odds for Game 1 serve as a true reflection of how the market views these teams at full strength. Oddsmakers tabbed Phoenix as a six-point home favorite to open. Since then, the market has come in enough on the underdog Mavs that the line has shifted to Suns -5.5.

Interestingly enough, the total has been bet up slightly after opening at 213. At the time of writing, bettors can find any number of O/U lines available in the market. While several sportsbooks list 214, an increase of just one point from the opening line, others are already as high as 215. Thus, shopping the odds will be key depending on which side of the total one wishes to bet.

As far as ticket counts, a slight majority have gotten behind the Suns as a home favorite. However, the percentage gaps are only 53% on the spread and 52% on the moneyline. Thus, Dallas is clearly a respected underdog coming into this series. The ticket count for the total is much more lopsided with 72% of public bets on the Over.

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Mavericks vs. Suns Picks

• Moneyline: Suns (-222 via BetMGM) ★★
• Spread: Mavericks +5.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★★
• Total: Under 215 (-110 via DraftKings) ★★★
• Prop: Spencer Dinwiddie Over 2.5 assists (-115 via PointsBet) ★★★★

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Mavericks vs. Suns Predictions

Suns ML (-222)

Do we love laying over two dollars minimum on a straight moneyline wager? Definitely not. However, backing Phoenix for the outright win in Game 1 is easily the more plausible outcome to pursue.

To be frank, Paul is on a mission and will not be denied. Not only did he institute a team curfew ahead of Game 6 in New Orleans, but he then went out and had the best shooting performance in NBA postseason history. Who on earth shoots 14-14 from the field? A man on a mission to win a championship, that's who.

With Booker back in the lineup, this is the full Suns team that won 64 games during the regular season. By no means can they take this series or Game 1 against Dallas lightly. However, with the home fans in The Valley behind them, look for Phoenix to earn the outright win this evening.

Mavericks +5.5 (-110)

Knowing that the point spread has shifted a half-point in Dallas' favor despite a slight majority of ATS bets backing Phoenix makes the underdog quite appealing. While the Suns are the more complete team and should win the series, the Mavericks have the goods to put up a real fight. Nothing figures to come easily for the defending conference champs.

Doncic has been stellar since making his postseason debut in Game 4 of the first round. The real player who deserves praise, however, is Brunson. No one could have foreseen the fourth-year pro scoring 23 points or more in every single game of the Mavs' opening-round series.

When Doncic was sidelined early on, Brunson carried the load with 41 and 31 points scored in Games 2 and 3, respectively. He continued to be a sturdy secondary option offensively even after Dallas' superstar rejoined the lineup.

The manner in which several other Mavericks were able to step up in Doncic's absence speaks volumes about the underrated depth of this team. Both Dorian Finney-Smith and Dinwiddie played well throughout the series. Of course, Maxi Kleber was unstoppable in Game 2 as well.

The Mavs are not a team to be taken lightly. Proven to be a capable force on the defensive end, look for Dallas to muck things up and keep Game 1 close.

Under 215 (-110)

Both the Mavericks and Suns finished among the top six teams in defensive efficiency this season. When it comes to the number of possessions each team used and faced on a per-game basis, however, there is a stark difference.

The Suns have actually been among the 10 quickest teams in the NBA this season. Phoenix enters the Western Conference semifinals with a pace factor of 102.0 possessions used per game. That's a far cry from the 97.5 possessions that the Mavs used on average this season. Not only does Dallas rank last in pace factor, but that average is nearly one full possession fewer than any other team.

Although the total has risen a point or more depending on the sportsbook, bettors are wise to consider buying back on the Under. There figures to be a feeling-out process in Game 1 of this series. With both teams being extremely sound defensively, prowess on that end of the floor could rise to the surface.

Furthermore, Doncic is very much responsible for slowing down the Mavericks' pace of play. Since his return, all three of Dallas' games failed to reach 200 total points scored.

Dinwiddie Over 2.5 assists (-115)

It makes total sense that Dinwiddie's player prop totals are lower now that Doncic is back in the lineup for Dallas. However, this assists prop line of 2.5 hardly does justice to Dinwiddie's skills as a distributor.

Even in a backup point guard role since being acquired by the Mavericks at the trade deadline, Dinwiddie still averaged 3.9 assists per game. Thus, he would need to underachieve in a big way to stay Under the current prop line. Only twice in his NBA career regardless of the team has Dinwiddie averaged fewer than three assists per contest in a season. Both of those campaigns were notably cut way short due to injuries.

Perhaps the primary argument for oddsmakers listing this total so low is that Dinwiddie's assist production really dropped off last round once Doncic was reinstated to the lineup. Despite still playing 24, 28, and 31 minutes in Games 4-6 respectively, Dinwiddie failed to record more than 2.5 assists in the latter two contests.

Knowing that there will be more of a feeling-out process with this being a Game 1 matchup, the 29-year-old should certainly be good for a trio of helpers. This is especially true knowing he will spend a chunk of his time on the floor going against the Suns' reserves as well.

Where to Bet on Mavericks-Suns Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

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Mavericks-Suns picks made 5/2/2022 at 12:33 p.m. ET.

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