Final Four Best Bets: Top Player Props and Team Totals for March Madness

It is down to four teams in the NCAA Tournament, and only one can have its one shining moment. We have selected our picks and best bets for the final weekend of the NCAA Tournament as tip-off approaches and the Final Four kicks off.

Our first game on Saturday night features the Kansas Jayhawks, who are 4.5-point favorites over the Villanova Wildcats. Kansas opened as a 3-point favorite, but after Villanova lost its second-leading scorer, guard Justin Moore, this line has been pushed all the way up to 4.5. As of Wednesday afternoon, 74% of the money is on Kansas to cover the point spread.

SEE ALSO: March Madness Top Picks and Odds

In the second game on Saturday night, the Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels will play each other for the first time in the NCAA Tournament. Duke opened as a 4-point favorite and the line has remained at -4 ever since. More than 63% of bets are placed on North Carolina for the point spread with the majority of bettors taking the points. Duke backers have opted to use the moneyline instead of the spread, as 89% of the cash is on Duke to win outright.

Saturday will be the 100th game between Duke and North Carolina since Coach K was hired in 1980.

This rivalry never disappoints

(h/t @awaytoworthy) pic.twitter.com/ARDp3oB69Y

— ACC Network (@accnetwork) March 30, 2022

Here are some of our top picks for the Final Four in New Orleans, LA, as you examine the betting market and search for your best bets.

March Madness Final Four Best Bets: Player Props

Jermaine Samuels Over 14.5 points (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Villanova forward Jermaine Samuels has been outstanding in the NCAA Tournament and was named the MVP of the South Regional when Villanova defeated Houston in the Elite Eight. The Villanova offense will have more opportunities due to Moore’s absence due to a ruptured Achilles’ tendon, and Samuels is someone who should benefit from these opportunities.

Even with Moore in the lineup, Samuels exceeded this point total in all four games of the NCAA Tournament. In his game against Houston, which has one of the best interior defenses in college basketball, Samuels scored 16 points to go Over this 14.5-point total. The fact that he scored 16 points in his last game against Houston speaks volumes about his current level of play, as Houston ranks third in the country in block percentage and sixth in 2-point field goal defense.

I find it surprising to see a total of 14.5 points for Samuels, along with juice of -120 on the Under. As the total remains at 14.5, I believe the Over provides tremendous value to bettors at the -110 price point.

SEE ALSO: March Madness Final Four Prop Bets

Mark Williams Over 9.5 rebounds (-110 via DraftKings)

Duke center Mark Williams has surpassed this rebounding total in just one of his four games he has played during the NCAA Tournament but that came in the Elite Eight. He grabbed 12 rebounds in a personal tournament-high of 35 minutes against Arkansas.

Coach K's decision to use a shorter bench throughout the tournament and rely more heavily on his starters can be attributed to his higher rebounding numbers. Williams was only averaging 23.8 minutes per game on the year, but in the NCAA Tournament, he is averaging 31.8 minutes per game.

SEE ALSO: March Madness Final Four Expert Picks

In his last game against North Carolina, Williams grabbed 13 rebounds. Once again, I am puzzled by the pricing of the player props. This total is significantly too low for Williams at 9.5, and the Under is also juiced to -120. With a total of 9.5 and the Over priced at -110, this wager is one of my favorite props for the Final Four.

Mark Williams is showing OUT

We've got a game #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/yYMKfSVjec

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 27, 2022

R.J. Davis Over 13.5 points (-105 via DraftKings)

Bettors will be quick to jump on forward Armando Bacot Jr., guard Caleb Love, and forward Brady Manek totals when looking at North Carolina's player props for the Final Four. Love scored 30 points against UCLA in the Sweet 16 while Bacot was the East Regional MVP. It is understandable why these players would get a lot of attention, but we should pay more attention to Davis' props against Duke.

During North Carolina's 13-point victory over Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium to end the regular season, it was Davis who caused all kinds of problems for Duke's defense. With head coach Hubert Davis constantly running high ball screens, Davis was able to penetrate the defense, which led to a number of scoring opportunities. Davis played all 40 minutes against Duke, scoring 21 points on 16 field goal attempts.

SEE ALSO: North Carolina vs. Duke Picks

These player prop point totals are based on season averages, not matchups. Davis is averaging 13.4 points per game this season, hence the 13.5-point total on his player prop. There is no doubt that Davis will have an excellent matchup against Duke, so the total of 13.5 points is far too low. As an added bonus, the Under 13.5 is juiced to -125. With the current total at 13.5 and the Over carrying odds of -105, I am extremely intrigued.

March Madness Final Four Best Bets: Team Totals

Villanova Over 64.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

Villanova is missing one of its leading scorers, eleven of the 12 games went under the projected total during the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, and the shooting backdrop for the Final Four is poor in a football stadium. I've heard all the narratives. How quickly we forget what happened last time head coach Jay Wright's offense played Kansas in a football stadium during the Final Four. The Wildcats hit 18 threes, had six players score in double figures, and won 95-79.

Villanova's team total is way too low at 64.5 points. KenPom predicts the Wildcats will score 69 points. As long as the number stays at 64.5, I believe there is a ton of value in playing the Over on this total, especially with it juiced to -120 on the Under.

NCAA Tournament History

Where to Bet on March Madness Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

The post Final Four Best Bets: Top Player Props and Team Totals for March Madness appeared first on Picks.