The San Francisco Giants’ six-game winning streak came to an end in St. Louis on Saturday, and they’ll be on the hunt for revenge on Sunday with one of the game’s best pitchers getting the nod. Check out our Giants-Cardinals picks.
San Francisco was shut out on Saturday for just the second time all year, and the Cardinals really needed that win. They lost five of six prior to the victory and have been struggling at the plate. St. Louis will get Adam Wainwright back off the COVID-19 list on Sunday, which is sure to provide a nice boost.
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Sunday’s game between the Giants and Cardinals (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Giants vs. Cardinals Game Info
Date: Sunday, May 15, 7:08 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Weather: 75 degrees, wind 8 mph left to right
Giants vs. Cardinals Odds
Giants vs. Cardinals Odds Analysis
This line hasn’t moved much. It opened around Cardinals -144, but you can find -140 at various sportsbooks. That price is still available at DraftKings, which is reporting 47% of the tickets but 67% of the handle on the Giants.
Perhaps in an effort to take advantage of the rumor regarding the baseballs used for prime-time games, the Over has been hit by the public. It opened at seven runs, and while seven is still the consensus, you’ll have to pay a pretty penny to bet it.
Giants vs. Cardinals Projected Pitchers
Carlos Rodon (4-1, 1.80 ERA) vs. Adam Wainwright (3-3, 3.18 ERA)
Rodon has been ridiculous. He’s allowed seven earned runs in six starts, striking out 53 in total. That’s 39.3% of the batters he’s faced. His peripherals are solid, including a 2.03 xERA and .184 expected batting average, according to Statcast.
Meanwhile, Wainwright has been pretty good this year. Even at 40 years old, he’s been able to give St. Louis a chance to win almost every time out. In his three losses, he allowed three, four, and four earned runs. He’s allowed just one run in his three other starts.
Giants vs. Cardinals Picks
- Moneyline: Giants (-140 via DraftKings) ★★★★★
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-115 via PointsBet) ★★★★
- Prop: Rodon Under 7.5 strikeouts (-105 via DraftKings) ★★★★
Giants vs. Cardinals ML Pick
Giants (-140)
The Giants are hitting the baseball, and the Cardinals are not. OK, they’re technically hitting the ball but with one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league.
St. Louis ranks third-worst in barrels per plate appearance and has the second-lowest expected wOBA in the league. The Cardinals are getting over-eager at the plate, swinging out of the zone and failing to put the ball in positions where it can do damage. They’re not even walking higher than the league average.
San Francisco is 11th in wRC+ and ninth in expected wOBA. On top of that, they have arguably the best pitcher in the game going in Rodon. Not only has he been excellent at striking hitters out with a near-40% strikeout rate, but he’s also backed that up with a 2.03 xERA and a very low expected batting average and expected wOBA. You’re either whiffing or putting the ball in play to a fielder against this guy. The Cardinals don't stand much of a chance.
Giants vs. Cardinals O/U Pick
Over 7 (-115)
Maybe the Cardinals score a run or two. Rodon has allowed a hard-hit rate over 44%, which hasn't affected him to this point but could be good news for a team that makes so much contact.
Then, there’s the issue of Wainwright against this potent Giants offense, which had been good for at least four runs per game prior to Saturday’s shutout. Wainwright’s whiff rate is in the bottom 4% of the league and it seems impossible that he makes it out of this one unscathed.
Wainwright’s .362 xwOBA on contact makes his low hard-hit rate look irrelevant, and it just means hitters have been able to get the ball over the infielders and into the outfield for easy base hits while struggling to drive the ball and pick up extra-base knocks. In more ways than one, this is not going to set up well for a low-scoring game.
Giants vs. Cardinals Prop Bet
Rodon Under 7.5 strikeouts (-105)
Rodon has gone Over seven strikeouts in all but one start this year, but I can’t get behind him striking out a large number of Cardinals. They’ve actually been OK against lefties with a 131 wRC+ and a low strikeout rate of around 20%.
Against all pitchers, St. Louis has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league. The lefty’s punchouts are a bit inflated here because of some bad competition. He shouldn't truggle to get Cardinals out, but there will be a lot of contact.
Daily Betting Picks
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Giants-Cardinals picks made on 5/15/2022 at 2:22 p.m. ET.
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