As we approach Thursday’s first tip-offs and March Madness gets underway, we offer some of our best bets and picks for Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament.
The No. 1 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs will not take the court until Thursday afternoon at 4:15 p.m. ET, but there will be plenty of intriguing matchups to watch when the NCAA Tournament starts.
Who will be the first top seed to be upset in 2022? I believe we are in for some chaos this year due to the absence of any truly elite teams. It is one of the more evenly balanced fields in recent memory, as there is no clear favorite to win the National Championship in New Orleans on April 4.
We all enjoy upsets, and the Selection Committee has set us up for several early underdog wins on Thursday with the schedule they designed. The South Dakota State Jackrabbits, one of the most exciting teams in college basketball, were placed in the early window on Thursday for a reason.
As you examine the brackets and seek out your favorite wagers ahead of the NCAA Tournament, we present some of our top picks for the tournament.
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March Madness Round 1 Picks: Moneyline
Colorado State (+125 via DraftKings)
Colorado State should be the favorite in this game against Michigan. According to KenPom, Colorado State ranks 34th, while Michigan ranks 32nd. My recommendation would be to wait as close to game time as possible before betting on this moneyline. The difficulties with the travel arrangements for Colorado State will lead to even more public money being wagered on Michigan.
South Dakota State (+115 via DraftKings)
March Madness is built on upsets and chaos, and the Selection Committee knew exactly what they were doing when they placed this matchup among the first wave of games. Providence is overrated as a No. 4 seed, and this is no secret. If you are backing South Dakota State, this is a moneyline you should consider purchasing immediately. The Jackrabbits are taking a lot of money in this matchup.
Murray State (-115 via FanDuel)
Each time I watch San Francisco, I am never that impressed. Murray State, however, has had many NCAA Tournament appearances in recent years. I am inclined to favor Murray State’s experience as a program. As FanDuel is currently offering -115 on the Murray State moneyline, I recommend staying away from the 1.5-point spread.
Virginia Tech (-102 via FanDuel)
With the way Virginia Tech is playing at the moment, it is not your typical 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Hokies won 11 of their last 13 games, including dominating performances against North Carolina and Duke in the ACC tournament. While they may be seeded 11th in the bracket, they’re 22nd by the KenPom rankings.
https://t.co/hIjL7C43Er pic.twitter.com/683eBHAd5g
— Virginia Tech Men’s Basketball (@HokiesMBB) March 15, 2022
Davidson (+100 via Caesars)
It’s the Foster Loyer revenge game, as the Michigan State transfer leads his Davidson Wildcats against his former teammates. We all like to talk about Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo and his success in March, however, this isn’t his typical Michigan State team. KenPom gives Davidson a 50% chance of winning, so there is some value in the price point of +100 that Caesars is offering.
March Madness Round 1 Picks: Against the Spread
Boise State +2.5 (-110 via Caesars)
Memphis has been playing better basketball recently; however, I cannot trust a team coached by Penny Hardaway. Since the statistics of these two teams are extremely similar, I would prefer to take 2.5 points with Boise State rather than lay the points with Memphis.
Gonzaga -23.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
While Georgia State is taking a lot of money in this matchup, I prefer to back the other team. Gonzaga head coach Mark Few has had to prepare his team for more blowout victories than any other head coach in the country. Gonzaga plays in matchups such as this on a regular basis within the West Coast Conference, and it is very unlikely that the Zags will overlook this 16 seed.
North Carolina -3.5 (-110 via Caesars)
It is a game between two teams that are trending in opposite directions. North Carolina won six of its last seven games, while Marquette lost six of its last 10. I’ll take the Tar Heels to cover the spread by 3.5 points in this 8-9 matchup.
Flipped the script
— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) March 6, 2022
New Mexico State +6.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
In 2019, the New Mexico State Aggies lost their opening game by one point to the Auburn Tigers in the NCAA Tournament. As a higher seed, this team always seems to put up a fight. I expect UConn to win, but it will be a close contest.
Texas Southern +22 (-110 via DraftKings)
In my opinion, the Kansas Jayhawks are the most vulnerable No. 1 seed. Throughout the season, I have not taken a liking to their roster. KenPom projects Kansas to win this game by 18 points. I will gladly wager against the additional 4 points on the DraftKings point spread.
Loyola Chicago +1 (-110 via DraftKings)
After Ohio State lost four of its previous five games, Loyola Chicago is actually the superior team in this matchup. Many sportsbooks are offering Loyola Chicago with a -110 moneyline. Rather than taking the -110 moneyline, play the +1 point spread at DraftKings at the same odds.
Auburn -15.5 (-110 via Caesars)
Jacksonville State failed to even win the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. As Bellarmine is transitioning from Division 2 to Division 1 in the NCAA, it is not eligible for the NCAA bid. Jacksonville State does not appear to be a live underdog in this game and Auburn has the firepower to run away with it.
Purdue -16 (-110 via Caesars)
In every game in which Yale faced a formidable opponent this season, it was completely outplayed. Yale lost by an average of 28 points to Seton Hall, Auburn, and Saint Mary’s. The Boilermakers should be able to score at will, as Yale will have no answer for Zach Edey on the interior.
Cal State Fullerton +18.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
As this is Coach K’s last trip to the NCAA Tournament, we are being given inflated lines on the Blue Devils. Duke is such a public team, and with this added narrative in play, its point spreads are almost certain to be significantly higher than they should be throughout the tournament. According to KenPom, Duke will win this game by 14 points. As a result, you must consider backing the additional 4.5 points on FanDuel’s line.
