March Madness Final Four Expert Picks: High-Scoring Affair in North Carolina-Duke

Here are our top March Madness expert picks for Saturday’s Final Four games. Who’ll advance to the National Championship?

Our college basketball experts select their top against the spread and Over/Under picks for the March Madness Final Four (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

March Madness Final Four Expert Picks

SEE ALSO: March Madness Picks, Odds, and Printable Bracket

Top March Madness Expert ATS Picks

Villanova +4 (-110 via DraftKings)

Villanova is coming off a horrendous shooting performance in a gritty Elite Eight win. The Wildcats shot 28.8% (15-52) from the field and became the first team to win an Elite Eight game while shooting under 30% from the floor since UCLA did it in 1971, per ESPN Stats & Info. In addition, the Wildcats lost second-leading scorer Justin Moore (14.8 ppg) to a torn Achilles. Not many are giving Villanova a chance to beat Kansas as a result of an ugly and bittersweet victory, but look for the Wildcats to use Moore’s victory as a rallying cry and for the veteran group to play inspired in New Orleans.

Villanova has owned the recent matchup with Kansas of late, winning four of the last five dating back to 2013. Two of those wins came in the NCAA Tournament (2016 Elite Eight, 2018 Final Four), and we look for Jay Wright’s style to once again give Bill Self headaches. Wright’s teams have always had the ability to stretch the floor with five perimeter shooters, which will once again force Jayhawks defenders like David McCormack away from the basket.

The Wildcats have a thin bench for the remainder of the tournament with Moore and freshman Jordan Longino out with a torn meniscus, so look for them to control the tempo and be comfortable initiating offense late in the shot clock. It will be tough to get out to a big lead on Villanova in a game that will likely feature minimal possessions. - Spector

Duke -4.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

The Blue Devils have always had incredible offensive talent but struggled to find balance on both ends of the floor. That has changed after impressive wins over superior defensive teams in Michigan State and Texas Tech. The Blue Devils are playing their best basketball of the season, illustrated by a dominant 78-69 win over Arkansas in the Elite Eight.

There are several things working against North Carolina in this game. The Tar Heels already scored a shocking upset over the Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium during the last game of the regular season. UNC overcame a nine-point deficit to earn a shocking 94-81 victory during Mike Krzyzewski's last home game as Duke head coach. It is very difficult to see the Tar Heels pulling a second consecutive upset over their archrival with so much at stake, especially after already defeating them just three weeks ago.

Krzyzewski made a huge move by inserting sophomore guard Jeremy Roach into the starting lineup for the NCAA Tournament. In the four games since that change, Roach has averaged 12.8 ppg with almost four assists per game, while playing at least 35 minutes in each of the four contests. This has given a structure to the Duke offense and provided the rest of their players a chance for maximum efficiency. Duke also owns a depth advantage in the frontcourt, with Mark Williams and Theo John available to limit the Tar Heels dominant forward Armando Bacot (16.5 ppg, 12.8 rpg). If Bacot gets into foul trouble, the Tar Heels will be at a huge interior disadvantage.

I cannot see a way that UNC wins this game. The coaching advantage and motivation factor are both with the Blue Devils, and this line is simply too low. I'm taking the Blue Devils and laying the points in this legendary battle between two bitter rivals. - Randle

North Carolina +4.5 (-110 via Caesars)

In this matchup, everyone will be quick to point out that it is destiny that Duke wins the National Championship in Coach K's last season as head coach. The trend is already evident, as early money is showing on Duke in this matchup. Duke opened as a 4-point favorite, and they have already been bet up to 4.5-points. While I appreciate the narrative, I will not risk my money on Duke when it comes to picking a side in this game.

North Carolina is not the same team that lost by 20 points to Duke at the Dean Dome in February. Hubert Davis has left his mark on this team; they have become cohesive, shoot more threes, and are playing excellent basketball.

In the final home game for Coach K, North Carolina defeated Duke by finding a weakness in an already vulnerable Duke defense and repeatedly attacking it. Duke had no response to the high ball screen and North Carolina had four players score over 20 points. If Duke does not adjust based on what happened last time, North Carolina could easily defeat them. I honestly do not think Coach K will make any dramatic adjustments, though he did display a 2-3 zone against Texas Tech in the Sweet 16.

I believe North Carolina is being undervalued because their power ranking is based on games from earlier in the season. This is not the same team we are watching in the NCAA Tournament that lost to Pittsburgh at home on Feb. 16. It might be worthwhile to wait until closer to game time before investing in this point spread. With all of the Duke money coming in you might be able to find a +5. For North Carolina bettors, a spread in which Duke would have to beat you by six points in order to cover the number is incredibly valuable. - Metler

Kansas -4 (-120 via PointsBet)

Kansas has failed to cover the point spread against two Big East opponents already during this NCAA Tournament. The Jayhawks’ Elite Eight win over Miami differed from wins over Creighton and Providence in the preceding two rounds in that the Jayhawks managed to pull away. KU used a dominant second-half performance to win in blowout fashion. 

Now, Bill Self’s team is set to face yet another Big East foe in the Final Four. While Villanova figures to be their most highly-regarded opponent to date after a cakewalk regional draw, Kansas figures to have all of the key advantages needed to win and cover. In fact, this line has already been bet up to favor KU by 4.5-points at the majority of sportsbooks in the market.

From a metrics standpoint, Kansas and Villanova ranked nearly identical this season as they rank seventh and ninth in KenPom respectively. However, from a talent standpoint, the Jayhawks appear to be superior. Kansas has one of the deepest rosters in the country. Ochai Agbaji may be the focal point, but KU has playmakers galore in both the front and backcourt. Christian Braun and Remy Martin provide a veteran presence at the guard positions. Meanwhile, the tandem of David McCormick and Jalen Wilson figures to present Villanova with significant matchup issues down low. 

