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March Madness Odds and Picks: Favorites, Values, and Longshots for the NCAA Tournament

March 14, 2022
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The bracket is officially set for the 2021-22 NCAA Tournament. This page looks at the odds and discusses the favorites, contenders, and longshots for March Madness, along with our top NCAA Tournament picks.

Letโ€™s dance.

The 2021-22 March Madness tournament will begin on Tuesday with the First Four. Indiana and Wyoming, and Texas A&M Corpus-Christi and Texas Southern get things started in Tuesdayโ€™s action. Wednesdayโ€™s schedule features Rutgers and Notre Dame, and Wright State and Bryant. Round 1 of the NCAA Tournament then gets underway on Thursday.

Below, we track the NCAA Tournament odds with our top college basketball futures picks and all the details for March Madness.

2021-22 March Madness Odds

(Odds as of March 13)

March Madness Picks

  • Arkansas Razorbacks to make the Final Four (+1300 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • Illinois Fighting Illini to make the Final Four (+950 via FanDuel)
  • Saint Maryโ€™s Gaels to make the Final Four (+2500 via PointsBet)
  • Arkansas Razorbacks to win NCAA Tournament (+5000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

March Madness Favorite Picks

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Gonzaga is the top-ranked team on KenPom and in the NET rankings. Head coach Mark Few's team fell one win short of winning it all last year when losing to Baylor in the National Championship game. Big men Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren provide the Bulldogs with an interior presence that should help them avoid an early upset during March Madness.

As a futures bettor, I found Gonzaga's performance against Saint Mary's on Feb. 26 to be alarming. Saint Mary's dominated on the interior, and this is not something you would expect to see in a matchup against Gonzaga.

The game against Saint Mary's raised a number of red flags for me. This changed the price point at which I would be willing to consider buying Gonzaga at this point in the year. Gonzaga is one of the premier teams in the country, but I cannot justify betting the +375 odds.

Gonzaga began the season with odds of +600 to win the National Championship. The Bulldogs currently account for 11.5% of the handle at BetMGM, the highest percentage of any team.

Key wins: Texas, UCLA, Texas Tech

Kentucky Wildcats

Although this is not Calipari's most talented team at Kentucky, it is his most cohesive. The Wildcats are ranked third by KenPom.ย 

Kentucky opened the season with odds of +1600 at BetMGM. During the course of the season, the Wildcats reached a high of +2200 but sit at +800. As a result, they represent one of BetMGM's biggest liabilities.

Kentucky is one of my favorite picks to win the NCAA Tournament. I am debating whether to recommend buying the Wildcats because I am hoping we can get a price increase from +800 to +1000 if they get bounced from the SEC Tournament.

Key wins: Kansas, Tennessee, Alabama

Arizona Wildcats

Tommy Lloyd, a first-year head coach, has made an immediate impact with the Wildcats. Under the guidance of the long-time Gonzaga assistant, Arizona has been ranked as the second-most efficient team in college basketball by KenPom. The Wildcats are led by Canadian guard Bennedict Mathurin.

The odds for Arizona to win the National Championship began the season at +5000 at BetMGM. The Wildcats were as high as +7000 at other sportsbooks. Due to the odds BetMGM offered at the beginning of the season, Arizona represents the largest liability for the sportsbook.

After a dominant win against USC, in which the Wildcats literally ran the Trojans out of the building, Arizona now sits behind Gonzaga on the odds board. After beating the Trojans, Arizona's odds have dropped from +900 to +700.ย ย 

Key wins: Illinois, UCLA

Purdue Boilermakers

The Boilermakers are led by sophomore guard Jaden Ivey. With its athleticism and size, Purdue presents a challenge for any team on the defensive end. Although 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey is not able to play extended minutes, he is very effective when he is on the court.

As a result of its offensive flair, Purdue is much higher on the odds board than the KenPom rankings. According to KenPom, Purdue ranks 13th with the No. 1 offense, but it is the defense that is hindering its efficiency. In adjusted defensive efficiency, Purdue ranks outside the top 100.

After losing two of three games to close out its Big Ten schedule, Purdue's odds have moved. Its longest price was +1100 prior to these games, now it is +1600 on FanDuel. Several experts believe the Boilermakers' poor defense will cost them in the NCAA Tournament.

Key wins: Villanova, Illinois

Auburn Tigers

Auburn is led by standout freshman forward Jabari Smith, who is expected to be the first overall selection in the 2022 NBA Draft. With North Carolina transfer Walker Kessler patrolling the paint, the Tigers also possess a strong interior defense.

Auburn began the year with odds of +5000 to win the National Championship. Similar to Arizona, the Tigers are a significant liability for sportsbooks due to their high opening number.

Key wins: Kentucky, Alabama

Kansas Jayhawks

The Jayhawks are led by senior guard Ochai Agbaji. While the Jayhawks have talent, I do not view them as serious contenders for the National Championship. This is a team I would be looking to bet against in the tournament.

