Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Game 6 NBA Picks: Memphis Tries to Seal the Deal

The dunk heard ‘round the world put the Memphis Grizzlies on the fast track to a comeback victory against the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 5. Now, the Timberwolves look to extend their season to a winner-take-all series finale. Read on for our Grizzlies-Timberwolves Game 6 picks and predictions.

The second-seeded Memphis Grizzlies haven’t dominated their series against the Minnesota Timberwolves by any stretch of the imagination. They have, however, shown some remarkable resilience with their backs against the wall multiple times.

The emotional mood swings of this matchup between two elite offensive teams have been frequent. Now that it’s getting down to crunch time in the series, the Grizzlies may be primed to take control of the proceedings once and for all.

OH MY JA!!#NBAPlayoffs presented by Google Pixel on TNT pic.twitter.com/gR6IBaFsAw

— NBA (@NBA) April 27, 2022

Read on for our picks and predictions for Friday’s NBA Playoffs Game 6 matchup between the Grizzlies and Timberwolves (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Game Info

Date/Time: Friday, April 29, 9 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Odds

Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Odds Analysis

The Grizzlies opened as 2-point road favorites before moving to -1.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook and down to -1 at DraftKings. There’s no real public consensus on the way this game will play out, as the ticket count is nearly a dead-even 50/50 split with 56% of the money going for the Grizzlies. Memphis is a league-best 54-32-1 against the spread this season, while Minnesota checks in at 46-40-2 ATS.

The total for Game 6 opened at 229 and has remained there at FanDuel while rising by a half-point at DraftKings. We’ve seen drastic swings in the scoring pace throughout this series, but the public seems to be leaning narrowly toward a shootout for Game 6. We’ve seen 59% of the tickets and 56% of the money wagered side with the Over. Memphis games went Over to the tune of 44-39-4 this season, while Minnesota has seen the highest rate of Overs in the league at 52-36 on the campaign.

Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Picks

• Grizzlies -1 (-110) ★★★★★
• Under 229.5 (-110) ★★★★
• Ja Morant Over 8.5 assists (-134) ★★★★

SEE ALSO: All NBA Picks

Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Predictions

Grizzlies -1 (-110)

With one thunderous slam dunk, Grizzlies guard Ja Morant may have changed the entire complexion of this series. His monster jam to close the third quarter of Game 5 brought the Grizzlies to within 11 points of the Timberwolves but the vibes at FedEx Forum said otherwise. Morant’s moment catapulted a motivated Grizzlies group to a 37-24 fourth-quarter domination en route to a marvelous come-from-behind effort for the 111-109 win.

It was the second time in the series that the Grizzlies mounted a sizable comeback, having done it to the tune of a 37-12 fourth quarter in Game 3. That secured a 104-95 win. Can the Timberwolves possibly recover emotionally from having their lunch money stolen down the stretch of a critical game for the second time in the same series?

My money’s on the answer to that question being a resounding no. In similar fashion to the way the Phoenix Suns rose up on Thursday to ensure no do-or-die Game 7 in their home arena against the New Orleans Pelicans, I believe the Grizzlies are in a position to get the job done Friday by winning their second road game of this series. Minnesota’s offensive prowess has made the Timberwolves a legitimate threat in this series, but the Grizzlies have shown there’s simply no solution for the opposition when they are operating on all cylinders.

Memphis was fourth-best in the NBA this season at covering the spread on the road, going 26-16-1 against the spread as the away team. The Grizzlies have toyed around in multiple games throughout this series, but I’m looking for a wire-to-wire effort on Friday to confirm that Memphis is a true threat to emerge from the Western Conference bracket.

Under 229.5 (-110)

Three of the five games in this series finished comfortably below Friday's total of 229 at FanDuel. The other two outcomes played out as offensive eruptions, totaling 247 and 237 points.

The Grizzlies split the two previous games in Minnesota, showing proof of concept for their ability to win on the road in this environment. To do it, I believe Memphis will focus considerable energy on avoiding a shootout by playing stout defensively. The Grizzlies are a juggernaut offensively, certainly, but where they separate themselves from Minnesota can be on the defensive side, as they had the NBA's sixth-best defensive rating in the regular season despite playing at the league's fourth-highest pace.

It’s a matter of challenging ball-handlers and shot-makers to sap their energy that allows the Grizzlies to open up these gargantuan late-game runs. Though they needed the magical run in Game 3 in order to win, the 104-95 outcome and the 12 points allowed to the Timberwolves on their home floor in that fourth quarter represent the style of defense the Grizzlies will strive to recreate on Friday.

I’m looking for the total score to fall below an elevated 229 points on Friday. If Memphis clamps down defensively the way it did in Game 3 as I anticipate, we could be looking at a script in the range of 115-108. That leaves room for adequate offensive production from both sides, while still falling shy of the projected total.

Morant Over 8.5 assists (-134)

Morant was the star of the show for his poster-worthy dunk late in the third quarter of Game 5, but the reality of his scoring trends throughout the series is that he has been pretty inconsistent. The multiple 30-plus scoring outputs are great, but he also dipped down to 16 and 11 points in Games 3 and 4, respectively. Though I do look for Morant to have a big impact in Game 6, his point total at 26.5 simply isn’t an attractive wager given the drastic swings of his point production.

Where Morant has been consistently strong, however, has been with his assist totals. He has had only one game of the five in the series where he has fallen short of the 8.5-assist line set for Game 6. That was back in Game 1 when he still managed eight assists. Since, Morant has dished out 10, 10, 15, and 9 dimes.

I look for Morant to contribute more to the scoring than he did in Games 3 and 4, but I’m not confident enough that he escapes that 20-25-point range to bet the Over on his point total. I love Morant to sneak in another double-digit assist total to keep with the pace he has established on that front throughout this series.

Where to Bet on Grizzlies-Timberwolves Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Grizzlies-Timberwolves picks made 4/29/2022 at 2:10 p.m. ET.

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