Despite all of the love that the Big Ten got during the regular season, it was the Big 12 that stood out as the most rugged conference in college basketball. Kansas won both the Big 12 regular-season and tournament titles. Look for the talent to shine through against Villanova in this Final Four matchup. - John

Villanova +4.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

Kansas might be the best team and the lone No. 1 seed remaining in the NCAA Tournament field heading into the Final Four, but Villanova isn't going to go down without a fight. The point spread opened around Kansas -3 before ballooning up to 4.5 points at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday and I just don't agree with the movement.

The Jayhawks and Wildcats are virtually equal in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Villanova is ninth in the nation on the offensive side, Kansas is seventh. On defense, Villanova is 18th. Kansas is 17th. The significant difference comes in terms of the tempo with which these two sides play, but I believe Villanova's much more reserved pace will serve to benefit the Wildcats in their ability to keep this Final Four game close.

If the spread was within a single possession, I might lean toward Kansas. But at 4.5 points, that's drifting into a territory that I just don't believe is prudent when facing a Jay Wright defensive team. The Wildcats will slow this game down and challenge Kansas offensively in a tight, low-scoring finish. As the spread continues to increase, my intrigue leans more strongly toward the underdog Wildcats. - Schaeffer

SEE ALSO: March Madness Top Picks and Odds Heading into the Final Four

Top March Madness Expert O/U Picks

North Carolina-Duke Under 151 (-110 via FanDuel)

Duke and North Carolina’s two regular-season meetings totaled 154 and 175 points, making this 150.5 projected point total seem eerily low. However, rarely is a third meeting in the same season between two teams as high scoring as the first two, as each can likely recite the other’s playbook in their sleep. In addition, this game will not be played in the friendly confines of the Dean Dome or Cameron Indoor Stadium, but in the cavernous Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. We have seen depth perception at Final Four games in football stadiums give shooters issues, and we expect that to be one of the big reasons this game stays under the projected total.

Both Duke and UNC are playing great offensive basketball so far in the tournament, with each team averaging better than 79 points per game. But both have played tremendous defense as well, with the Tar Heels allowing more than 66 points just once in four games and Duke allowing just 69.8 ppg. The Blue Devils also have an ace up their sleeve with a zone defense they have used at times over the last two games. We can expect more wrinkles like that from each side entering this matchup, leading to a lower-scoring game. - Spector

North Carolina-Duke Over 151 (-110 via DraftKings)

This game's total opened at 149.5 and has quickly been bet up to 151 at most sportsbooks. The only sportsbook that still offers a 150.5 on the game total is DraftKings. As we approach game time, I expect to see this total continue to increase. KenPom projects this game to finish with a total of 154 points, and his number always impacts the odds.

The reason I favor the Over in this matchup is that multiple players have been able to score in their previous contests. In the two games in which North Carolina and Duke faced off this season, a total of ten different players scored in double figures for both teams. This indicates that each team's offensive production won't be dependent on a single player based on the way they play. Numerous players have been successful in producing offense against the defenses of North Carolina and Duke. Thus, our ability to hit the over will not be determined by one or two players, but by the efforts of the entire team.

In light of the current trend for the total, I would recommend the immediate purchase of Over 150.5. This is not a number that will remain available for very long if you intend to bet on the Over in this game. - Metler

North Carolina-Duke Over 151 (-110 via DraftKings)

There is really no other way to bet the total for the all-ACC Final Four showdown between rivals North Carolina and Duke. After all, these are two of the best offensive teams in the entire country we are talking about.

North Carolina hasn’t slowed down since dropping 94 on the Blue Devils in Mike Krzyzewski's final home game. Despite facing some solid defensive opponents on their run through the East Region, the eight-seed Tar Heels have twice surpassed 90 points and finished with no fewer than 69 in the NCAA Tournament thus far. 

On the Duke side of things, KenPom rates the Blue Devils as the most efficient offense in the entire country. Duek has been even more consistent throughout the tournament than UNC. In their four previous wins to reach the Final Four, the Blue Devils never scored fewer than 78 points. This included a 78-point performance against a Texas Tech team that was the best defensive squad in the country. 

Given the firepower of both teams and how the first two meetings between them went, it's no surprise that this over/under has been bet up after opening at 149.5. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the number climb higher still. - John

North Carolina-Duke Over 151 (-110 at DraftKings)

Points! Points! Points! That's what we've seen between Duke and North Carolina so far this season and it's what we're going to see in the compelling rivalry matchup in the Final Four on Saturday.

In two previous meetings this season, The Blue Devils and Tar Heels combined for 154 and 175 total points. Two dynamic offensive teams enter this contest with better ratings on that side of the floor than they do on the defensive end. These two teams aren't shy about upping the pace when necessary, which is especially true in the case of UNC's top 40 adjusted tempo.

The Tar Heels want to outscore their opponents. They were successful in doing it against Duke in Coach K's final game at Cameron Indoor, as UNC ran the Blue Devils and their departing legendary coach out of the gym in that one. Though UNC didn't initially grant the wishes of Duke stars Paolo Banchero and Wendell Moore Jr. when they said they wanted to see the Tar Heels for a rematch in the ACC Tournament final, the Heels have upped the ante in granting the Blue Devils a rematch.

With lofty anticipation and incredibly high stakes for both sides of the rivalry, there's no way this game isn't an offensive shootout for a spot in the national championship game. - Schaeffer

Where to Bet on March Madness

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

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