Kansas opened the year at +1600, and that is where its odds remain.

Key wins: Texas Tech, Baylor

Duke Blue Devils

This will be Coach K's last March Madness before Jon Scheyer takes over head coaching duties. Duke has a number of star players, most notably freshmen forward Paolo Banchero.

North Carolina defeated Duke by 13 points on Saturday, March 5, ruining Coach K's retirement party. Not only did the Tar Heels ruin the party, but North Carolina put something on film for all of Duke's future opponents. The Tar Heels consistently attacked Duke with a high ball screen in the middle of the court, and Duke had no response defensively.

Duke boasts numerous NBA prospects, but its inefficiency on defense has me passing on the Blue Devils at a price of +1200.

Key wins: Gonzaga, Kentucky

Baylor Bears

Despite dealing with injuries the entire season, do not be misled. This team is capable of winning again. The top scorers for Scott Drew's team are guards Adam Flagler and James Akinjo.

With its 80-70 victory over Kansas, Baylor won the Big 12 regular-season championship and its odds of winning the National Championship shortened from +1800 to +1200.

Key wins: Villanova, Kansas, Texas

March Madness Value Picks

Villanova Wildcats

Villanova has seen its odds increase from where they opened. The Wildcats opened with odds of +1200 at BetMGM, and now they are available at +2500 via Caesars Sportsbook. However, you should not overlook Villanova. Guard play is crucial in March, and Collin Gillespie is one of the best in the country.

Key wins: UConn, Tennessee

Texas Tech Red Raiders

According to KenPom, Texas Tech has the number one defense by adjusted efficiency. This is a statistic that always results in success in March Madness. The Red Raiders have been fueled by the departure of Chris Beard to Texas and boast some of the more notable Quad 1 wins in college basketball.

Texas Tech struggled down the stretch, losing two of its last three games. It had a chance at the Big 12 regular-season championship if it didnโ€™t drop games to TCU and Oklahoma State over the last week.ย 

Key wins: Tennessee, Texas, Baylor, Kansas

UCLA Bruins

The Bruins' season has not been as successful as they had hoped due to Arizona stealing their thunder in the Pac-12. The odds for UCLA opened at +1200 but have since been raised to +2800. The Bruins' balance and guard play should make them very difficult to beat in March. They are one of just a few teams with both offensive and defensive ratings in the top 20 on KenPom.

Key wins: Villanova and Arizona

Illinois Fighting Illini

It is anticipated that the Big Ten will have around nine teams participating in the NCAA Tournament. This is the most of any conference, yet the Big Ten regular-season champion currently has odds of +5000 to win the NCAA Tournament. In a year that is wide open, this is a fairly high price for a team that won the most difficult conference. This is not a team I would like to face come March and the Illini could be a matchup nightmare for several teams due to the size and ability of Kofi Cockburn in the paint.

I really like the +950 that FanDuel is offering on Illinois making the Final Four. At DraftKings, Illinois is only +700.

Key wins: Wisconsin

Houston Cougars

Head coach Kelvin Sampson continues to win in Houston despite an early injury to his best player, Marcus Sasser. On the odds board, the Cougars are 13th; however, they are fifth on KenPom. While Houston ranks high in analytics, it has not defeated anyone of note. The Cougars' record in Quad 1 games is 0-3 and I do not anticipate backing them in March Madness.

Key wins: Oregon

Tennessee Volunteers

With a defensive efficiency rating that's top five in the NCAA, head coach Rick Barnes and the Volunteers are one of the top defensive teams in college basketball. Freshman guard Kennedy Chandler leads Tennessee in scoring. Barnes' teams, whether at Texas or Tennessee, have always performed well during the regular season, but they have never been successful in March Madness.

Key wins: Arizona, Kentucky

Arkansas Razorbacks

My attention is immediately drawn to the SEC when looking for longshots. Arkansas dominated the SEC-Big 12 Challenge. Defense wins in March and the Razorbacks rank well inside the top 20 in college basketball in defensive efficiency. Guard JD Notae makes tough shots and Eric Musselman has proven he is capable of coaching teams to deep runs in the NCAA Tournament.

The odds of Arkansas winning the National Championship opened the year at +3000. From mid-December into January, Arkansas lost five of six games, resulting in an immediate jump in the odds to the +8000 range. Since then, the Razorbacks have won 14 of 15 games, including a victory over the No. 1 ranked Auburn Tigers and No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats. In spite of their impressive win streak, their odds have never been shortened and they have been largely forgotten about by the sportsbooks.

Right now, the Razorbacks offer the best value of any longshot on the board. If they make a run in the SEC Championship, their odds may be adjusted back to the +3000 range. With Arkansas' current price point, I am inclined to bet on it at +5000 to win the National Championship and at +1300 to make the Final Four.

