The Boston Celtics are hefty favorites ahead of their Eastern Conference Finals Game 6 closeout opportunity against the Miami Heat with the total suggesting another defensive rock fight. We break it down with our top Celtics-Heat picks.
The Heat (9-7 ATS, 5-11 O/U) find themselves with their backs against the wall entering Friday’s Game 6 matchup with the Celtics. Miami squandered a five-point halftime lead on Wednesday and was thoroughly outclassed in the second half on its home floor. Now, the Heat must fight off elimination on the road to force a decisive Game 7. Given how apathetic the entire team has been offensively over the last two and a half games, it could be an uphill battle for head coach Erik Spoelstra’s group in Game 6.
Meanwhile, the Celtics (11-5 ATS, 7-9 O/U) are now on the brink of making their first NBA Finals appearance since 2010. Boston flipped the script in the third quarter of Wednesday’s game by doubling up the Heat on the scoreboard in the frame. Even though the C’s lost Games 1 and 3 of these Eastern Conference Finals, many NBA analysts argued that Boston was the better team all along. Based on the lopsided victories that head coach Ime Udoka’s team has earned in the last two contests, those claims are certainly credible.
The following offers my NBA betting picks and predictions for Friday’s Eastern Conference Finals Game 6 between the Heat and Celtics (odds via PointsBet, BetMGM, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Heat vs. Celtics Game Info
Date: Friday, May 27, 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Heat vs. Celtics Odds
Heat vs. Celtics Odds Analysis
After their dominant performance in the second half of Game 5, it was no surprise to see the Celtics open as decisive home favorites for Friday's game. Apparently, there are some sharp bettors out there who are still willing to get behind the Heat despite how ugly the last two games have been for them. An opening point spread that favored Boston by 9 points has come down to Celtics -8.5 at the vast majority of our top-rated sportsbooks.
As for the point total for Game 6, the opening line of 201 was the lowest we have seen for this series to date. After each of the first three games of the Eastern Conference Finals managed to cash the Over, the scoring outputs in the last two games have plummeted. The market consensus for Friday’s Game 6 has been nudged up half a point to 201.5.
At the time of writing, the ticket counts for both the Game 6 spread and total are actually quite balanced. Interestingly enough, 54% of all public ATS wagers have taken the points with the Heat as a road underdog. Meanwhile, 64% of all wagers on the total are on the Over but 53% of the cash is backing the Under. As for the moneyline, 61% of bets like the Celtics to close out the series at home on Friday.
Celtics-Heat Game 6 betting at @BetMGM @celtics opened -8.5, no movement
51% of tickets, 62% of handle on Boston
Total opened 200.5, now 201.5
— John Ewing
51% of tickets, 62% of handle on Boston
(@johnewing)
Heat vs. Celtics Picks
- Heat +9 (-110 via PointsBet) ★
- Under 201.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★★
- Jaylen Brown Over 6.5 rebounds (+106 via FanDuel) ★★★
Heat vs. Celtics Predictions
Heat +9 (-110)
After exiting Game 3 at halftime due to knee swelling, Heat guard Jimmy Butler has shot just 7-32 from the field in the two ensuing contests. As the only player on the Heat who is truly capable of creating his own shot, Butler's lack of explosiveness has all but doomed Miami's offense.
The Heat also have to be hoping that they will get Tyler Herro back for Friday night's game. A groin injury kept him out down the stretch of Game 3, and he missed each of the last two games as well. Considering how awful the starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and Max Strus has been in his absence, simply having Herro on the court in Friday's potential elimination game would have to be considered an upgrade.
After taking one on the chin in front of their home fans two days ago, one has to believe that Miami will put forth a solid effort in Game 6. With Butler playing hurt and hardly capable of making a full impact offensively, the Heat’s only option is to muck things up and turn these games ugly. They were able to do so in the first half of Game 5 before the wheels came off in the third quarter.
Boston's duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown gives Boston a decisive edge offensively over the Heat even when Butler is fully healthy. While everything seems to point toward the Celtics closing out the series, the 9-point spread is a bit hefty. The fact that most of the market has already moved to Celtics -8.5 further supports backing the underdogs. From a confidence standpoint, however, it’s hard to love either side.
Under 201.5 (-110)
Although this may be the lowest Over/Under we have seen yet in this Eastern Conference Finals matchup between two defensive-minded teams, it’s impossible to recommend betting the Over based on where things stand entering Game 6.
The fact that Butler is playing at far less than 100% factors heavily into this handicap. The Heat simply have no other consistent shot-makers in their primary rotation. Don’t be surprised if guard Victor Oladipo logs more minutes in Game 6 simply because he is capable of getting his own shot.
Oladipo has been a pleasure to watch defensively in this series and throughout the NBA Playoffs. Knowing that the Heat really need to force an ugly, low-scoring affair to have a shot at avoiding elimination, expect defense to be the primary focus from the onset of Friday’s matchup.
Speaking of defense, one really cannot say enough about the difference Robert Williams III makes for the Celtics inside as a rim protector. He came up huge in the Game 5 victory with 10 rebounds and three blocked shots. Heat center Bam Adebayo had 18 points and 10 boards, but Williams' presence helped to prevent him from completely taking over as he did in Game 3.
Although Williams and Celtics guard Marcus Smart are both questionable to play in Game 6, one has to like their prospects after both went into Wednesday’s contest with similar designations. Unless the Heat give up from the standpoint of guarding the perimeter and/or the Celtics are parading to the foul line, these two teams figure to be hard-pressed to combine for 200 total points at this stage of the series.
Brown Over 6.5 rebounds (+106)
In each of the past two games, a bet on Tatum to exceed 6.5 rebounds cashed at plus-money odds. The prices have shifted for Tatum ahead of Game 6, but the exact same opportunity now exists for Brown. The Over on 6.5 boards for Brown can be obtained at favorable prices reaching as high as +106 at the time of publishing.
The idea of Brown snatching at least seven rebounds in Friday’s matchup is hardly far-fetched. On the full season, the 25-year-old averaged 6.1 boards per game. He has mostly been flying over both that average and this prop total in these Eastern Conference Finals. While Brown had only four rebounds in Game 5, he managed to corral no fewer than seven in Games 1-4. Three of those contests saw him haul in eight rebounds or more.
It’s also worth noting that Brown has been even more consistent on the glass at home in these playoffs. Dating back to the start of the Celtics’ second-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks, Brown exceeded this prop line in five of six home games. The one time he fell short, he was still right on the doorstep with six boards.
Of course, the fact that Williams has rejoined the rotation has cut into the number of rebounding opportunities for wing players like Brown but the fact that the Heat can’t hit the broad side of a barn shooting naturally creates more chances to come up with rebounds. Considering the favorable plus-money odds we are getting, this is an Over prediction worth backing in Game 6.
Where to Bet on Heat-Celtics Picks
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Heat-Celtics picks made on 5/27/2022 at 12:17 p.m. ET.
The post Heat vs. Celtics Game 6 NBA Picks: Boston Set to Close at Home? appeared first on Picks.
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