Does Chris Paul’s Injury Create Opening for Warriors in Western Conference Futures Markets?

Even though Chris Paul suffered an avulsion fracture in his thumb, the Phoenix Suns are still neck-and-neck with the Golden State Warriors in the NBA futures markets. Where’s the value?

Phoenix Suns point guard Chris Paul is going to be re-evaluated in six-to-eight weeks due to an avulsion fracture in his right thumb.

The 36-year-old has been having an outstanding season for the Suns, leading the team to a league-best 48-10 record. He is leading the NBA with 10.7 assists per game and the Suns are destroying the opposition with Paul on the floor, with offensive and defensive ratings estimating that the Suns score 123 points per 100 possessions while allowing 105 points per 100 possessions.

Basketball-Reference has Paul fourth in its NBA MVP Tracker, and he was priced at +2500 (the sixth shortest odds) on BetMGM last week. Missing a couple of months is going to end Paul’s MVP case but it does indicate how big the hole will be in the Suns’ backcourt.

Below, we look at the latest odds for the Suns to win the NBA Championship, and where they stand in the Western Conference futures markets.

Suns Still Championship Favorites

Title odds hold steady

A week ago, the Suns and Golden State Warriors were co-favorites for in the NBA title futures market, priced at +460 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Even in the wake of Paul's injury, the Suns still have slightly shorter championship odds than the Warriors at most books. BetMGM is the only exception across our top sportsbook, with the Warriors priced at +425 compared to the Suns’ +450 odds.

Western Conference odds, too

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Injuries Add Uncertainty

There appears to be an assumption that Paul will surely return at full strength in time for the NBA Playoffs because the Suns and Warriors are very similarly priced across the marketplace, with BetMGM again being the only book to give a slight edge to the Warriors.

Perhaps this timing should not be just waved away. Reports are that Paul will be re-evaluated in about two months and the NBA regular season is going to end in a little more than six weeks. Maybe Paul will be well-rested and ready to go then, but that does add a level of uncertainty.

When comparing to the Warriors, specifically, that uncertainty might also exist with Warriors forward Draymond Green. He has not played since Jan. 9 due to a back injury. He is hoping to return in three-to-four weeks.

Paul and Green are massively important to their respective teams so whichever one is healthier for the postseason (or before), could be the edge between two teams that remain very similarly priced.

Can Suns Be Caught in Futures Markets?

While it is reasonable to expect that Paul could be back in the lineup at least early in the playoffs, the odds say the Suns are still co-favorites for the title. The more immediate question is whether the Suns, far ahead of the competition, can maintain their lead in the Pacific Division.

As of Thursday, Feb. 24, the Suns are 48-10. They own a 6.5-game lead over the 42-17 Warriors and have 24 games remaining. Because there is so little time remaining, they remain lopsided favorites to win the division.

In the short term, the Suns are at the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday, followed by home games against the New Orleans Pelicans, Utah Jazz, Portland Trail Blazers, and New York Knicks. Aside from Utah, the others should give the Suns a chance to get accustomed to life without Paul. If the Suns were to falter and play .500 basketball the rest of the way, that might open the door for the Warriors to catch them.

The Warriors might have missed an opportunity. They lost four of five games going into the All-Star break and that has allowed the Suns to pull ahead. At the same time, the Warriors could be favored in 18-20 of their remaining 23 games. A strong finish to the regular season could still have them challenging the Suns if Phoenix takes time to adjust.

The Suns and Warriors meet only once more during the regular season, March 30 in San Francisco.

Pacific Division odds

Since the NBA Championship and Western Conference odds have not changed dramatically, it is still viable to react once we have an indication of what the Suns are like without Paul. When it comes to the division prices, though, it might be worth a sprinkle on the Warriors now. The +800 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook or Caesars Sportsbook are at least intriguing.

Suns Prop Value

Not only is Paul out of the Suns' lineup, but so too is guard Cameron Payne. That means Elfrid Payton moves into the starting lineup. As a starter for the New York Knicks last season, Payton averaged 10.1 points and 3.2 assists per game. It was his sixth straight season scoring in double figures before becoming a bit player with the Suns this season. In the short term, Payton will have a chance to put up some better point totals. Prior to last season, he had back-to-back campaigns with at least seven assists per game.

Guard Devin Booker is averaging 25.5 points per game in his fifth straight season putting up more than 24 points per game. However, he has not been as efficient. Booker is shooting 44.6% from the field and has a .509 effective field goal percentage, both marks are his lowest since 2017-2018. 

With Paul out, Booker is likely to take over more ball-handling duties for the Suns. A boost in his scoring and assist rates would be reasonable; however, he is already averaging a career-high 20.8 field goal attempts per game. It might be worth considering fourth-year center Deandre Ayton, who would have room to add more touches to his offensive game.

Where to Bet on NBA Western Conference Futures

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

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