LSU -4 (-110 via Caesars)
Due to the dismissal of Will Wade as the head coach of the LSU Tigers, many bettors are backing Iowa State in this matchup. In college basketball, losing your head coach isn’t always a bad thing. Without their head coach, LSU players may be able to play more freely and motivated. Additionally, I believe that LSU has significantly more talent than Iowa State in this matchup.
UAB +8.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
All season long, the Houston Cougars have been one of the teams that the analytics have absolutely loved. As much as I believe Houston is an outstanding team and head coach Kelvin Sampson deserves a lot of credit for the work he has done this season, I do not agree that Houston is 8.5 points better than UAB. While I expect Houston to win the game, I believe it will be a closely contested affair.
March Madness Round 1 Picks: O/U
Seton Hall-TCU Over 130 (-110 via Caesars)
At first glance, I see two teams with defenses ranked within the top 30 on KenPom and I automatically gravitate toward the Under. In spite of the fact that both teams are very strong defensively, you have to side with the Over in this scenario. This is due to the number that is tied to the total. By offering this low point total, sportsbooks are exploiting the fact that the game will be portrayed as a defensive slugfest.
March Madness Round 1 Picks: Team Totals
Longwood Over 56.5 points (-110 via DraftKings)
Tennessee has one of the best defenses in college basketball, however, this well-known fact is also the reason that Longwood’s team total is 2.5 points lower than it should be. KenPom predicts Longwood will score 59 points in this matchup.
Indiana Under 62.5 points (-120 via DraftKings)
Among the top teams in college basketball, nobody is discussing Saint Mary’s. In contrast to Wyoming, the Gaels will have a defensive plan to slow down Hoosiers star Trayce Jackson-Davis. Saint Mary’s is one of the most successful teams at contesting each shot without fouling.
Creighton Under 59.5 points (-120 via DraftKings)
I hope Creighton enjoys running its offensive sets well into the shot clock, as San Diego State ranks 358th in average possession length on defense. According to KenPom, the Aztecs are ranked second in college basketball for their defense and Creighton is predicted to score 59 points in this game.
Montana State Under 58.5 points (-110 via DraftKings)
I would rather drink a warm beer on a hot day than deal with Texas Tech’s defense. According to KenPom, the Red Raiders have the top-ranked defense in all of college basketball. KenPom predicts that Montana State will score 58 points against Texas Tech in the first round.
Villanova Over 75.5 points (-110 via DraftKings)
A weakness of the Delaware defense is the strength of the Villanova offense. Villanova ranks 59th in 3-point shooting percentage on offense, while Delaware ranks 256th in 3-point line defense. There is no doubt that Delaware is more efficient on offense than on defense, so I anticipate a high number of points from the Wildcats.
Illinois Over 71.5 points (-115 via DraftKings)
Fighting Illini forward Kofi Cockburn will cause all kinds of problems for the Chattanooga defense in the paint. Illinois will have several opportunities to shoot 3-pointers if Chattanooga is forced to bring double teams to help with interior defense. Since Illinois is one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the country, I do not see how Chattanooga will be able to slow them down on defense.
Colgate Over 65.5 points (-115 via FanDuel)
Coming into the NCAA Tournament, Colgate is playing at a very high level, as it won 19 of its last 20 games. Earlier this season, the Raiders defeated Syracuse by 15 points after dropping 100 points. During the Patriot League tournament, they averaged 83.6 points per game. Additionally, they are the second-best 3-point shooting team in college basketball. KenPom has projected that they will score 67 points in their game against Wisconsin.
March Madness Round 1 Picks: Props
James Akinjo Over 5.5 assists (+100 via DraftKings)
James Akinjo recorded at least six assists in seven of his last nine games for the Baylor Bears. Against the No. 16 seed Norfolk State Spartans, Akinjo will have no difficulty setting up his teammates with some spectacular dimes.
Keegan Murray Under 24.5 points (-105 via DraftKings)
The Richmond Spiders held the Davidson Wildcats’ top two scorers to a combined 12 points in the A-10 Championship game. Their game plan will center on stopping the First-Team All American, Keegan Murray.
JD Notae Over 4.5 rebounds (+130 via DraftKings)
While JD Notae is normally discussed in terms of his ability to score, there is more value in his rebounding total than his points total in this matchup. He has recorded at least 4.5 rebounds in four of his last six games. It is a low total to be carrying a +130 price point for the Over.
Johnny Juzang Over 15.5 points (-105 via DraftKings)
Johnny Juzang scored 16 points in 39 minutes against Arizona in his most recent appearance. Due to Juzang’s low-scoring output over the last five games because of injury, we are getting a lower total on his points prop than we should. The fact that he played 39 minutes in his last game speaks volumes about his recovery.
Chevez Goodwin Under 9.5 points (-135 via DraftKings)
Goodwin is not playing the same role on the USC offense as he did earlier this season. In his last seven games, he surpassed the 9.5 point threshold only once. In the one game in which he did surpass 9.5 points, he finished with only 10 points. As Goodwin played only 19 minutes against UCLA, I like the Under in this matchup.
NCAA Tournament History
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The post March Madness Picks: Best Bets for Round 1 - Moneyline, ATS, O/U, and Prop Selections from Biggest Games appeared first on Picks.
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