After rallying from more than 20 points down in the second half of Game 3, momentum is on the side of the Memphis Grizzlies coming into Saturday’s NBA Playoffs Game 4. We look at whether Minnesota can bounce back in our Grizzlies-Timberwolves picks.
The nightcap to Saturday’s four-game NBA Playoffs slate is Game 4 of the Western Conference series between the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves.
After dropping Game 1 of this playoff series on their home floor, the Grizzlies (2-1 ATS, 1-2 O/U) have responded by taking each of the next two games. As a result, the Western Conference’s second seed has reestablished home-court advantage in this best-of-seven series. That’s not to say that the Grizzlies’ win in Game 3 on Thursday came easily, however. Memphis actually trailed by 25 points late in the third quarter before outscoring Minnesota 37-12 in the final frame to steal the road win.
After Thursday’s collapse, it will be very interesting to see how the Timberwolves (2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U) respond in Game 4 tonight. In actuality, the massive fourth-quarter collapse marked the second double-digit lead that the Wolves blew in Game 3. Minnesota also held an 18-point advantage after the first quarter of play, only to give almost all of it right back in the second frame. Scoring 12 points in one quarter is bad enough, let alone doing it twice.
The following offers my NBA picks and predictions for Saturday’s Western Conference Playoffs game between the Grizzlies and Timberwolves (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Game Info
Date: Saturday, April 23, 10 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Odds
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Odds Analysis
Oddsmakers opened the Grizzlies as a 3-point road favorite for Game 4. While the majority of sportsbooks still list Memphis -3 at the time of writing, bettors can find the Grizzlies laying only 2.5 points in some spots.
As for the total, a more profound and consistent adjustment has occurred. Opening lines listed the Over/Under at 233.5. Since then, the market has moved the needle down to 232.5. Bettors can even shop around and find 232 available at select sportsbooks.
In terms of ticket counts, the Grizzlies have been the preferred play for the majority of public bettors. This certainly makes sense given how the final quarter of Game 3 transpired. The public and sharps are also aligned on the Under, with that said of the total receiving 85% of the betting handle.
Grizzlies-Wolves Game 4 betting at @BetMGM @memgrizz opened -2.5, no movement
83% of tickets, 88% of handle on Grizzlies
Total opened 233.5, now 232.5
— John Ewing
83% of tickets, 88% of handle on Grizzlies
(@johnewing)
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Picks
- Timberwolves +3 (-115) ★★
- Under 232.5 (-110) ★★★
- D’Angelo Russell Under 7.5 assists (-120) ★★★
SEE ALSO: NBA Best Bets for Saturday
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Predictions
Timberwolves +3 (-115)
With much of the NBA betting market having already dropped this point spread to Grizzlies -2.5, it’s no surprise that the odds are juiced to the Timberwolves at DraftKings. As this is one of the few books still hanging on to a full 3-point spread, the value is in the number here as opposed to the price.
One could very easily make the argument that the Wolves will roll over and be done after Thursday night’s collapse. Not only did Minnesota blow its massive late-third quarter lead in the final frame, but the T-Wolves also nearly coughed up a similar double-digit advantage in the first half. Bouncing back from a loss that featured not one but two collapses isn’t for the faint of heart.
Although the Timberwolves have limited postseason experience as a team, one player who does is guard Patrick Beverley. He has been to the NBA Playoffs in every year of his career thus far. Pat Bev is the kind of locker room voice and leader that a young team needs after an epic collapse like the one the Wolves endured two nights ago.
The other key element to consider is that Game 4 is also on the Wolves’ home court in Minneapolis. Had Minnesota had to play the next game on the road after Thursday’s blown lead, bouncing back would probably be much more difficult.
In order to blow the massive leads in Game 3, the Timberwolves first had to build them. The fact that they did so despite getting only eight points from star center Karl-Anthony Towns in the game makes it all the more impressive. Look for the Timberwolves to put up a strong fight in Game 4.
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Under 232.5 (-110)
Based on how this series has gone so far, the posted total of 232.5 is simply too high to play anything but the Under. Even with the market dropping this line one full point from the opening number, the Under remains the play.
Both the Grizzlies and Timberwolves have been prone to inconsistency on the offensive end. Scoring just 12 points in two different quarters of a single game doesn’t exactly bode well for cashing Over bets! At the same time, both sides deserve some recognition for what they’ve been able to do defensively.
Game 1 of this series has been the only one to eclipse Saturday's projected total. The fact that both teams shot above 45% from the field in that contest is a big reason why. Minnesota knocked down over 50% of its field-goal attempts en route to the victory. We have seen shooting percentages regress for both sides in the subsequent matchups.
The one statistical area in which both teams trend toward high-scoring affairs is pace. On the full season, the Wolves actually topped the league with a pace factor of 103.5 possessions used per game. The Grizzlies weren’t far behind, averaging 103.1 possessions used per contest.
So often, playoff basketball proves to be an entirely different beast than that which is played during the regular season. This series has been no exception. A slower tempo and heightened defensive intensity figure to require shooting percentages well above average for Game 4 to exceed this lofty point total.
Russell Under 7.5 assists (-120)
From a statistical standpoint, Timberwolves guard D'Angelo Russell played easily his best game of this series on Thursday. Along with scoring 22 points to lead all Minnesota players, he also dished out eight assists in the loss. This was the second time in the first three games of the series in which Russell managed to exceed Saturday's prop line of 7.5 helpers. He also had nine assists in Minnesota's Game 1 win.
Despite the success that Russell has achieved as a playmaker thus far, there is reason to believe that he will likely fall short of the Game 4 line. Russell averaged only 7.1 assists per game over the course of the full season. Thus, he again will need to exceed that average by nearly one full assist to cash the Over.
With Beverley and guard Anthony Edwards also doing plenty of ball-handling, Russell is hardly Minnesota’s full-time point guard. Add in the fact that the Grizzlies are a top-five defense in terms of efficiency and it becomes even more difficult to rationalize Russell breezing over his assists average for the third time in four games.
Where to Bet on Grizzlies-Timberwolves Picks
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Grizzlies-Timberwolves picks made on 4/23/2022 at 12:05 p.m. ET.
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