Impact of the Baker Mayfield Trade on Carolina Panthers’ 2022 Win Total

The Cleveland Browns traded Baker Mayfield, the former No. 1 draft pick, to the Carolina Panthers on Wednesday. In this article, we examine the impact that the trade has on the Panthers’ 2022 regular-season win total.

In response to the Browns’ acquisition of QB Deshaun Watson earlier this offseason, Mayfield has been granted his wish and has been traded to a new team. Around the time of the NFL draft, there were rumors that the Panthers were interested, but none of those rumors came to pass, until Wednesday.

It appears that the Panthers have changed their mind after viewing Sam Darnold and Matt Corral during OTAs, and they have opted to acquire the disgruntled Browns quarterback. 

Does Mayfield affect the Panthers’ win total? How have the odds changed?

Movement in the Panthers’ Win Total

In the opening line, the Panthers had a win total of 6 and the Under was slightly favored at -115. In light of the Panthers’ acquisition of Mayfield, the Panthers’ win total at FanDuel Sportsbook is now 6.5 with the Under favored at -125.

As a result of the trade of Mayfield to the Panthers, the win total has been adjusted by only half a game, which is a very small adjustment when you consider you have just added a brand-new starting quarterback to the roster. Following the trade of Mayfield, the sportsbooks do not expect much liability for the Over, which is why they have made such a small adjustment to the line.

Panthers: 6.5 Wins (+105/-125 via FanDuel)

Considering Mayfield’s public perception is at an all-time low, is there now value on the Over (+105) with the Panthers? In my opinion, yes, and this is coming from someone who traded Mayfield for a warm beer in a fantasy football dynasty league.

Regardless of what you think of Mayfield, I believe that this win total did not adjust nearly enough. Last season, the Panthers won five of twelve games that were started by Sam Darnold and PJ Walker. They went 0-5 in the five starts that Cam Newton made.

While Mayfield is at best an average starting quarterback, he contributes more to the point spread than Darnold, Walker, and Newton. Only moving this line by 0.5 wins is not nearly enough, and a lot of this is due to people’s negative perceptions of Mayfield.

This trade also reveals something about the Panthers that we were not aware of before, that they are not content with tanking. In this trade, head coach Matt Rhule and the front office are trying to save their jobs, and they intend to win. Anyone who is considering betting on the Over will also find this to be an encouraging sign.

Where to Bet on NFL Win Totals

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

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