Key wins: Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky

Texas Longhorns

The odds of the Longhorns winning the National Championship began the season at +1600. Due to the addition of Beard on the sidelines, they were a very popular pick with futures bettors. Texas has failed to win big games and is only 5-8 in Quad 1 contests. Building a culture takes time, and Beard is definitely the right person for the job. Look at the foundation he laid at Texas Tech and how strong the program has continued to be after his departure. Despite the fact that 2022 may not be the year for the Longhorns, this program will be one to watch in the years to come.

Key wins: Tennessee, Kansas

Alabama Crimson Tide

Head coach Nate Oats' team is one of the most intriguing teams entering the NCAA Tournament. Having experienced guard play is essential to advancing deep in the tournament. In Jahvon Quinerly and Jaden Shackelford, Alabama has veteran guards. It is their style of play that allows the Crimson Tide to beat any team they face on any given night. However, they can also lose to anyone, and this has been the case for them this season.ย 

The Crimson Tide's odds have moved from +7000 to +8000 after losing to Texas A&M. At this point in the season, it is impossible to predict their performance. If I have a ticket on one of the favorites, I don't want Alabama in their bracket.

Key wins: Gonzaga, Houston, Tennessee, Baylor

March Madness Longshot Picks

Saint Maryโ€™s Gaels

The Gaels have arguably the most impressive win of any team this season, as they defeated top-ranked Gonzaga 67-57. In addition to winning against Gonzaga, the Gaels narrowly missed defeating Wisconsin earlier this season.

While I do not believe they will win the NCAA Tournament, their defense is strong enough that they may surprise everyone by reaching the Final Four. Considering the price of +2500 on PointsBet, I believe Saint Mary's is worth a wager to reach the Final Four.

Key wins: Gonzaga

Boise State Broncos

Defense wins in March, and Boise State has one of the top defenses in the NCAA. The Broncos rank in the top 15 in college basketball in terms of defensive efficiency. Their ability to defend the defensive glass is one of their main strengths. They rank third in offensive rebound percentage.

There is little chance that the Broncos will win the NCAA Tournament, but keep an eye on them for some plus-money moneyline prices and a potential run to the Sweet 16.

Key wins: San Diego State

Wooden Award Pick

Oscar Tshiebwe, F, Kentucky Wildcats (-400 via DraftKings)

My opinion is that this market is over and Oscar Tshiebwe will win the Wooden Award. In the toughest conference in the NCAA, Tshiebwe has been the most impressive player. He has not only been dominant on numerous occasions, but he has also been very consistent. Tshiebwe never takes a play off, and he is always a contributor in every game. Tshiebwe hasn't had fewer than 10 rebounds in 18 games.

If you are someone who enjoys data analysis, you also have this advantage when it comes to Tshiebwe: KenPom ranks him as the No. 1 player by a considerable margin. One player who has been placing pressure on Tshiebwe of late is Wisconsin swingman Johnny Davis. Currently, Davis is ranked 10th on KenPom's Player of the Year rankings.

In my opinion, this market is no longer actionable. There is no player at a plus money price who I would consider worth wagering on or even capable of stealing this award away from Tshiebwe at this point in the season. When it comes to betting Tshiebwe, I would never recommend taking any player at a price of -400 for a voting award.

March Madness Betting Strategies

Matchups are an important part of March Madness, as is where you get placed in a bracket. It is possible that teams you liked before Selection Sunday will face an impossible task and your opinion may need to be altered. Moreover, there will be other teams that you were not considering prior to viewing the brackets, and there may be a possibility for them to make a deep run based on their matchups. As soon as the brackets are released, the race will be on to analyze them quickly and buy the highest numbers possible on the futures board.

When you are backing one of the top teams, you should avoid teams with a style that makes them susceptible to upsets. In the past, top teams that had size and an interior presence did not suffer upsets the first weekend. They are able to convert their advantage on the inside into easy points and take care of business against inferior opponents. An elite team built around 3-point shooting is susceptible to an upset. Your tournament could be over with one bad night from behind the 3-point line.

When deciding who to bet on to win the National Championship, there is also the KenPom trend to consider. Among the last 19 champions, 18 finished with offensive and defensive efficiency inside the top 20. The only team to break this trend was the 2014 UConn Huskies. The following teams fit this trend this season:

  • Gonzaga
  • Arizona
  • Baylor
  • Houston
  • UCLA

As Selection Sunday approaches, projections in brackets become more accurate. You should examine these projections by bracket experts such as Joe Lunardi of ESPN and begin to take note of where these teams may be heading. You should avoid holding multiple futures tickets with teams from the same region.

In addition, if you are just beginning to buy futures tickets, you should pay attention to these projections and purchase teams headed for different regions.

NCAA Tournament History

When/Where is the 2021-22 NCAA Tournament?

Where to Bet on March Madness

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